Publications by category
Books
Nicholls RJ, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen S (2020). Deltas in the Anthropocene. London, Palgrave.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Adger WN, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018).
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis. London, Palgrave Macmillan.
Abstract:
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012).
Living with environmental change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in vietnam.Abstract:
Living with environmental change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in vietnam
Abstract.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities. London, Government Office of Science.
Wreford A, Moran D, Adger N (2010).
Climate change and agriculture: Im pacts, adaptati on and mitigation.Abstract:
Climate change and agriculture: Im pacts, adaptati on and mitigation
Abstract.
Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (2009).
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance., Cambridge Univ Press.
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Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance
Abstract.
Adger WN, Jordan A (eds)(2009).
Governing Sustainability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
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Governing Sustainability
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Adger WN, Paavola J, Huq S, Mace MC (2006).
Fairness in adaptation to climate change., the MIT Press.
Abstract:
Fairness in adaptation to climate change
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Brown K, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2002).
Making Waves: Integrating Coastal Conservation and Development. London, Earthscan.
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Making Waves: Integrating Coastal Conservation and Development
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Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2001).
Living with Environmental Change: Social Resilience, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Vietnam., Routledge.
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Living with Environmental Change: Social Resilience, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Vietnam
Abstract.
Turner RK, Bateman IJ, Adger WN (2001). The Economics of Water and Coastal Resources: Valuing Ecosystem Services. Dordrecht, Kluwer.
Adger WN, Pettenella D, Whitby MC (1997).
Climate-change mitigation and European land-use policies. Wallingford, CABI.
Abstract:
Climate-change mitigation and European land-use policies
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K (1994).
Land Use and the Causes of Global Warming. Chichester, Wiley.
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Land Use and the Causes of Global Warming
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Journal articles
Jolivet D, Fransen S, Adger WN, Fábos A, Abu M, Allen C, Boyd E, Carr ER, Codjoe SNA, Gavonel MF, et al (2023). COVID-19 responses restricted abilities and aspirations for mobility and migration: insights from diverse cities in four continents.
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications,
10(1).
Abstract:
COVID-19 responses restricted abilities and aspirations for mobility and migration: insights from diverse cities in four continents
AbstractResearch on the impacts of COVID-19 on mobility has focused primarily on the increased health vulnerabilities of involuntary migrant and displaced populations. But virtually all migration flows have been truncated and altered because of reduced economic and mobility opportunities of migrants. Here we use a well-established framework of migration decision-making, whereby individual decisions combine the aspiration and ability to migrate, to explain how public responses to the COVID-19 pandemic alter migration patterns among urban populations across the world. The principal responses to COVID-19 pandemic that affected migration are: 1) through travel restrictions and border closures, 2) by affecting abilities to move through economic and other means, and 3) by affecting aspirations to move. Using in-depth qualitative data collected in six cities in four continents (Accra, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dhaka, Maputo, and Worcester), we explore how populations with diverse levels of education and occupations were affected in their current and future mobility decisions. We use data from interviews with sample of internal and international migrants and non-migrants during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak to identify the mechanisms through which the pandemic affected their mobility decisions. The results show common processes across the different geographical contexts: individuals perceived increased risks associated with further migration, which affected their migration aspirations, and had reduced abilities to migrate, all of which affected their migration decision-making processes. The results also reveal stark differences in perceived and experienced migration decision-making across precarious migrant groups compared to high-skilled and formally employed international migrants in all settings. This precarity of place is particularly evident in low-income marginalised populations.
Abstract.
Szaboova L, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Maharjan A, Sakdapolrak P, Sterly H, Conway D, Codjoe SNA, Abu M (2023). Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: Trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability.
One Earth,
6(6), 620-631.
Abstract:
Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: Trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability
The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option.
Abstract.
Quinn T, Heath S, Adger WN, Abu M, Butler C, Codjoe SNA, Horvath C, Martinez-Juarez P, Morrissey K, Murphy C, et al (2023). Health and wellbeing implications of adaptation to flood risk.
Ambio,
52(5), 952-962.
Abstract:
Health and wellbeing implications of adaptation to flood risk
Adaptation strategies to ameliorate the impacts of climate change are increasing in scale and scope around the world, with interventions becoming a part of daily life for many people. Though the implications of climate impacts for health and wellbeing are well documented, to date, adaptations are largely evaluated by financial cost and their effectiveness in reducing risk. Looking across different forms of adaptation to floods, we use existing literature to develop a typology of key domains of impact arising from interventions that are likely to shape health and wellbeing. We suggest that this typology can be used to assess the health consequences of adaptation interventions more generally and argue that such forms of evaluation will better support the development of sustainable adaptation planning.
Abstract.
Adger WN (2023). Loss and Damage from climate change: legacies from Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh.
Scottish Geographical Journal,
139(1-2), 142-149.
Abstract:
Loss and Damage from climate change: legacies from Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh
Conferences of the UN climate change convention have legacies both in formal outcomes and treaties and in raising the profile of emerging climate dilemmas. The joint legacies of COP26 in Glasgow and COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh have been in elevating the profile and formalising the potential for solidaristic action on ‘Loss and Damage’ from climate change. This article reviews the documented outcomes on Loss and Damage from the two events to analyse the significance and constraints of this element of the overall climate change regime. Loss and Damage is likely to be constrained as a global collective action by the capacity to identify and measure losses and damages and by the ability of the climate change regime to deliver on meaningful resource transfers. Yet the formalisation of elements of climate justice through Loss and Damage is a real and lasting legacy of these COP events.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Barnett J, Heath S, Jarillo S (2022). Climate change affects multiple dimensions of well-being through impacts, information and policy responses. Nature Human Behaviour, 6(11), 1465-1473.
Chapin FS, Weber EU, Bennett EM, Biggs R, van den Bergh J, Adger WN, Crépin AS, Polasky S, Folke C, Scheffer M, et al (2022). Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts.
Ambio,
51(9), 1907-1920.
Abstract:
Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts
Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.
Abstract.
Levin SA, Anderies JM, Adger N, Barrett S, Bennett EM, Cardenas JC, Carpenter SR, Crepin A-S, Ehrlich P, Fischer J, et al (2022). Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond.
ECOSYSTEMS,
25(3), 697-711.
Author URL.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Agrawal A, Brown K, Hornsey MJ, Hughes TP, Jain M, Lemos MC, McHugh LH, O’Neill S, et al (2022). Radical interventions for climate-impacted systems. Nature Climate Change, 12(12), 1100-1106.
Lu C, Zhang S, Tan C, Li Y, Liu Z, Morrissey K, Adger WN, Sun T, Yin H, Guo J, et al (2022). Reduced health burden and economic benefits of cleaner fuel usage from household energy consumption across rural and urban China.
Environmental Research Letters,
17(1), 014039-014039.
Abstract:
Reduced health burden and economic benefits of cleaner fuel usage from household energy consumption across rural and urban China
Abstract
. Energy consumption in the residential sector is increasing rapidly in China. This study applies an integrated assessment model to investigate the adverse impacts of household energy consumption by various fuel types across rural and urban areas on age- and sex-specific premature deaths associated with PM2.5 pollution at provincial levels for 2015. We further estimate the economic and health co-benefits of a switch from solid fuels to electricity within households. We find that energy consumed by Chinese urban households is nearly 1.6 times than that of rural households. However, premature deaths due to household energy usage is 1.1 times higher in rural areas compared to urban areas due to direct use of coal for heating in rural households. The majority of household consumption-related premature deaths are predominately in the Southern area of China due to the population size and aging population. By replacing coal and biomass with electricity, this paper estimates economic benefits equal to 0.09% (95% CI: 0.08%–0.1%) GDP for rural areas and 0.006% (0.005%–0.007%) of GDP for urban areas of China. The results suggest that mitigation measures such as the promotion and subsidization of cleaner fuels, modern stove within rural households would yield these potential significant economic benefits.
Abstract.
Lu C, Adger WN, Morrissey K, Zhang S, Venevsky S, Yin H, Sun T, Song X, Wu C, Dou X, et al (2022). Scenarios of demographic distributional aspects of health co-benefits from decarbonising urban transport.
The Lancet Planetary Health,
6(6), e461-e474.
Abstract:
Scenarios of demographic distributional aspects of health co-benefits from decarbonising urban transport
Background: There is limited knowledge on the distribution of the health co-benefits of reduced air pollutants and carbon emissions in the transport sector across populations. Methods: This Article describes a health impact assessment used to estimate the health co-benefits of alternative land passenger transport scenarios for the city of Beijing, China, testing the effect of five transport-based scenarios from 2020 to 2050 on health outcomes. New potential scenarios range from implementing a green transport infrastructure, to scenarios primarily based on the electrification of vehicle fleets and a deep decarbonisation scenario with near zero carbon emissions by 2050. The health co-benefits are disaggregated by age and sex and estimated in monetary terms. Findings: the results show that all the alternative mitigation scenarios result in reduced PM2·5 and CO2 emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario during 2020–50. The near zero scenario achieves the largest health co-benefits and economic benefits annually relative to the sole mitigation strategy, preventing 300 (95% CI 229–450) deaths, with health co-benefits and CO2 cost-saving an equivalent of 0·01% (0·00–0·03%) of Beijing's Gross domestic product in 2015 by 2050. Given Beijing's ageing population and higher mortality rate, individuals aged 50 years and older experience the greatest benefit from the mitigation scenarios. Regarding sex, the greatest health benefits occur in men. Interpretation: This assessment provides estimates of the demographic distribution of benefits from the effects of combinations of green transport and decarbonising vehicles in transport futures. The results show that there are substantial positive health outcomes from decarbonising transport in Beijing. Policies aimed at encouraging active travel and use of public transport, increasing the safety of active travel, improving public transport infrastructure, and decarbonising vehicles lead to differential benefits. In addition, disaggregation by age and sex shows that the health impacts related to transport pollution disproportionately influence different age cohorts and genders. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China and FRIEND Project (through the National Research Foundation of Korea, funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT).
Abstract.
Quinn T, Adger WN, Butler C, Walker-Springett K (2021). Community Resilience and Well-Being: an Exploration of Relationality and Belonging after Disasters.
Annals of the American Association of Geographers,
111, 577-590.
Abstract:
Community Resilience and Well-Being: an Exploration of Relationality and Belonging after Disasters
© 2020 by American Association of Geographers. Community resilience is commonly held to be critical for coping with adversity and disturbance. Although the process of community resilience is often contested and critiqued, the enactment of social relations within communities has been shown to ameliorate the worst impacts of disaster events on the well-being of their members. Here, we propose that well-being in the aftermath of disasters is shaped by processes of relationality and belonging within communities. This study uses data from longitudinal mixed-methods research with flood-affected communities in southwest and eastern England directly affected by long-duration and high-impact floods. Analysis from in-depth interviews conducted over eighteen months and from cross-sectional surveys of affected populations shows that active belonging and relational capital are related to self-reported well-being. The results further show that active belonging is consistently significant for well-being, whereas relational capital is only significantly correlated to well-being later in the recovery period, and that social identity processes are central in the link between community dynamics and well-being. The changing identity processes include altered perceptions of community membership and the use of collective identities to frame personal experience. These results suggest that community resilience processes and their relationship to individual well-being are not fixed but evolve through stress, trauma, and renewal.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Safra De Campos R, Siddiqui T, Franco Gavonel M, Szaboova L, Rocky MH, Bhuiyan MRA, Billah T (2021). Human security of urban migrant populations affected by length of residence and environmental hazards.
Journal of Peace Research,
58(1), 50-66.
Abstract:
Human security of urban migrant populations affected by length of residence and environmental hazards
it is widely suggested that migration is a key mechanism linking climate change to violent conflict, particularly through migration increasing the risks of conflict in urban destinations. Yet climate change also creates new forms of insecurity through distress migration, immobility and vulnerability that are prevalent in urban destination locations. Here we examine the extent and nature of human security in migration destinations and test whether insecurity is affected by length of residence and environmental hazards. The study develops an index measure of human security at the individual level to include environmental and climate-related hazards as well as sources of well-being, fear of crime and violence, and mental health outcomes. It examines the elements of human security that explain the prevalence of insecurity among recent and established migrants in low-income urban neighbourhoods. The study reports on data collected in Chattogram in Bangladesh through a survey of migrants (N = 447) and from qualitative data derived using photo elicitation techniques with cohorts of city planners and migrants. The results show that environmental hazards represent an increasing source of perceived insecurity to migrant populations over time, with longer-term migrants perceiving greater insecurity than more recent arrivals, suggesting lack of upward social mobility in low-income slums. Ill-health, fear of eviction, and harassment and violence are key elements of how insecurity is experienced, and these are exacerbated by environmental hazards such as flooding. The study expands the concept of security to encompass central elements of personal risk and well-being and outlines the implications for climate change.
Abstract.
Lau JD, Song AM, Morrison T, Fabinyi M, Brown K, Blythe J, Allison EH, Adger WN (2021). Morals and climate decision-making: insights from social and behavioural sciences.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,
52, 27-35.
Abstract:
Morals and climate decision-making: insights from social and behavioural sciences
Decisions about climate change are inherently moral. They require making moral judgements about important values and the desired state of the present and future world. Hence there are potential benefits in explaining climate action by integrating well-established and emerging knowledge on the role of morality in decision-making. Insights from the social and behavioural sciences can help ground climate change decisions in empirical understandings of how moral values and worldviews manifest in people and societies. Here, we provide an overview of progress in research on morals in the behavioural and social sciences, with an emphasis on empirical research. We highlight the role morals play in motivating and framing climate decisions; outline work describing morals as relational, situated, and dynamic; and review how uneven power dynamics between people and groups with multiple moralities shape climate decision-making. Effective and fair climate decisions require practical understandings of how morality manifests to shape decisions and action. To this end, we aim to better connect insights from social and behavioural scholarship on morality with real-world climate change decision-making.
Abstract.
Adger WN, de Campos RS, Codjoe SNA, Siddiqui T, Hazra S, Das S, Adams H, Gavonel MF, Mortreux C, Abu M, et al (2021). Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas. One Earth, 4(1), 146-157.
Siddiqui T, Szaboova L, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Bhuiyan MRA, Billah T (2021). Policy Opportunities and Constraints for Addressing Urban Precarity of Migrant Populations.
Global Policy,
12(S2), 91-105.
Abstract:
Policy Opportunities and Constraints for Addressing Urban Precarity of Migrant Populations
Addressing sources and drivers of precarity among marginalized migrant populations in urban spaces is central to making cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable for all. Yet dominant policy discourses continue to frame migrants as problematic causes of insecurity and tend to exclude them from policy processes. Deliberative democratic theory suggests that inclusive processes have the potential to create innovative solutions for resilient cities. This study elicits and reports on self-identified sources of precarity and insecurity as experienced by new low-income migrant populations. It combines visual ethnography and deliberative democracy tools in an action research process that facilitated dialogue between migrant populations, urban planners and policy stakeholders. The objective is to elicit policy opportunities and constraints for changing dominant discourses, with a view to enhance marginalized lives and to implement sustainable urban infrastructure in Chattogram, the second largest city of Bangladesh. The results show options for addressing precarity, developed through facilitating migrants and planners to engage with each other’s perspectives. Priorities include focusing on insecure tenure, exposure to environmental hazards, and representation in planning processes. Integrating the perspectives and lived experiences of migrant urban populations into policy processes potentially leads to more effective, sustainable and legitimate solutions.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Butler C, Quinn T (2021). Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience.
Water,
13(3), 349-349.
Abstract:
Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience
Catchment resilience is the capacity of a combined social ecological system, comprised of water, land, ecological resources and communities in a river basin, to deal with sudden shocks and gradual changes, and to adapt and self-organize for progressive change and transform itself for sustainability. This paper proposes that analysis of catchments as social ecological systems can provide key insights into how social and ecological dynamics interact and how some of the negative consequences of unsustainable resource use or environmental degradation can be ameliorated. This requires recognition of the potential for community resilience as a core element of catchment resilience, and moves beyond more structural approaches to emphasize social dynamics. The proposals are based on a review of social ecological systems research, on methods for analyzing community resilience, and a review of social science and action research that suggest ways of generating resilience through community engagement. These methods and approaches maximize insights into the social dynamics of catchments as complex adaptive systems to inform science and practice.
Abstract.
Franco Gavonel M, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Boyd E, Carr ER, Fábos A, Fransen S, Jolivet D, Zickgraf C, Codjoe SNA, et al (2021). The migration-sustainability paradox: transformations in mobile worlds. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 49, 98-109.
Barnett J, Graham S, Quinn T, Adger WN, Butler C (2021). Three ways social identity shapes climate change adaptation.
Environmental Research LettersAbstract:
Three ways social identity shapes climate change adaptation
Abstract
. Adaptation to climate change is inescapably influenced by processes of social identity – how people perceive themselves, others, and their place in the world around them. Yet there is sparse evidence into the specific ways in which identity processes shape adaptation planning and responses. This paper proposes three key ways to understand the relationship between identity formation and adaptation processes: 1) how social identities change in response to perceived climate change risks and threats; 2) how identity change may be an objective of adaptation; and 3) how identity issues can constrain or enable adaptive action. It examines these three areas of focus through a synthesis of evidence on community responses to flooding and subsequent policy responses in Somerset county, UK and the Gippsland East region in Australia, based on indepth longitudinal data collected among those experiencing and enacting adaptation. The results show that adaptation policies are more likely to be effective when they give individuals confidence in the continuity of their in-groups, enhance the self-esteem of these groups, and develop their sense of self-efficacy. These processes of identity formation and evolution are therefore central to individual and collective responses to climate risks.
Abstract.
Cundill G, Singh C, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Vincent K, Tebboth M, Maharjan A (2021). Toward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses. Global Environmental Change, 69, 102315-102315.
Szaboova L, Safra de Campos R, Adger WN, Abu M, Codjoe SNA, Franco Gavonel M, Das S, Siddiqui T, Rocky MH, Hazra S, et al (2021). Urban sustainability and the subjective well‐being of migrants: the role of risks, place attachment, and aspirations. Population, Space and Place
Sumaila UR, Skerritt DJ, Schuhbauer A, Villasante S, Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Sinan H, Burnside D, Abdallah PR, Abe K, Addo KA, et al (2021). WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies.
Science,
374(6567).
Author URL.
Morrison TH, Adger N, Barnett J, Brown K, Possingham H, Hughes T (2020). Advancing Coral Reef Governance into the Anthropocene. One Earth, 2(1), 64-74.
Folke C, Österblom H, Jouffray JB, Lambin EF, Adger WN, Scheffer M, Crona BI, Nyström M, Levin SA, Carpenter SR, et al (2020). An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(4).
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Hettiarachchi M, Huchery C, Lemos MC, Hughes TP (2020). Author Correction: Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems. Nature Sustainability, 3(9), 769-769.
Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Siddiqui T, Szaboova L (2020). Commentary: Inequality, precarity and sustainable ecosystems as elements of urban resilience.
Urban Studies,
57(7), 1588-1595.
Abstract:
Commentary: Inequality, precarity and sustainable ecosystems as elements of urban resilience
The science of resilience suggests that urban systems become resilient when they promote progressive transformative change to social and physical infrastructure. But resilience is challenged by global environmental risks and by social and economic trends that create inequality and exclusion. Here we argue that distortionary inequality and precarity undermine social processes that give access to public infrastructure and ecosystems thereby undermining urban resilience. We illustrate how inequality and precarity undermine resilience with reference to social exclusion and insecurity in growing urban settlements in the Asia-Pacific region. Inequality and exposure to environmental risks represent major challenges for governance that can be best overcome through inclusion and giving voice to marginalised populations.
Abstract.
Mach KJ, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Kraan CM, Maystadt J, O'Loughlin J, et al (2020). Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict.
Earth's Future,
8(7).
Abstract:
Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict
AbstractThe potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate‐conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision‐making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate‐conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.
Abstract.
Lázár AN, Adams H, Adger WN, Nicholls RJ (2020). Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh.
PLoS One,
15(9).
Abstract:
Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh.
Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies-the Household Economy and Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.
Abstract.
Author URL.
Adams H, Adger WN, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Nilsen K, Gurney GG, Streatfield PK, et al (2020). Multi-dimensional well-being associated with economic dependence on ecosystem services in deltaic social-ecological systems of Bangladesh. Regional Environmental Change, 20(2), 42-42.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Hettiarachchi M, Huchery C, Lemos MC, Hughes TP (2020). Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems.
Nature Sustainability,
3(11), 947-955.
Abstract:
Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems
Political dynamics across scales are often overlooked in the design, implementation and evaluation of environmental governance. We provide new evidence to explain how interactions between international organizations and national governments shape environmental governance and outcomes for 238 World Heritage ecosystems, on the basis of a new intervention–response–outcome typology. We analyse interactions between the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and 102 national governments responsible for implementing ecosystem protection under the World Heritage Convention between 1972 and 2019. We combine data on the reporting, deliberation and certification of individual ecosystem-level threats, with data on national governance quality, economic complexity and key stakeholder perspectives. We find that the extent of threatened ecosystems is seriously underestimated and that efforts to formally certify threatened ecosystems are often resisted by national governments. A range of responses to international intervention, including both productive and counterproductive responses, generates material impacts at the ecosystem level. Counterproductive responses occur in nations dependent on limited high-value natural resource industries, irrespective of overall level of economic development. We identify new political approaches to improve environmental governance, including how to overcome the problem of regulatory capture. Our findings inform how we can better anticipate and account for political dynamics in environmental governance.
Abstract.
Barrett S, Dasgupta A, Dasgupta P, Adger WN, Anderies J, van den Bergh J, Bledsoe C, Bongaarts J, Carpenter S, Chapin FS, et al (2020). Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
117, 6300-6307.
Abstract:
Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene
We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household’s decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243–1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people “abandoning the freedom to breed.” That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Crépin A-S, Folke C, Ospina D, Chapin FS, Segerson K, Seto KC, Anderies JM, Barrett S, Bennett EM, et al (2020). Urbanization, Migration, and Adaptation to Climate Change. One Earth, 3(4), 396-399.
Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Maystadt JF, O Loughlin J, et al (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.
Nature,
571, 193-197.
Abstract:
Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
© 2019, the Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Devine-Wright P, Anderies JM, Barr S, Bousquet F, Butler C, Evans L, Marshall N, Quinn T, et al (2019). Empathy, place and identity interactions for sustainability.
Global Environmental Change,
56, 11-17.
Abstract:
Empathy, place and identity interactions for sustainability
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Sustainability science recognises the need to fully incorporate cultural and emotional dimensions of environmental change to understand how societies deal with and shape anticipated transformations, unforeseen risks and increasing uncertainties. The relationship between empathy and sustainability represents a key advance in understanding underpinning human-environment relations. We assert that lack of empathy for nature and for others limits motivations to conserve the environment and enhance sustainability. Critically, the relationship between empathy and sustainability is mediated by place and identity that constrain and shape empathy's role in pro-environmental sustainability behaviour. We review emerging evidence across disciplines and suggest a new model exploring interactions between place, identity and empathy for sustainability. There are emerging innovative methodological approaches to observe, measure and potentially stimulate empathy for sustainability.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Boyd E, Fábos A, Fransen S, Jolivet D, Neville G, Safra De Campos R, Vijge MJ (2019). Migration transforms the conditions for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(11), e440-e442.
Tebboth MGL, Conway D, Adger WN (2019). Mobility endowment and entitlements mediate resilience in rural livelihood systems.
Global Environmental Change,
54, 172-183.
Abstract:
Mobility endowment and entitlements mediate resilience in rural livelihood systems
© 2018 in economically marginal rural areas, choice in livelihood strategy such as decisions to move location mediates levels of individual and household resilience under conditions of environmental change. It is widely recognised that endowments associated with mobility and the entitlement to mobility are unevenly distributed across populations. This paper integrates these insights and conceptualises location choice as a set of mobility endowments and mobility entitlements. Through focussing on endowments and entitlements, the paper explores how choice affects the ability to be mobile and its role in mediating levels of resilience to livelihood shocks associated with changing environmental conditions. The research design involves measuring the impact of different climatic perturbations in rural locations in Anhui Province, China. Mixed methods of rural appraisal, life history interviews, and a household survey generate objective and perceived elements of individual and household responses to risks. These data are augmented by biophysical observations on the nature of the climatic perturbations. The results show that mobility endowments and mobility entitlements are important in determining the impact of mobility on resilience. The life history interview data highlight significant individual agency within the structures that impact on individual choices. Further, individuals and households who possess the ability to decide and to subsequently enact decisions about mobility, are shown to be more resilient compared to other individuals and households that lack such ability. Moreover, households practicing short-term, circular mobility are more resilient than those households that practice long-term mobility. The study confirms that, in these instances, choice and the ability to enact those choices mediates resilience and highlights the implications of location decisions but also the conditions in which those decisions are made.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Cinner JE (2019). Moving climate change beyond the tragedy of the commons. Global Environmental Change, 54, 61-63.
Marshall N, Adger WN, Benham C, Brown K, I Curnock M, Gurney GG, Marshall P, L Pert P, Thiault L (2019). Reef Grief: investigating the relationship between place meanings and place change on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
Sustainability Science,
14(3), 579-587.
Abstract:
Reef Grief: investigating the relationship between place meanings and place change on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
It is well established that ecosystems bring meaning and well-being to individuals, often articulated through attachment to place. Degradation and threats to places and ecosystems have been shown to lead to loss of well-being. Here, we suggest that the interactions between ecosystem loss and declining well-being may involve both emotional responses associated with grief, and with observable impacts on mental health. We test these ideas on so-called ecological grief by examining individual emotional response to well-documented and publicized ecological degradation: coral bleaching and mortality in the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem. The study focuses both on one off events of coral loss and the prospect of continuing decline on the self-reported well-being of residents living within the ecosystem, visitors, and those whose livelihood is dependent on the marine resource: data from face-to-face surveys of 1870 local residents, 1804 tourists, and telephone surveys of 91 fishers and 94 tourism operators. We hypothesise that the extent to which individuals experience ecological grief is dependent on the meanings or intrinsic values (such as aesthetic, scientific, or biodiversity-based values), and is moderated by their place attachment, place identity, lifestyle dependence, place-based pride, and derived well-being. Results show that around half of residents, tourists and tourist operators surveyed, and almost one quarter of fishers, report significant Reef Grief. Reef Grief is closely and positively associated with place meanings within resident and tourist populations. By contrast respondents who rated high aesthetic value of the coral ecosystem report lower levels of Reef Grief. These findings have significant implications for how individuals and populations experience ecosystem decline and loss within places that are meaningful to them. Given inevitable cumulative future impacts on ecosystems from committed climate change impacts, understanding and managing ecological grief will become increasingly important. This study seeks to lay conceptual and theoretical foundations to identify how ecological grief is manifest and related to meaningful places and the social distribution of such grief across society.
Abstract.
Morrison TH, Hughes TP, Adger WN, Brown K, Barnett J, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Huchery C, Chaigneau T, Turner R, et al (2019). Save reefs to rescue all ecosystems. Nature, 573(7774), 333-336.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Phelps J, Evans L, Cohen P, Song AM, Turner R, et al (2019). The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance.
Global Environmental Change,
57Abstract:
The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance
© 2019 the Authors Failure to address unsustainable global change is often attributed to failures in conventional environmental governance. Polycentric environmental governance—the popular alternative—involves many centres of authority interacting coherently for a common governance goal. Yet, longitudinal analysis reveals many polycentric systems are struggling to cope with the growing impacts, pace, and scope of social and environmental change. Analytic shortcomings are also beginning to appear, particularly in the treatment of power. Here we draw together diverse social science perspectives and research into a variety of cases to show how different types of power shape rule setting, issue construction, and policy implementation in polycentric governance. We delineate an important and emerging research agenda for polycentric environmental governance, integrating diverse types of power into analytical and practical models.
Abstract.
Conway D, Nicholls RJ, Brown S, Tebboth MGL, Adger WN, Ahmad B, Biemans H, Crick F, Lutz AF, De Campos RS, et al (2019). The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions.
Nature Climate Change,
9(7), 503-511.
Abstract:
The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions
© 2019, Springer Nature Limited. Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.
Abstract.
Folke C, Österblom H, Jouffray JB, Lambin EF, Adger WN, Scheffer M, Crona BI, Nyström M, Levin SA, Carpenter SR, et al (2019). Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship.
Nature Ecology and Evolution,
3(10), 1396-1403.
Abstract:
Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship
Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown I, Surminski S (2018). Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences,
376(2121), 20180106-20180106.
Abstract:
Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy
© 2018 the Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
Abstract.
Cinner JE, Adger WN, Allison EH, Barnes ML, Brown K, Cohen PJ, Gelcich S, Hicks CC, Hughes TP, Lau J, et al (2018). Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities.
Nature Climate Change,
8, 117-123.
Abstract:
Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities
© 2018 the Author(s) to minimize the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing, governments, development agencies, and civil society organizations have made substantial investments in improving people’s capacity to adapt to change. Yet to date, these investments have tended to focus on a very narrow understanding of adaptive capacity. Here, we propose an approach to build adaptive capacity across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; learning to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not.
Abstract.
Szabo S, Adger WN, Matthews Z (2018). Home is where the money goes: migration-related urban-rural integration in delta regions.
Migration and Development,
7(2), 163-179.
Abstract:
Home is where the money goes: migration-related urban-rural integration in delta regions
The dominant movement of people in the mega-deltas of Asia is from agriculture-dominated rural areas to urban settlements, driven by growing opportunities, but resulting in new human development challenges. In this context, the present study aims to investigate whether remittance income leads to enhanced multiple dimensions of well-being in sending areas in tropical deltas, by focusing on two delta regions with significant out-migration rates, Bangladeshi Ganges Brahmaputra and the Vietnamese Mekong deltas. To this end, the paper offers an original conceptual framework, drawing on existing migration theories and the aspirations and capabilities theoretical framework (Haas et al. 2011). Data from large scale sample household surveys (2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey and 2012 Vietnam Living Standards Survey) are analysed through multilevel regression modelling to examine well-being outcomes in sending areas and links to remittance income. The results show that the temporal extent of internal and international migration is positively associated with remittances in both delta regions. The results also suggest that in both delta regions remittances have a significant positive effect on household well-being in the source rural areas, including overall income, investments in health, food security and access to sanitation. The study concludes that landscapes of urban and rural deltas are increasingly economically integrated which suggests greater resilience even for environmentally-at-risk tropical deltas.
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2018). Mobile worlds: Choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
43, 245-265.
Abstract:
Mobile worlds: Choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change
© 2018 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved. Research on environmental change has often focused on changes in population as a significant driver of unsustainability and environmental degradation. Demographic pessimism and limited engagement with demographic realities underpin many arguments concerning limits to growth, environmental refugees, and environment-related conflicts. Re-engagement between demographic and environmental sciences has led to greater understanding of the interactions between the size, composition, and distribution of populations and exposure to environmental risks and contributions to environmental burdens. We review the results of this renewed and far more nuanced research frontier, focusing in particular on the way demographic trends affect exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation to environmental change. New research has explained how migration systems interact with environmental challenges in individual decisions and in globally aggregate flows. Here we integrate analysis on demographic and environmental risks that often share a root cause in limited social freedoms and opportunities. We argue for a capabilities approach to promoting sustainable solutions for a more mobile world.
Abstract.
Butler C, Walker-Springett K, Adger WN (2018). Narratives of recovery after floods: Mental health, institutions, and intervention.
Social Science and Medicine,
216, 67-73.
Abstract:
Narratives of recovery after floods: Mental health, institutions, and intervention
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd There is increasing evidence that flood events affect the mental health of those experiencing them, with recognition that the period of recovery after the event is particularly important to outcomes. Previous research on flooding has argued that there is a recovery gap that occurs during the long process of recovery at the point when the support provision from public authorities and agencies diminishes, and less well-defined interactions with private actors, such as insurers, begin. This concept highlights the importance of the support and intervention from authorities and other institutions for recovery processes. To date, little research has focused specifically on these relationships and their consequences for people's mental wellbeing through recovery. This study examines the processes of individuals' recovery from flood events, focusing on the role of interaction with agencies in the trajectories of mental health journeys. The analysis applies a narrative approach to in-depth repeated interviews carried out over a fifteen-month period with nine individuals whose homes were inundated by floods in 2013/14 in Somerset, UK. The results suggest strong evidence for institutional support having an important role in how individuals experience their post-flood mental health recovery journeys. The data reveal strategies to maintain psychological and emotional resilience at distinct periods during recovery, and show that both institutional actions and the perceived absence of support in specific circumstances affect the mental health burden of flood events.
Abstract.
Mortreux C, Safra de Campos R, Adger WN, Ghosh T, Das S, Adams H, Hazra S (2018). Political economy of planned relocation: a model of action and inaction in government responses.
Global Environmental Change,
50, 123-132.
Abstract:
Political economy of planned relocation: a model of action and inaction in government responses
© 2018 the Authors Planned relocation has been shown to have significant impacts on the livelihoods and wellbeing of people and communities, whether the resettlement process is inclusive or coercive. For states, planned relocation represents risks to those communities but also to government investments and political legitimacy. Evaluations of relocations commonly focus on the risks and benefits of government interventions while overlooking the consequences of not intervening. Here we develop a conceptual framework to examine the factors that influence government decision-making about whether or not to undertake planned relocation of populations in the context of environmental change. The study examines planned relocation decisions and non-decisions by government agencies in West Bengal in India for communities seeking relocation due to coastal flooding. It focuses on three localities facing river erosion losing significant land areas in small islands and communities where populations recognize the need for public intervention, but where there has been a diversity of responses from the state authorities. Data are derived from interviews with key respondents involved in planning and implementing relocation and with residents affected by those government decisions (n = 26). These data show that government action is explained by a combination of risk aversion within political systems to avoid perceived negative consequences, and a lack of government accountability. The empirical cases demonstrate the uneven application of action and inaction and the consequent uneven distribution of potential outcomes on populations. The study suggests that while there may be a growing demand for planned relocation in places affected by environmental change, its implementation is likely to be uneven, with profound socioeconomic implications for those living in such localities.
Abstract.
Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG, Conway D, Joshi M, Frame D (2018). Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences,
376(2121).
Abstract:
Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.
Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.
Abstract.
Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG (2017). Climate risks across borders and scales. Nature Climate Change, 7(9), 621-623.
Marshall N, Adger N, Attwood S, Brown K, Crissman C, Cvitanovic C, De Young C, Gooch M, James C, Jessen S, et al (2017). Empirically derived guidance for social scientists to influence environmental policy.
PLoS One,
12(3), e0171950-e0171950.
Abstract:
Empirically derived guidance for social scientists to influence environmental policy.
Failure to stem trends of ecological disruption and associated loss of ecosystem services worldwide is partly due to the inadequate integration of the human dimension into environmental decision-making. Decision-makers need knowledge of the human dimension of resource systems and of the social consequences of decision-making if environmental management is to be effective and adaptive. Social scientists have a central role to play, but little guidance exists to help them influence decision-making processes. We distil 348 years of cumulative experience shared by 31 environmental experts across three continents into advice for social scientists seeking to increase their influence in the environmental policy arena. Results focus on the importance of process, engagement, empathy and acumen and reveal the importance of understanding and actively participating in policy processes through co-producing knowledge and building trust. The insights gained during this research might empower a science-driven cultural change in science-policy relations for the routine integration of the human dimension in environmental decision making; ultimately for an improved outlook for earth's ecosystems and the billions of people that depend on them.
Abstract.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Hughes TP (2017). Mitigation and adaptation in polycentric systems: sources of power in the pursuit of collective goals. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8, e479-e479.
Adger WN, Butler C, Walker-Springett K (2017). Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change.
Environmental Politics,
26, 371-390.
Abstract:
Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change
Moral foundations theory argues that moral reasoning is widely observed and fundamental to the legitimacy of relevant governance and policy interventions. A new analytical framework to examine and test how moral reasoning underpins and legitimizes governance and practice on adaptation to climate change risks is proposed. It develops a typology of eight categories of vulnerability-based and system-based moral reasoning that pertain to the dilemmas around adaptation and examines the prevalence of these moral categories in public discourse about specific adaptation issues. The framework is tested using data on climate change impact, adaptation, and societal responsibility, drawn from 14 focus groups comprising 148 participants across the UK. Participants consistently use moral reasoning to explain their views on climate adaptation; these include both vulnerability-based and system-based framings. These findings explain public responses to adaptation options and governance, and have implications for the direction of adaptation policy, including understanding which types of reasoning support politically legitimate interventions.
Abstract.
Gurney GG, Blythe J, Adams H, Adger WN, Curnock M, Faulkner L, James T, Marshall NA (2017). Redefining community based on place attachment in a connected world.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
114(38), 10077-10082.
Abstract:
Redefining community based on place attachment in a connected world
Significance
. Effective environmental policy requires public participation in management, typically achieved through engaging community defined by residential location or resource use. However, current social and environmental change, particularly increasing connectedness, demands new approaches to community. We draw on place attachment theory to redefine community in the context of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Using a large dataset on place attachment, our analysis of local, national, and international stakeholders identified four communities differing in their attachment to the reef and spanning location and use communities. Our results suggest that place attachment can bridge geographic and social boundaries, and communities of attachment could thus be leveraged to foster transnational stewardship, which is crucial to addressing modern sustainability challenges in our globalized world.
Abstract.
Morris GP, Reis S, Beck SA, Fleming LE, Adger WN, Benton TG, Depledge MH (2017). Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.
Environmental Health,
16(Suppl 1), 116-116.
Abstract:
Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.
The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.
Abstract.
Waters J, Adger WN (2017). Spatial, network and temporal dimensions of the determinants of adaptive capacity in poor urban areas.
Global Environmental Change,
46, 42-49.
Abstract:
Spatial, network and temporal dimensions of the determinants of adaptive capacity in poor urban areas
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Slums and informal settlements are home to rapidly growing populations in urban areas globally and face a range of significant shocks and stresses. The sustainability of these places is critically intertwined with the resilience of their populations. The nature of the capacity for populations to adapt to shocks, as an element of resilience, is related to the evolving knowledge and networks of those populations and is suggested here to have significant spatial and temporal variation. We analyse the key determinants of adaptive capacity and hypothesise that they are related to spatial dimensions of urban form, temporal dimensions of migration, place attachment, and to social differentiation. We investigate these dynamics of adaptive capacity across a transect of urbanisation from inner city to periphery in Kampala, Uganda using diverse methods including a sample survey of residents (n = 720) and ego-network analysis. Results show that the key determinants of individual-level adaptive capacity are attachment to place, social networks, and duration of residence. There are significant differences in adaptive capacity between slum areas, as well as strong social group and temporal dimensions. These findings suggest the importance of measuring adaptive capacities at appropriate spatial and temporal scales in order to identify specific interventions for slums that build the resilience of their populations.
Abstract.
Watts N, Adger WN, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Bai Y, Byass P, Campbell-Lendrum D, Colbourn T, Cox P, Davies M, Depledge M, et al (2017). The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change. The Lancet, 389(10074), 1151-1164.
Walker-Springett K, Butler C, Adger WN (2017). Wellbeing in the aftermath of floods.
Health and Place,
43, 66-74.
Abstract:
Wellbeing in the aftermath of floods
The interactions between flood events, their aftermath, and recovery leading to health and wellbeing outcomes for individuals are complex, and the pathways and mechanisms through which wellbeing is affected are often hidden and remain under-researched. This study analyses the diverse processes that explain changes in wellbeing for those experiencing flooding. It identifies key pathways to wellbeing outcomes that concern perceptions of lack of agency, dislocation from home, and disrupted futures inducing negative impacts, with offsetting positive effects through community networks and interactions. The mixed method study is based on data from repeated qualitative semi-structured interviews (n=60) and a structured survey (n=1000) with individuals that experienced flooding directly during winter 2013/14 in two UK regions. The results show for the first time the diversity and intersection of pathways to wellbeing outcomes in the aftermath of floods. The findings suggest that enhanced public health planning and interventions could focus on the precise practices and mechanisms that intersect to produce anxiety, stress, and their amelioration at individual and community levels.
Abstract.
Barnett J, Tschakert P, Head L, Adger WN (2016). A science of loss. Nature Climate Change, 6(11), 976-978.
Adams H, Adger WN, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Lázár AN, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Streatfield PK (2016). Data Descriptor: Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh.
Scientific Data,
3Abstract:
Data Descriptor: Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh
Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women's empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries.
Abstract.
Adger N (2016). Don't gag science. New Scientist, 229(3065), 26-27.
Cinnamon J, Jones SK, Adger WN (2016). Evidence and future potential of mobile phone data for disease disaster management.
Geoforum,
75, 253-264.
Abstract:
Evidence and future potential of mobile phone data for disease disaster management
Global health threats such as the recent Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks require rapid and robust responses to prevent, reduce and recover from disease dispersion. As part of broader big data and digital humanitarianism discourses, there is an emerging interest in data produced through mobile phone communications for enhancing the data environment in such circumstances. This paper assembles user perspectives and critically examines existing evidence and future potential of mobile phone data derived from call detail records (CDRs) and two-way short message service (SMS) platforms, for managing and responding to humanitarian disasters caused by communicable disease outbreaks. We undertake a scoping review of relevant literature and in-depth interviews with key informants to ascertain the: (i) information that can be gathered from CDRs or SMS data; (ii) phase(s) in the disease disaster management cycle when mobile data may be useful; (iii) value added over conventional approaches to data collection and transfer; (iv) barriers and enablers to use of mobile data in disaster contexts; and (v) the social and ethical challenges. Based on this evidence we develop a typology of mobile phone data sources, types, and end-uses, and a decision-tree for mobile data use, designed to enable effective use of mobile data for disease disaster management. We show that mobile data holds great potential for improving the quality, quantity and timing of selected information required for disaster management, but that testing and evaluation of the benefits, constraints and limitations of mobile data use in a wider range of mobile-user and disaster contexts is needed to fully understand its utility, validity, and limitations.
Abstract.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Lázár AN, Allan A, Adger WN, Adams H, Wolf J, Rahman M, Salehin M (2016). Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 183, 370-381.
Adger WN (2016). Place, well-being, and fairness shape priorities for adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 38, A1-A3.
Adger WN, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C (2016). Sharing the Pain: Perceptions of Fairness Affect Private and Public Response to Hazards.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers,
106(5), 1079-1096.
Abstract:
Sharing the Pain: Perceptions of Fairness Affect Private and Public Response to Hazards
© 2016 W. N. Adger, T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, and C. Murphy. Published with license by Taylor & Francis © W. N. Adger, T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, and C. Murphy.Structural causes of vulnerability to hazards are well established in geographical research. But what facilitates individual adaptive behavior? How does the performance of government intervention affect such behavior? Drawing on political economy, environmental psychology, and climate justice perspectives, we explore how perceived fairness of responses to weather-related extreme events affects the public and private distribution of responsibility and action. We focus on flood risk and examine how perceptions of fairness of response by residents in flood-affected areas, along with their prior experience of flooding and perceptions of scope of government responsibility and capacity, affect willingness to take individual adaptive action. We use data from surveys of 356 households affected by a flood event in November 2009 in Cumbria, UK, and Galway, Ireland, to compare perceptions of fairness of responses and private intentions across two political jurisdictions. We find that aspects of fairness are related to willingness to take adaptive action but vary with context, experience, and knowledge of flooding. In Cumbria, where there is greater experience of flooding, willingness to act correlates with procedural justice, risk knowledge, and capacity. Capacity for flood management in Galway is firmly associated with state agencies, whereas in Cumbria it is perceived to result from responsibilities of public and private action. These findings highlight the central role of government action and its perceived fairness in structuring private responses to environmental risks and point to the crucial role of climate justice perspectives in navigating adaptation.
Abstract.
Nyborg K, Anderies JM, Dannenberg A, Lindahl T, Schill C, Schlüter M, Adger WN, Arrow KJ, Barrett S, Carpenter S, et al (2016). Social norms as solutions.
Science,
354(6308), 42-43.
Abstract:
Social norms as solutions
Policies may influence large-scale behavioral tipping
Abstract.
Szabo S, Hossain MS, Adger WN, Matthews Z, Ahmed S, Lázár AN, Ahmad S (2016). Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh.
Sustainability Science,
11(3), 411-421.
Abstract:
Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh
As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.
Abstract.
Evans LS, Hicks CC, Adger WN, Barnett J, Perry AL, Fidelman P, Tobin R (2016). Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.
PloS one,
11(3), e0150575-e0150575.
Abstract:
Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.
Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.
Abstract.
Huitema D, Adger WN, Berkhout F, Massey E, Mazmanian D, Munaretto S, Plummer R, Termeer CCJAM (2016). The governance of adaptation: Choices, reasons, and effects. Introduction to the special feature.
Ecology and Society,
21(3).
Abstract:
The governance of adaptation: Choices, reasons, and effects. Introduction to the special feature
© 2016 by the author(s).The governance of climate adaptation involves the collective efforts of multiple societal actors to address problems, or to reap the benefits, associated with impacts of climate change. Governing involves the creation of institutions, rules and organizations, and the selection of normative principles to guide problem solution and institution building. We argue that actors involved in governing climate change adaptation, as climate change governance regimes evolve, inevitably must engage in making choices, for instance on problem definitions, jurisdictional levels, on modes of governance and policy instruments, and on the timing of interventions. Yet little is known about how and why these choices are made in practice, and how such choices affect the outcomes of our efforts to govern adaptation. In this introduction we review the current state of evidence and the specific contribution of the articles published in this Special Feature, which are aimed at bringing greater clarity in these matters, and thereby informing both governance theory and practice. Collectively, the contributing papers suggest that the way issues are defined has important consequences for the support for governance interventions, and their effectiveness. The articles suggest that currently the emphasis in adaptation governance is on the local and regional levels, while underscoring the benefits of interventions and governance at higher jurisdictional levels in terms of visioning and scaling-up effective approaches. The articles suggest that there is a central role of government agencies in leading governance interventions to address spillover effects, to provide public goods, and to promote the long-term perspectives for planning. They highlight the issue of justice in the governance of adaptation showing how governance measures have wide distributional consequences, including the potential to amplify existing inequalities, access to resources, or generating new injustices through distribution of risks. For several of these findings, future research directions are suggested.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas DSG (2015). Focus on environmental risks and migration: Causes and consequences.
Environmental Research Letters,
10(6).
Abstract:
Focus on environmental risks and migration: Causes and consequences
© 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd. Environmental change poses risks to societies, including disrupting social and economic systems such as migration. At the same time, migration is an effective adaptation to environmental and other risks. We review novel science on interactions between migration, environmental risks and climate change. We highlight emergent findings, including how dominant flows of rural to urban migration mean that populations are exposed to new risks within destination areas and the requirement for urban sustainability. We highlight the issue of lack of mobility as a major issue limiting the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy and leading to potentially trapped populations. The paper presents scenarios of future migration that show both displacement and trapped populations over the incoming decades. Papers in the special issue bring new insights from demography, human geography, political science and environmental science to this emerging field.
Abstract.
Watts N, Neil Adger W, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, et al (2015). Health and climate change - Political strategies for the protection of public health. Umweltmedizin in Forschung und Praxis, 20(4), 167-169.
Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, et al (2015). Health and climate change: Policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet, 386(10006), 1861-1914.
Walker BJA, Neil Adger W, Russel D (2015). Institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in decentralised governance structures: Transport planning in England.
Urban Studies,
52(12), 2250-2266.
Abstract:
Institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in decentralised governance structures: Transport planning in England
Climate change poses governance challenges at diverse scales and across the dimensions of risk and responsibility. Local governments are central to the delivery of action on both decarbonisation and adapting to the risks of climate change. Yet there are likely to be significant differences across local governments in terms of their capacity to act on climate change. This research documents and explains differences in the capacity to act within response spaces to risks to transport infrastructure and systems. We examine 80 Transport Plans across local governments in England, specifically their efforts to incorporate climate change adaptation. Data are generated from content analysis of the 80 documents and key informant interviews in a sample of 15% of authorities. The results show significant disparities across authorities. We explain differential outcomes as dependent on internal coordination, local prioritisation processes and political opposition. The results highlight that there are significant governance barriers associated with differential response capacity in the face of climate change risks.
Abstract.
Gemenne F, Barnett J, Adger WN, Dabelko GD (2014). Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda.
Climatic Change,
123(1), 1-9.
Abstract:
Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda
There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Abstract.
Hodbod J, Adger WN (2014). Integrating social-ecological dynamics and resilience into energy systems research.
Energy Research and Social Science,
1, 226-231.
Abstract:
Integrating social-ecological dynamics and resilience into energy systems research
The ecological impact of energy production and consumption is often relegated in analytical accounts of the evolution of energy systems, where production and consumption patterns are analysed as the interaction of social, economic and technological factors. Ecological and social-ecological dynamics are, we argue, critical in the context of imperatives for access to modern energy services that are inadequate for significant sections of the world's population. The ecological impacts of energy use are often analysed as a set of externalities, many of which are uncertain or unquantifiable, particularly if they stem from earth system change such as anthropogenic climate change. Here we outline the benefits from analysing energy systems as social-ecological systems. We review the extensive literature from ecology and resilience theories, and compare the analytical domains, major findings and emphasis of social-ecological systems with socio-technical transition research. We illustrate these differences with the example of the multi-scale impacts of biofuel expansion. We show that social-ecological systems research combines analysis of interactions with ecological systems and power relations between actors in energy systems, and has the potential to do so across production, distribution and consumption domains whilst illustrating the dynamics of such energy systems, identifying potential trade-offs and regime shifts. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Milman A, Bunclark L, Conway D, Adger WN (2013). Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins.
Climatic Change,
121(4), 755-770.
Abstract:
Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins
Responses to climate change in transboundary river basins are believed to depend on national and sub-national capacities as well as the ability of co-riparian nations to communicate, coordinate, and cooperate across their international boundaries. We develop the first framework for assessing transboundary adaptive capacity. The framework considers six dimensions of transboundary river basins that influence planning and implementation of adaptation measures and represents those dimensions using twelve measurable indicators. These indicators are used to assess transboundary adaptive capacity of 42 basins in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Sahel. We then conduct a cluster analysis of those basins to delineate a typology that includes six categories of basins: High Capacity, Mediated Cooperation, Good Neighbour, Dependent Instability, Self-Sufficient, and Low Capacity. We find large variation in adaptive capacity across the study area; basins in Western Europe generally have higher capacities to address the potential hazards of climate change. Our basin typology points to how climate change adaptation policy interventions would be best targeted across the different categories of basins. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C, Sweeney J (2013). Changing social contracts in climate change adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3, 330-333.
Adger N, Barnett J, Dabelko G (2013). Climate and war: a call for more research. Nature, 498(7453).
Adger WN, Barnett J, Brown K, O'Brien K, Marshall N (2013). Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3(2), 112-117.
Jordan A, Rayner T, Schroeder H, Adger N, Anderson K, Bows A, Quéré CL, Joshi M, Mander S, Vaughan N, et al (2013). Going beyond two degrees? the risks and opportunities of alternative options.
Climate Policy,
13(6), 751-769.
Abstract:
Going beyond two degrees? the risks and opportunities of alternative options
Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action. © 2013 the Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.
Abstract.
Goulden MC, Adger WN, Allison EH, Conway D (2013). Limits to Resilience from Livelihood Diversification and Social Capital in Lake Social-Ecological Systems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(4), 906-924.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell, N. W. (2013). Migration and extreme environmental events: new agendas for global change research. Environmental Science and Policy, 27 (supplement), s1-s3.
Black R, Arnell NW, Adger WN, Thomas D, Geddes A (2013). Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environmental Science and Policy, 27 (supplement), s32-s43.
Adams H, Adger WN (2013). The contribution of ecosystem services to place utility as a determinant of migration decision-making. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1).
Adger WN (2012). Climate change and migration: security and borders in a warming world: Book review. International Affairs, 88(3), 642-643.
Geddes A, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Thomas DSG (2012). Migration, environmental change, and the 'challenges of governance'. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30(6), 951-967.
Geddes A, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Thomas DSG (2012). The implications for governance of migration linked to environmental change: Key findings and new research directions. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30(6), 1078-1082.
Marshall NA, Park SE, Adger WN, Brown K, Howden SM (2012). Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity.
Environmental Research Letters,
7(3).
Abstract:
Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity
Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for those who depend on them. Resource-dependent industries and communities need the capacity to adapt to a range of climate risks if they are to remain viable. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure will be required. Transformations represent a switch to a distinct new system where a different suite of factors become important in the design and implementation of response strategies. There is a critical gap in knowledge on understanding transformational capacity and its influences. On the basis of current knowledge on adaptive capacity we propose four foundations for measuring transformational capacity: (1)how risks and uncertainty are managed, (2)the extent of skills in planning, learning and reorganizing, (3)the level of financial and psychological flexibility to undertake change and (4)the willingness to undertake change. We test the influence of place attachment and occupational identity on transformational capacity using the Australian peanut industry, which is presently assessing significant structural change in response to predicted climatic changes. Survey data from 88% of peanut farmers in Queensland show a strong negative correlation between transformational capacity and both place attachment and occupational attachment, suggesting that whilst these factors may be important positive influences on the capacity to adapt to incremental change, they act as barriers to transformational change. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Abstract.
Quinn T, Adger WN (2011). Climate change when you are getting on in life. Environment and Planning A, 43(10), 2257-2260.
Steneck RS, Hughes TP, Cinner JE, Adger WN, Arnold SN, Berkes F, Boudreau SA, Brown K, Folke C, Gunderson L, et al (2011). Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery.
Conservation Biology,
25(5), 904-912.
Abstract:
Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery
Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation-corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long-term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social-ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.
Abstract.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). Migration and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21(SUPPL. 1).
Adger WN, Brown K, Nelson DR, Berkes F, Eakin H, Folke C, Galvin K, Gunderson L, Goulden M, O'Brien K, et al (2011). Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,
2(5), 757-766.
Abstract:
Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change
This article examines whether some response strategies to climate variability and change have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of social-ecological systems. We define the parameters of a resilience approach, suggesting that resilience is characterized by the ability to absorb perturbations without changing overall system function, the ability to adapt within the resources of the system itself, and the ability to learn, innovate, and change. We evaluate nine current regional climate change policy responses and examine governance, sensitivity to feedbacks, and problem framing to evaluate impacts on characteristics of a resilient system. We find that some responses, such as the increase in harvest rates to deal with pine beetle infestations in Canada and expansion of biofuels globally, have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of resource systems. Other responses, such as decentralized water planning in Brazil and tropical storm disaster management in Caribbean islands, have the potential to increase long-term resilience. We argue that there are multiple sources of resilience in most systems and hence policy should identify such sources and strengthen capacities to adapt and learn. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Abstract.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration.
Global Environmental Change,
21(SUPPL. 1).
Abstract:
The effect of environmental change on human migration
The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Barnett J, Chapin III FS, Ellemor H (2011). This Must be the Place: Underrepresentation of Identity and Meaning in Climate Change Decision-Making.
Global Environmental Politics,
11(2), 1-25.
Author URL.
Wreford A, Adger WN (2010). Adaptation in agriculture: Historic effects of heat waves and droughts on UK agriculture. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 8(4), 278-289.
Adger WN (2010). Climate change, human well-being and insecurity.
New Political Economy,
15(2), 275-292.
Abstract:
Climate change, human well-being and insecurity
Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Abstract.
Osbahr H, Twyman C, Adger WN, Thomas DSG (2010). Evaluating Successful Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Variability and change in Southern Africa. Ecology and Society, 15(2).
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I (2010). Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK.
Environment and Planning A,
42(11), 2721-2734.
Abstract:
Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK
Heat waves and cold spells pose ongoing seasonal risks to the health and well-being of vulnerable individuals. Current attempts to address these risks in the UK are implemented through fuel-poverty strategies and heat-wave planning. This paper examines evidence from the UK on whether heat waves and cold spells are addressed differently by public policy in the UK given that risks are mediated by similar perceptions that shape behavioural responses by vulnerable individuals. It is based on a review of UK policies and on a qualitative interview study of risk perceptions of elderly people as a primary identified vulnerable group to these weather extremes. The study involved in-depth repeat interviews with fifteen elderly respondents in summer 2007 and winter 2008 in Norwich (UK). Results suggest that neither heat risks nor cold risks are perceived as personal risks and therefore planned preventive measures by individuals are largely elusive. Cold risk policy reduces vulnerability; policy related to heat relies on early warning and public information programmes and does not reduce underlying vulnerability. Both types of policies largely ignore public perceptions of risks and could benefit from a more cohesive approach, supporting similar measures to reduce seasonal vulnerability. © 2010 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.
Abstract.
Tompkins EL, Adger WN, Boyd E, Nicholson-Cole S, Weatherhead K, Arnell N (2010). Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society.
Global Environmental Change,
20(4), 627-635.
Abstract:
Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society
This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Conway D (2010). Progress in global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 547-549.
Miller F, Osbahr H, Boyd E, Thomalla F, Bharwani S, Ziervogel G, Walker B, Birkmann J, van der Leeuw S, Rockstroem J, et al (2010). Resilience and Vulnerability: Complementary or Conflicting Concepts?.
ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY,
15(3).
Author URL.
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, Abrahamson V, Raine R (2010). Social capital, individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: an empirical study of two UK cities.
Global Environmental Change,
20(1), 44-52.
Abstract:
Social capital, individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: an empirical study of two UK cities
It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals' responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Jansson C, Wallander M-A, Johansson S, Johnsen R, Hveem K (2010). Stressful psychosocial factors and symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease: a population-based study in Norway.
SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY,
45(1), 21-29.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Nelson DR, Naess LO, Wolf J, Wreford A (2009). Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?.
Climatic Change,
93(3-4), 335-354.
Abstract:
Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?
While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Barnett J (2009). Four reasons for concern about adaptation to climate change. Environment and Planning A, 41(12), 2800-2805.
Adger WN, Eakin H, Winkels A (2009). Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
7(3), 150-157.
Abstract:
Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change
The vulnerability of distant peoples and places to global change in environment and society is nested and teleconnected. Here, we argue that such vulnerabilities are linked through environmental change process feedbacks, economic market linkages, and flows of resources, people, and information. We illustrate these linkages through the examples of the global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the interdependent vulnerabilities and adaptations of coffee farmers in Vietnam and Mexico. These cases demonstrate that the vulnerability of specific individuals and communities is not geographically bounded but, rather, is connected at different scales, so that the drivers of their exposure and sensitivity are inseparable from large-scale processes of sociocultural change and market integration. Aggregate outcomes of government policies, trends in global commodity markets, and even decisions by individuals to improve livelihood security can have negative repercussions, not only locally, through transformations of ecological systems and social relations, but also at larger scales. © the Ecological Society of America.
Abstract.
Abrahamson V, Wolf J, Lorenzoni I, Fenn B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P, Adger WN, Raine R (2009). Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: Interview-based study of older people in London and Norwich, UK.
Journal of Public Health,
31(1), 119-126.
Abstract:
Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: Interview-based study of older people in London and Norwich, UK
BackgroundMost projections of climate change suggest an increased frequency of heatwaves in England over coming decades; older people are at particular risk. This could result in substantial mortality and morbidity.ObjectiveTo determine elderly people's knowledge and perceptions of heat-related risks to health, and of protective behaviours.MethodsSemi-structured interviews: 73 men and women, 72-94 years, living in their own homes in London and Norwich, UK.ResultsFew respondents considered themselves either old or at risk from the effects of heat, even though many had some form of relevant chronic illness; they did recognize that some medical conditions might increase risks in others. Most reported that they had taken appropriate steps to reduce the effects of heat. Some respondents considered it appropriate for the government to take responsibility for protecting vulnerable people, but many thought state intervention was unnecessary, intrusive and unlikely to be effective. Respondents were more positive about the value of appropriately disseminated advice and solutions by communities themselves.ConclusionThe Heatwave Plan should consider giving greater emphasis to a population-based information strategy, using innovative information dissemination methods to increase awareness of vulnerability to heat among the elderly and to ensure clarity about behaviour modification measures.
Abstract.
Doria MDF, Boyd E, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2009). Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change.
Environmental Science and Policy,
12(7), 810-819.
Abstract:
Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change
This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K (2009). Vulnerability and Resilience to Environmental Change: Ecological and Social Perspectives. , 109-122.
Allison EH, Perry AL, Badjeck M-C, Adger WN, Brown K, Conway D, Halls AS, Pilling GM, Reynolds JD, Andrew NL, et al (2009). Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish and Fisheries, 10(2), 173-196.
Wreford A, Adger WN (2008). Climate change and the economics of adaptation. Economic Review, 26(1), 2-5.
Osbahr H, Twyman C, Adger WN, Thomas DSG (2008). Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique. Geoforum, 39(6), 1951-1964.
Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007). Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
32, 395-419.
Abstract:
Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework
Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. The dominant research tradition on adaptation to environmental change primarily takes an actorcentered view, focusing on the agency of social actors to respond to specific environmental stimuli and emphasizing the reduction of vulnerabilities. The resilience approach is systems orientated, takes a more dynamic view, and sees adaptive capacity as a core feature of resilient social-ecological systems. The two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation. We argue that resilience provides a useful framework to analyze adaptation processes and to identify appropriate policy responses. We distinguish between incremental adjustments and transformative action and demonstrate that the sources of resilience for taking adaptive action are common across scales. These are the inherent system characteristics that absorb perturbations without losing function, networks and social capital that allow autonomous action, and resources that promote institutional learning. Copyright ©2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict.
Political Geography,
26(6), 639-655.
Abstract:
Climate change, human security and violent conflict
Climate change is increasingly been called a 'security' problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research - on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Corbera E, Brown K, Adger WN (2007). The equity and legitimacy of markets for ecosystem services. Development and Change, 38(4), 587-613.
Paavola J, Adger WN (2006). Fair adaptation to climate change.
Ecological Economics,
56(4), 594-609.
Abstract:
Fair adaptation to climate change
This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Pyhälä A, Brown K, Adger WN (2006). Implications of livelihood dependence on non-timber products in Peruvian Amazonia. Ecosystems, 9(8), 1328-1341.
Zhang HX, Kelly PM, Locke C, Winkels A, Adger WN (2006). Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam.
Geoforum,
37(6), 1066-1081.
Abstract:
Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam
Migration is frequently portrayed as a negative force in its relationship with economic and social development. This negative perception is exhibited through describing population movements as either 'forced' (e.g. political and environmental refugees) or 'voluntary' movements (e.g. economic and uninhibited relocation). This paper examines the limitations of this conceptual dualism. It points out that the dualistic approach, widely used in the context of developing countries, simplifies a highly complex phenomenon by ignoring its essential heterogeneity and spatial and temporal dynamics. As such, it is limited in explaining and understanding the globally diversified, historically and politically contextualised situations. Focusing on the migratory experiences of contemporary Vietnam, the study identifies major patterns and trends of population mobility in the country in the past fifty years. It shows that despite the state's continued attempts to reshape the spatial distribution of population over recent historical periods, the policy outcomes with respect to population mobility have been swayed as much by individuals and their families in pursuit of their own aspirations and livelihoods as by state plans. The Vietnam case has provided evidence of a much more complicated relationship between migration and livelihoods than the conceptual dichotomy assumes, and the opportunity for a richer set of policy options. We argue that the evidence from Vietnam, and elsewhere, warrants an integrated approach to studying migration, combining analysis at the macro- and micro-levels with the nexus lying at the critical decision-making point of the individual or household. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Cash DW, Adger WN, Berkes F, Garden P, Lebel L, Olsson P, Pritchard L, Young O (2006). Scale and cross-scale dynamics: Governance and information in a multilevel world. Ecology and Society, 11(2).
Adger WN (2006). Vulnerability.
Global Environmental Change,
16(3), 268-281.
Abstract:
Vulnerability
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005). Adapting to climate change: perspectives across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 75-76.
Adger WN, Barnett J (2005). Compensation for climate change must meet needs [3]. Nature, 436(7049).
Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2005). Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy. Environmental Science and Policy, 8(6), 562-571.
Arnell NW, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2005). Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1419-1431.
Paavola J, Adger WN (2005). Institutional ecological economics.
Ecological Economics,
53(3), 353-368.
Abstract:
Institutional ecological economics
New institutional economics and its forerunners have, we argue made important contributions to the evolving agenda of ecological economics. The conceptualisation of environmental problems as instances of interdependence and the acknowledgement of positive transaction costs are key insights into the nature of environmental problems. We also discuss how plurality of behavioural motivations and limited cognitive capacity have important implications for environmental decision making and its analysis. We show how evolutionary and collective action theories offer complementary takes on the choice and change of environmental governance institutions and how the concept of social capital can enrich analyses of environmental governance. We conclude that an emerging institutional ecological economics has the greatest relative advantage in analysing the design, implementation and effectiveness of environmental governance solutions. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Hulme M (2005). Redefining global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 15(1), 1-4.
Adger WN, Hughes TP, Folke C, Carpenter SR, Rockström J (2005). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters.
Science,
309(5737), 1036-1039.
Abstract:
Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters.
Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.
Abstract.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005). Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.
Global Environmental Change,
15(2), 77-86.
Abstract:
Successful adaptation to climate change across scales
Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2005). The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation.
Global Environmental Change,
15(2), 151-163.
Abstract:
The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity - one element of vulnerability - is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Tompkins EL (2005). The political economy of cross-scale networks in resource co-management. Ecology and Society, 10(2).
Adger WN, Vincent K (2005). Uncertainty in adaptive capacity.
Comptes Rendus - Geoscience,
337(4), 399-410.
Abstract:
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. © 2004 Académia des Sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Dessai S, Adger WN, Hulme M, Turnpenny J, Köhler J, Warren R (2004). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change: an editorial essay.
Climatic Change,
64(1-2), 11-25.
Abstract:
Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change: an editorial essay
Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term 'external' and 'internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.
Abstract.
Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2004). Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change?. Ecology and Society, 9(2).
Sidle RC, Taylor D, Lu XX, Adger WN, Lowe DJ, de Lange WP, Newnham RM, Dodson JR (2004). Interactions of natural hazards and society in Austral-Asia: evidence in past and recent records. Quaternary International, 118-19, 181-203.
Adger WN (2004). The right to keep cold. Environment and Planning A, 36(10), 1711-1715.
Adger WN (2004). The right to keep cold. Environment and Planning A, 36(10), 1711-1715.
Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K, Conway D, Hulme M (2003). Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies, 3(3), 179-195.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2003). Climate dangers and atoll countries.
Climatic Change,
61(3), 321-337.
Abstract:
Climate dangers and atoll countries
Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brooks N (2003). Does global environmental change cause vulnerability to disaster?. Natural Disasters and Development in a Globalizing World, 19-42.
Dietz S, Adger WN (2003). Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort.
Journal of Environmental Management,
68(1), 23-35.
Abstract:
Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Fairbrass J, Jordan A, Paavola J, Rosendo S, Seyfang G (2003). Governance for sustainability: Towards a 'thick' analysis of environmental decisionmaking. Environment and Planning A, 35(6), 1095-1110.
Adger WN (2003). Governing natural resources: Institutional adaptation and resilience. Negotiating Environmental Change: New Perspectives from Social Science, 193-208.
Adger WN (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change.
Economic Geography,
79(4), 387-404.
Abstract:
Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change
Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. © 2003 Clark University.
Abstract.
Adger WN (2002). Inequality, environment, and planning. Environment and Planning A, 34(10), 1716-1719.
Tompkins E, Adger WN, Brown K (2002). Institutional networks for inclusive coastal management in Trinidad and Tobago. Environment and Planning A, 34(6), 1095-1111.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Winkels A, Huy LQ, Locke C (2002). Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories, and social resilience.
Ambio,
31(4), 358-366.
Abstract:
Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories, and social resilience.
We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience.
Abstract.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Benjaminsen TA, Brown K, Svarstad H (2001). Advancing a political ecology of global environmental discourses. Development and Change, 32(4), 681-715.
Adger WN (2001). Scales of governance and environmental justice for adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Journal of International Development, 13(7), 921-931.
Brown K, Adger WN, Tompkins E, Bacon P, Shim D, Young K (2001). Trade-off analysis for marine protected area management. Ecological Economics, 37(3), 417-434.
Locke C, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2000). Changing places: Migration's social and environmental consequences. Environment, 42(7), 24-35.
Adger WN (2000). Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers,
90(4), 738-758.
Abstract:
Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam
This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. Institutions encompass both socialized ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organizations that influence resource allocation. The adaptation of institutions that mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed by examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decisionmaking and nondecisionmaking, as well as by examining changing perceptions of vulnerability. Institutional adaptation is evaluated in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam, a country presently undergoing rapid economic and political transition. The case study highlights local-level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with flooding and typhoon impacts in the coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork involving qualitative household surveys and interviewing to elicit present and recent coping and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as a macroeconomic success story, this study argues that the transition has had negative impacts on social vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for risk management by state institutions in exacerbated by inertia in some aspects of the decentralized state planning system, while the parallel spontaneous reemergence of civil institutions forms a counterbalancing institutional adaptation.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Luttrell C (2000). Property rights and the utilisation of wetlands.
Ecological Economics,
35(1), 75-89.
Abstract:
Property rights and the utilisation of wetlands
This paper argues that successful conservation of wetlands is fundamentally determined by the institutions and property rights associated with resource management decisions. Thus an understanding of property rights regimes, the constraints which they impose on users of wetlands resources, and the distribution of benefits of use among users and non-users are essential if the economic values of wetland ecosystems and functions are to be realised. We outline relevant theoretical perspectives on property rights and the sustainable utilisation of natural resources. We argue that wetland resources tend to have unique property rights regimes due to their ecological characteristics, namely, their multiple-resource characteristics, the indivisible nature of these resources, and the seasonal and cyclical nature of different wetland resource components. Case studies of property rights regimes in Indonesia and Vietnam are presented. These show that wetland resources are often managed as common pool resources, and that state appropriation of resources or the imposition of private property rights can contribute to unsustainable utilisation or conversion of wetlands to other uses. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
Abstract.
Adger WN (2000). Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?.
Progress in Human Geography,
24(3), 347-364.
Abstract:
Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?
This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined.
Abstract.
Kelly PM, Adger WN (2000). Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation.
Climatic Change,
47(4), 325-352.
Abstract:
Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation
We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources.
Abstract.
Adger WN (1999). Evolution of economy and environment: an application to land use in lowland Vietnam.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,
31(3), 365-379.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1999). Exploring income inequality in rural, coastal Viet Nam.
JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES,
35(5), 96-119.
Author URL.
Cannell MGR, Milne R, Hargreaves KJ, Brown TAW, Cruickshank MM, Bradley RI, Spencer T, Hope D, Billett MF, Adger WN, et al (1999). National inventories of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks: the UK experience.
CLIMATIC CHANGE,
42(3), 505-530.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Kelly PM (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
4(3-4), 253-266.
Abstract:
Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements
The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neoclassical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.
Abstract.
Turner RK, Adger WN, Crooks S, Lorenzoni I, Ledoux L (1999). Sustainable coastal resources management: Principles and practice.
Natural Resources Forum,
23(4), 275-286.
Abstract:
Sustainable coastal resources management: Principles and practice
Coastal zones are currently experiencing intense and sustained environmental pressures from a range of driving forces. Responsible agencies around the globe are seeking ways of better managing the causes and consequences of the environmental change process in coastal areas. This article discusses the basic principles underpinning a more integrated approach to coastal management, as well as the obstacles to its implementation in both developed and developing countries. The fulfilment of the goal of sustainable utilisation of coastal resources via integrated management is likely to prove to be difficult. Any successful strategy will have to encompass all the elements of management from planning and design through financing and implementation. An interdisciplinary analytical and operational approach is also required, combined with a more flexible and participatory institutional structure and emphasis to account for multiple stakeholders and resource demands. As historical and institutional perspectives as well as socio-economic and cultural contexts are also important, two case studies (based on UK and Vietnamese experiences) are presented in order to identify arguments and examine these aspects in more detail.
Abstract.
Turner RK, Adger WN, Brouwer R (1998). Ecosystem services value, research needs, and policy relevance: a commentary.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,
25(1), 61-65.
Author URL.
Tri NH, Adger WN, Kelly PM (1998). Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,
8(1), 49-61.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1998). Observing institutional adaptation to global environmental change: Theory and case study from Vietnam.
Working Paper - Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 98-21).
Abstract:
Observing institutional adaptation to global environmental change: Theory and case study from Vietnam
This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. It argues that institutions encompass both socialised ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organisations which influence resource allocation. Adaptation of the institutions which mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed through examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decision-making and non-decision-making and through changing perceptions of vulnerability. This framework is applied to a case study in the context of Vietnam under its present economic and political transition. The case study developed in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam highlights local level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with this hazardous coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork in this District involving qualitative household survey and elite interviewing to elicit present and recent historical coping and adaptation in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as being successful from a macro-economic perspective, this study argues that this masks some important aspects of social vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for the management of risk by state institutions is determined by inertia in some aspects of the decentralised state planning system, while parallel spontaneous re-emergence of civil society institutions form a counter-balancing institutional adaptation.
Abstract.
Maddison D, Pearce D, Adger N, McLeod H (1997). Environmentally damaging subsidies in the United Kingdom.
European Environment,
7(4), 110-117.
Abstract:
Environmentally damaging subsidies in the United Kingdom
It is widely understood that many subsidies have the unintended effect of promoting activities associated with environmental degradation. But the sheer size of the implicit subsidies which various sectors receive is often not appreciated. Neither is it realised that the practice of estimating the extent of subsidies is far from straightforward, that there are good and bad reasons for subsidies and environmental degradation is often as indirect one. This paper analyses the hypothesised linkages between environmental degradation and the subsidies offered to certain activities and offers a quantitative estimate of the size of environmentally damaging subsidies which currently exist in the United Kingdom. It is found that environmentally damaging subsidies at present exceed 20 billion with the largest single subsidy going to users of transport infrastructure.
Abstract.
Whitby MC, Adger WN (1997). Natural and reproducible capital and the sustainability of land use in the UK: a reply. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 48(3), 454-458.
Neil Adger W, Mick Kelly P, Tri NH (1997). Valuing the products and services of mangrove restoration.
Commonwealth Forestry Review,
76(3), 198-202.
Abstract:
Valuing the products and services of mangrove restoration
The rehabilitation of mangrove forests results in both marketed economic products and in the enhancement of coastal protection services. This latter indirect benefit is important where hazards such as storm surges and floods make communties vulnerable to climate risks.Estimates are presented of the benefits of mangrove restoration undertaken to enhance sea defence systems in three coastal districts of northern Vietnam. Mangrove rehabilitation can be desirable from an economic perspective based solely on the direct use benefits by local communities. Such activities have even higher benefit cost ratios with the inclusion of the indirect benefits resulting from the avoided maintenance cost for the sea dike system which the mangrove stands protect from coastal storm surges.
Abstract.
Adger WN (1996). Approaches to vulnerability to climate change.
Working Paper - Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment,
GEC 96-05Abstract:
Approaches to vulnerability to climate change
This paper argues that social vulnerability of climate variability is the key dimension in the constitution of vulnerability, and that this parameter shifts emphasis onto the underlying rather than the proximate causes of vulnerability. It is suggested that the aspects of individual and collective vulnerability are distinct. They encompass relative poverty and deprivation as well as informal social security at the individual level; and infrastructure, the role of the state and police intervention at the collective level. Vulnerability to climate change encompasses changes in individual and collective vulnerability over time associated with the changing incidence of extreme events. These hypotheses are illustrated by a preview of research results from a case study employing this framework in northern Vietnam. The results show that social and economic change in Vietnam exacerbates some aspects of vulnerability, while offsetting these by other mechanisms. The relevant indicators include levels of poverty, levels of inequality and institutional analysis.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Subak S (1996). Estimating above-ground Carbon Fluxes from UK Agricultural Land.
Geographical Journal,
162(2), 191-204.
Abstract:
Estimating above-ground Carbon Fluxes from UK Agricultural Land
Land use changes can result in emissions and removals from the atmosphere of the most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), thus influencing potential climatic change. In this study, annual agricultural census data is used to estimate the net flux from land use change on UK agricultural land, which comprises over three quarters of the UK land area. The assessment includes a new estimate of changes in carbon storage on arable land due to improvements in yield and changes in area devoted to different crops. The study complements recent assessments of CO2 flux in the forestry sector, and provides an alternative to a previous assessment of CO2 flux in the agricultural sector based on periodic land cover surveys. In this study the authors estimate changes in CO2 emissions and storage from above-ground biomass on agricultural land for the period 1970-1992. Annual CO2-C flux on agricultural land is estimated as 200 to 417 kC per year in the period 1970-1988 and 339 to 371 kC per year during 1988-1992. These results are consistent with the estimated range for 1990 published in the UK national communication to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but may provide a preferable point estimate for the agricultural sector. The intervals used in this study were selected in order to identify flux changes resulting from important new UK land use policy: the introduction in 1988 of incentives to take arable land out of production, known as set-aside. To date, the set-aside programme has resulted in very little carbon sequestration. However such a policy could result in much greater carbon sequestration in future, as the rotation requirement for such land use has been waived from 1996 onwards.
Abstract.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger WN (1996). Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems.
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,
20(2), 159-173.
Author URL.
Turner RK, Adger N, Doktor P (1995). Assessing the economic costs of sea level rise.
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A,
27(11), 1777-1796.
Author URL.
PEARCE D, ADGER N, MADDISON D, MORAN D (1995). DEBT AND THE ENVIRONMENT.
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,
272(6), 52-56.
Author URL.
Pearce D, Adger N, Maddison D, Moran D (1995). Debt and the environment. Scientific American, 272(6), 28-32.
Mudge F, Adger WN (1995). Methane fluxes from artificial wetlands: a global appraisal.
Environmental Management,
19(1), 39-55.
Abstract:
Methane fluxes from artificial wetlands: a global appraisal
Methane emissions make an important contribution to the enhanced greenhouse effect, emissions from rice growing being one of its major anthropogenic sources. The estimation of global fluxes of methane from rice and from coarse fiber production depends on extrapolating observed data across countries and agroclimatic zones: the estimates are therefore imprecise. We present a revised estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH4/yr, given 1991 rice areas, and 1991 production data for those tropical coarse fibers that also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. This is higher than many previous studies, which systematically underestimated the fluxes from tropical countries. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertilizer use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit or rice production. © 1995 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K (1995). Policy implications of the missing global carbon sink. Area, 27(4), 311-317.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger N (1995). Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-09).
Abstract:
Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socio-economic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damages in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures, information, economic market and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. A precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. -from Authors
Abstract.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger N (1995). Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-09).
Abstract:
Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socio-economic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damages in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures, information, economic market and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. A precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. -from Authors
Abstract.
Adger N (1995). Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-25).
Abstract:
Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa
Land reform is a key element in the reconstruction and development programme being undertaken in South Africa. In areas presently used for nature conservation, evidence is presented that nature conservation activities, particularly with tourism revenue, can be the most "profitable'. This paper argues however that distinction between mutually exclusive land uses such as agriculture or nature conservation is false, as demonstrated elsewhere in Africa. In order to integrate nature conservation with other land uses, redistribution of property rights allowing multiple land uses is required. These issues are reviewed with reference to a case study of the northern Transvaal region. -from Author
Abstract.
Adger N (1995). Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-25).
Abstract:
Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa
Land reform is a key element in the reconstruction and development programme being undertaken in South Africa. In areas presently used for nature conservation, evidence is presented that nature conservation activities, particularly with tourism revenue, can be the most "profitable'. This paper argues however that distinction between mutually exclusive land uses such as agriculture or nature conservation is false, as demonstrated elsewhere in Africa. In order to integrate nature conservation with other land uses, redistribution of property rights allowing multiple land uses is required. These issues are reviewed with reference to a case study of the northern Transvaal region. -from Author
Abstract.
ADGER WN, BROWN K, CERVIGNI R, MORAN D (1995). TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORESTS IN MEXICO.
AMBIO,
24(5), 286-296.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Grohs F (1994). Aggregate estimate of environmental degradation for Zimbabwe: Does sustainable national income ensure sustainability?.
Ecological Economics,
11(2), 93-104.
Abstract:
Aggregate estimate of environmental degradation for Zimbabwe: Does sustainable national income ensure sustainability?
Standard measures of economic growth do not adequately reflect changes in aggregate welfare over time. Sustainable national income is therefore defined as Net National Product with adjustments for the degradation of renewable and non-renewable capital. Productivity loss rather than replacement cost is the most theoretically correct way to value resource depletion. Modified net product is estimated for the agriculture and forestry sectors of Zimbabwe by valuing the loss of forest stock and soil erosion. The results show that traditional measures overstate the value of the agricultural sector's product by approximately 10% in 1989. It is argued that indicators of sustainable national income do not ensure sustainable development; as with all macroeconomic indicators, they do not account for distributional and equity issues which are at the crux of sustainable development, nor do they point to mechanisms that would ensure sustainable resource management. Rising sustainable income over time is therefore a necessary but not sufficient condition for the achievement of sustainable development. © 1994.
Abstract.
BROWN K, ADGER WN (1994). ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF INTERNATIONAL CARBON OFFSETS.
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,
68(2-3), 217-229.
Author URL.
Mudge F, Adger N (1994). Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-08).
Abstract:
Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production
Methane is an important contributor to the greenhouse effect, and rice growing is one of the major anthropogenic sources. The paper presents a revised central estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH4 per year, given 1991 rice areas and 1991 production data for coarse fibres which are grown with rice in rotation and which also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertiliser use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit of rice production. -from Authors
Abstract.
Mudge F, Adger N (1994). Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-08).
Abstract:
Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production
Methane is an important contributor to the greenhouse effect, and rice growing is one of the major anthropogenic sources. The paper presents a revised central estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH 4. per year, given 1991 rice areas and 1991 production data for coarse fibres which are grown with rice in rotation and which also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertiliser use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit of rice production. -from Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K, Cervigni R, Moran D (1994). Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-21).
Abstract:
Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico
Failure to account for the numerous functions and economic uses of forests have led to patterns of global forest use with many detrimental environmental consequences. This study demonstrates the economic techniques for estimating the total economic value (TEV) of forests. For the Mexican forest estate, the results show an annual lower bound value of the services of the total forest area to be in the order of $4 billion. This aggregate value stems from the non-marketed services provided by non-consumptive use; from future potential uses of the genetic resources and from pure existence values; and the largest proportion of economic value coming from the functional values of hydrological and carbon cycling. However, only a proportion of this value can feasibly be "captured' within Mexico: much of the benefit of Mexico's forest falls outside the country's borders, and is therefore not considered by forest users or national policy makers. -Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K, Cervigni R, Moran D (1994). Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-21).
Abstract:
Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico
Failure to account for the numerous functions and economic uses of forests have led to patterns of global forest use with many detrimental environmental consequences. This study demonstrates the economic techniques for estimating the total economic value (TEV) of forests. For the Mexican forest estate, the results show an annual lower bound value of the services of the total forest area to be in the order of $4 billion. This aggregate value stems from the non-marketed services provided by non-consumptive use; from future potential uses of the genetic resources and from pure existence values; and the largest proportion of economic value coming from the functional values of hydrological and carbon cycling. However, only a proportion of this value can feasibly be "captured' within Mexico: much of the benefit of Mexico's forest falls outside the country's borders, and is therefore not considered by forest users or national policy makers. -Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (1994). Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-14).
Abstract:
Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect
Land use activities constitute a major but uncertain source of emissions currently enhancing the greenhouse effect. The terrestrial stock of carbon is also uncertain and has been hypothesised as a possible site for the "missing' carbon sink. The policy implications of the missing sink being located in the terrestrial biota are discussed. Future strategies which offset global emissions through afforestation, for example, may become more cost effective with increased CO 2. fertilisation or through the re-estimation of biomass and soil carbon uptake. Estimates are presented of the cost-effectiveness of afforesting land diverted from agriculture in the UK in this context. It is found that the likelihood both of afforestation, and of halting deforestation globally, is diminished by policy failures which exacerbate unsustainable and undesirable use of land. A greater understanding of the location of the missing sink could redirect abatement efforts towards the conservation of land based resources, and make the carbon cycle implications of land use change an even more significant issue. -from Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (1994). Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-14).
Abstract:
Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect
Land use activities constitute a major but uncertain source of emissions currently enhancing the greenhouse effect. The terrestrial stock of carbon is also uncertain and has been hypothesised as a possible site for the "missing' carbon sink. The policy implications of the missing sink being located in the terrestrial biota are discussed. Future strategies which offset global emissions through afforestation, for example, may become more cost effective with increased CO2 fertilisation or through the re-estimation of biomass and soil carbon uptake. Estimates are presented of the cost-effectiveness of afforesting land diverted from agriculture in the UK in this context. It is found that the likelihood both of afforestation, and of halting deforestation globally, is diminished by policy failures which exacerbate unsustainable and undesirable use of land. A greater understanding of the location of the missing sink could redirect abatement efforts towards the conservation of land based resources, and make the carbon cycle implications of land use change an even more significant issue. -from Authors
Abstract.
ADGER WN, BROWN K (1993). A UK GREENHOUSE-GAS INVENTORY - ON ESTIMATING ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL SOURCES AND SINKS.
AMBIO,
22(8), 509-517.
Author URL.
BROWN K, ADGER N (1993). ESTIMATING NATIONAL GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS UNDER THE CLIMATE-CHANGE CONVENTION.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,
3(2), 149-158.
Author URL.
Adger N, Fankhauser S (1993). Economic analysis of the greenhouse effect: Optimal abatement level and strategies for mitigation.
International Journal of Environment and Pollution,
3(1-3), 104-119.
Abstract:
Economic analysis of the greenhouse effect: Optimal abatement level and strategies for mitigation
The economic analysis of global warming involves identifying and quantifying in economic terms the impacts of global warming and the abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions. At the global level, countries will act strategically depending on their perceived costs and impacts. This is simulated through a global model of costs and damage of global warming. At the local level, the impacts of global warming are effectively exogenous to the decision problem. This is illustrated by a case study of mitigation options in the face of climate-induced sea-level rise in East Anglia, UK. Both cases result in recommendations for precautionary action in the face of uncertainty as to the future potential damage of global warming.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Turner RK (1993). Global environmental change and mechanisms for north‐south resource transfers.
Journal of International Development,
5(6), 571-589.
Abstract:
Global environmental change and mechanisms for north‐south resource transfers
Global Environmental Change is central to the debate on the relationship between environmental degradaton and economic development. This paper examines the agreements signed at the Earth Summit held in Rio in 1992 and highlights some implications for developing countries. The interim mechanism for resource transfer under the Conventions is the Global Enviornmental Facility, but it appears that transfers on a scale necessary to bring anout sustainable development as envisaged by Agenda 21 cannot be made through this mechanism alone. It is argued here that other mechanisms to promote development, such as debt relief, should not be ignored. Copyright © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Abstract.
ADGER WN, WHITBY MC (1993). NATURAL-RESOURCE ACCOUNTING IN THE LAND-USE SECTOR - THEORY AND PRACTICE.
EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,
20(1), 77-97.
Author URL.
ADGER WN, BROWN K, SHIEL RS, WHITBY MC (1992). CARBON DYNAMICS OF LAND-USE IN GREAT-BRITAIN.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,
36(2), 117-133.
Author URL.
ADGER WN, CHIGUME S (1992). METHODOLOGIES AND INSTITUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE EVOLVING ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK.
THIRD WORLD PLANNING REVIEW,
14(3), 283-295.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Brown K, Shiel RS, Whitby MC (1992). Sequestration and emissions from agriculture and forestry. Carbon in the dock. Land Use Policy, 9(2), 122-130.
Pearce D, Fankhauser S, Adger N, Swanson T (1992). World Economy, World Environment. World Economy, 15(3), 295-314.
Adger N, Whitby M (1991). Accounting for the impact of agriculture and forestry on environmental quality.
European Economic Review,
35(2-3), 629-641.
Abstract:
Accounting for the impact of agriculture and forestry on environmental quality
A framework for modifying sectoral accounts for environmental externalities is assembled as a basis for estimating the National Income Accounts for U.K. agriculture and forestry. Valuation of positive and negative environmental impacts draws on revealed and expressed preference evaluations. The approach taken seeks to modify the national accounts for agriculture and forestry by first assessing the physical significance of the relevant externalities (in terms of land use designations and physical pollutants) and then valuing them using existing studies. © 1991.
Abstract.
Whitby MC, Adger WN (1991). Assessing the environmental impacts of land use; What role for economic assessment?.
European Environment,
1(4), 13-17.
Abstract:
Assessing the environmental impacts of land use; What role for economic assessment?
How do governments choose from the range of instruments and policies available in the environmental planning and protection process? Martin Whitby and Neil Adger examine the physical evaluation methods of land use change and greenhouse gases, the tacit value of the environment within the agriculture and conservation policies of the UK and the techniques of economic environmental evaluation. They suggest that as the techniques and costs of collecting and interpreting environmental information improve, a more rational choice of environmental l policy should follow. Copyright © 1991 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Abstract.
Adger WN, Whitby MC (1991). Environmental assessment in forestry: the initial experience.
Journal of Rural Studies,
7(4), 385-395.
Abstract:
Environmental assessment in forestry: the initial experience
This study analyses the effectiveness of the European Community's Environmental Assessment Directive of 1985 in its application in the U.K. forestry sector. It assesses the applicability of the regulations in the provision of the public and private outputs of forestry. The environmental assessment regulation may contribute to the provision of the optimal amount of these public and private goods in theory, but it is concluded that, in common with initial results of the environmental assessment process in other sectors, the regulations do not make this contribution in practice in the forestry sector. The main deficiencies of the environmental statements examined were the failure to identify the significant potential impacts; to present alternative project sites and design features; and the erroneous measure of particular externalities. The environmental assessment process was also found to be unsatisfactory in the lack of public accessibility and consultation. The need for revision of the process in the forestry sector is highlighted. © 1991.
Abstract.
Chapters
Adger N, Safra De Campos R (2020). Climate change disruptions to migration systems. In Bastia T, Skeldon R (Eds.)
Routledge Handbook of Migration and Development, London: Routledge, 382-395.
Abstract:
Climate change disruptions to migration systems
Abstract.
Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (2020). Delta challenges and trade-offs from the Holocene to the Anthropocene. In Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Palgrave, 1-22.
Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton SE, Hansen SE, Lazar A, Vincent K (2020). Sustainable deltas in the Anthropocene. In Nciholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Pagrave, 247-280.
Safra De Campos R, Codjoe S, Adger N, Mortreux C, Hazra S, Siddiqui T, Das S, Atiglo Y, Bhuiyan R, Rocky MH, et al (2020). Where People Live and Move in Deltas. In Nicholls R, Adger WN, Hutton C, Hanson S (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Palgrave, 153-177.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Lázár AN, Neil Adger W, Allan A, Whitehead PG, Wolf J, Rahman MM, Salehin M, Hanson SE, et al (2018). An integrated approach providing scientific and policy-relevant insights for South-West Bangladesh. In (Ed)
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, 49-69.
Abstract:
An integrated approach providing scientific and policy-relevant insights for South-West Bangladesh
Abstract.
Adams H, Neil Adger W, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Chan M, Lázár AN, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Streatfield PK, et al (2018). Characterising associations between poverty and ecosystem services. In (Ed)
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, 425-444.
Abstract:
Characterising associations between poverty and ecosystem services
Abstract.
Adams H, Adger N, Ahmed M, Huq H, Rahman R, Salehin M (2018). Defining social-ecological systems in south-west Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 405-423.
Adams H, Adger N, Nicholls R (2018). Ecosystem Services Linked to Livelihoods and Well-Being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 29-47.
Adger N, Adams H, Kay S, Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018). Ecosystem services, well-being and deltas: Current knowledge and understanding. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 3-27.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Adger N, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018). Integrative analysis for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 71-90.
Adger N, Fortnam M (2018). Interactions of migration and population dynamics with ecosystem services. In Schreckenber K, Mace GM, Poudyal M (Eds.)
Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation: Trade-offs and Governance, London: Routledge, 77-93.
Abstract:
Interactions of migration and population dynamics with ecosystem services
Abstract.
Adger N, Safra De Campos R, Mortreux C (2018). Mobility, displacement and migration and their interactions with vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risks. In McLeman R, Gemenne F (Eds.) Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration, London: Routledge, 29-41.
Szabo S, Ahmad S, Adger WN (2018). Population dynamics in the south-west of Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salesian M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 349-365.
Adger WN, Hughes TP, Folke C, Carpenter SR, Rockström J (2018). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. In (Ed) Planning for Climate Change: a Reader in Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Design for Resilient Cities, 151-159.
Adger N, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C (2018). The social contract for climate risks: private and public responses. In Scavenius T, Rayner S (Eds.)
Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Response a New Approach to Climate Politics, London: Routledge, 76-89.
Abstract:
The social contract for climate risks: private and public responses
Abstract.
Adger WN (2015). Climate change, human well-being and insecurity. In Matthew R (Ed) Environmental Security. Volume Four: the Security Implications of Climate Change, London: Sage.
Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Adger N (2015). Place attachment, identity and adaptation. In O'Brien K, Selboe E (Eds.) The Adaptive Challenge of Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 160-170.
Adger WN (2015). The right to keep cold. In Hulme M (Ed) Climates and Cultures. Volume 5: Cultural Readings of Climate, London: Sage.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2014). "Climate dangers and atoll countries": Climate change (2003). In (Ed) Cities of the Global South Reader, 221-226.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2014). Chapter 13: Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In (Ed) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar Publishing, 206-216.
Adger WN, Hodbod J (2014). Chapter 6: Ecological and social resilience. In (Ed) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar Publishing, 91-102.
Adger WN, Hodbod J (2014). Ecological and social resilience. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E, Agrawala M (Eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Cheltenham: Elgar, 91-101.
Adger WN (2014). Environmental and ecological economics. In (Ed) Environmental Science for Environmental Management, 93-118.
Adger WN, O'Riordan T (2014). Population, adaptation and resilience. In (Ed) Environmental Science for Environmental Management, 149-170.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2014). Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E, Agrawala M (Eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Cheltenham: Elgar, 206-216.
Barnett J, Mortreux C, Adger WN (2013). Barriers and limits to adaptation: cautionary notes. In Boulter S, Palutikof J, Karoly DJ, Guitart D (Eds.) Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 223-235.
Adams H, Adger WN (2013). Changing places: migration and adaptation to climate change. In Sygna L, O'Brien K, Wolf J (Eds.) The Changing Environment for Human Security: Transformative Approaches to Research, Policy, and Action, London: Routledge-Earthscan, 413-423.
Adger WN (2013). Emerging dimensions of fair process for adaptation decision-making. In Palutikof J, Boulter SL, Ash AJ, Smith MS, Parry M, Waschka M, Guitart D (Eds.)
Climate Adaptation Futures, Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 69-74.
Abstract:
Emerging dimensions of fair process for adaptation decision-making
Abstract.
Adger WN, Adams H (2013). Migration as an adaptation strategy to environmental change. In (Ed) World Social Science Report 2013. Changing Global Environments: the Social Challenge, Paris: International Social Science Council, 261-264.
Adams H, Adger WN, Huq H, Rahman R, Salehin M (2013). Transformations in land use in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh: Resilience and reversibility under environmental change. In O'Brien KL, Sygna L (Eds.) Proceedings of Transformation in a Changing Climate International Conference, Oslo: University of Oslo, 160-168.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012). Environment, society and precipitous change. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 3-18.
Abstract:
Environment, society and precipitous change
Abstract.
Kelly PM, Lien TV, Hien HM, Ninh NH, Adger WN (2012). Managing environmental change in vietnam. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 35-58.
Abstract:
Managing environmental change in vietnam
Abstract.
Burton I, Dube OP, Campbell-Lendrum D, Davis I, Klein RJT, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Sanghi A, Toth F, Pereira JJ, Sygna L, et al (2012). Managing the risks: International level and integration across scales. In (Ed)
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 393-436.
Abstract:
Managing the risks: International level and integration across scales
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH, Thanh NC (2012). Property rights, institutions and resource management: Coastal resources under doi moi. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 79-92.
Abstract:
Property rights, institutions and resource management: Coastal resources under doi moi
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012). Prospects for sustainable development. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 263-270.
Abstract:
Prospects for sustainable development
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM (2012). Social vulnerability and resilience. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 19-34.
Abstract:
Social vulnerability and resilience
Abstract.
Adger WN, Nicholson-Cole S (2011). Ethical dimensions of adapting to climate change imposed risks. In Arnold DG (Ed)
The Ethics of Global Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 255-271.
Abstract:
Ethical dimensions of adapting to climate change imposed risks
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Waters JJ (2011). Resilience. In Dryzek JS, Norgaard RB, Schlosberg D (Eds.)
The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 696-710.
Abstract:
Resilience
Abstract.
Adger WN (2010). Addressing barriers and social challenges of climate change adaptation. In Kasperson RE, Stern PC (Eds.)
Facilitating Climate Change Responses: Report on Knowledge from the Social and Behavioural Sciences, Washington DC: National Academy Press, 79-84.
Abstract:
Addressing barriers and social challenges of climate change adaptation
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2010). Environmental change, human security and violent conflict. In Matthew RA, Barnett J, McDonald B, O'Brien K (Eds.)
Global environmental change and human security: Understanding Environmental Threats to Wellbeing and Livelihoods, Cambridge: MIT Press, 119-136.
Abstract:
Environmental change, human security and violent conflict
Abstract.
Adger WN, Nelson D (2010). Fair decision making in a new climate of risk. In Clair ALS, Kristoffersen B, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Climate Change, Ethics and Human Security, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 83-94.
Abstract:
Fair decision making in a new climate of risk
Abstract.
Adger WN, Rayner T (2010). Oral evidence and written memorandum. In House of Commons Environment Audit Committee (Ed) Adapting to Climate Change: Sixth Report of Session 2009-10, London: Stationary Office, 96-108.
Adger WN, Barnett J, Ellemor H (2010). Unique and Valued Places. In Schneider SH, Rosencranz A, Mastrandrea MD (Eds.)
Climate change science and policy, Island Press, 131-138.
Abstract:
Unique and Valued Places
Abstract.
Goulden M, Naess LO, Vincent K, Adger WN (2009). Accessing diversification, networks and traditional resource management as adaptations to climate extremes. In Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 448-464.
Abstract:
Accessing diversification, networks and traditional resource management as adaptations to climate extremes
Abstract.
Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien K (2009). Adaptation now. In Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 1-22.
Abstract:
Adaptation now
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (2009). Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience: ecological and social perspectives. In Castree N, Demeritt D, Liverman D, Rhoads B (Eds.)
A Companion to Environmental Geography, Oxford: Blackwell, 109-122.
Abstract:
Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience: ecological and social perspectives
Abstract.
Daw T, Adger WN, Brown K, Badjeck M-C (2009). Climate change and capture fisheries. In Cochrane K, De Young C, Soto D, Bahri T (Eds.) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Overview of current scientific knowledge. Technical Paper 530, Rome: FAO, 107-153.
Osman-Elasha B, Parrotta J, Adger WN, Brockhaus M, Pierce Colfer C, Sohngen B (2009). Future Socio-Economic Impacts and Vulnerabilities. In Seppälä R, Buck A, Katila P (Eds.) Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. IUFRO World Series Vol. 22, Helsinki: IUFRO, 101-122.
Adger WN, Eakin H, Winkels A (2009). Nested and networked vulnerabilities. In Lebel L (Ed) Critical States: Environmental Challenges to Development in Monsoon Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur: Gerakbudaya, 411-423.
Adger WN, Jordan A (2009). Sustainability: exploring the processes and outcomes of governance. In Adger WN, Jordan A (Eds.)
Governing Sustainability, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 3-31.
Abstract:
Sustainability: exploring the processes and outcomes of governance
Abstract.
Adger WN (2008). Governments, responsibilities, barriers and actors in adaptation action for climate change. In Bierbaum R, Brown D, McAlpine J (Eds.) Coping with Climate Change, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 108-116.
Adger WN, Agrawala S, Mirza M, Conde C, O'Brien KL, Pulhin J, Pulwarty R, Smit B, Takahashi K (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof JP, Hansen C, van der Linden P (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Pr, 719-743.
Abstract:
Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
Abstract.
Morsello C, Adger WN (2007). Do partnerships between large corporations and Amazonian indigenous groups help or hinder communities and forests?. In Ros-Tonen M, Hombergh HVD, Zoomers EB (Eds.)
Partnerships in sustainable forest resource management, Leiden: Brill Academic Pub, 147-167.
Abstract:
Do partnerships between large corporations and Amazonian indigenous groups help or hinder communities and forests?
Abstract.
Adger WN (2007). Ecological and social resilience. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E (Eds.)
Handbook of sustainable development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 78-90.
Abstract:
Ecological and social resilience
Abstract.
Adger WN, Agrawala, S. Aggarwal P, Alcamo J (2007). Summary for policy-makers. In Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof JP, Hansen C, van der Linden P (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 7-22.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2007). Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E (Eds.)
Handbook of sustainable development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 189-204.
Abstract:
Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being
Abstract.
Brooks N, Adger N (2005). Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity. In Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E, Burton I (Eds.) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 165-181.
Yohe G, Adger N, Dowlatabadi H, Ebi K, Huq S, Moran D, Rothman D, Strzerpek K, Ziervogel G (2005). Recognizing uncertainties and evaluating responses. In Chopra K, Leemans R (Eds.) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Responses Assessment Volume 3, Washington DC: Island Press, 95-116.
Adger WN (2003). Chapter 7: Governing natural resources: institutional adaption and resilience. In (Ed) Negotiating Environmental Change, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Adger WN (2003). Social aspects of adaptive capacity. In Smith J, Klein R, Huq S (Eds.)
Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development, London: Imperial College Press, 29-49.
Abstract:
Social aspects of adaptive capacity
Abstract.
Turner RK, Bateman IJ, Adger WN (2001). Ecological Economics and Coastal Zone Ecosystems’ Values: an Overview. In (Ed) Economics of Coastal and Water Resources: Valuing Environmental Functions, Springer Nature, 1-43.
Brouwer R, Bateman IJ, Turner RK, Adger WN, Boar R, Crooks S, Dockerty T, Georgiou S, Jones A, Langford IH, et al (2001). Management of a Multi-Purpose Coastal Wetland: the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads, England. In (Ed) Economics of Coastal and Water Resources: Valuing Environmental Functions, Springer Nature, 159-213.
Conferences
Szabo S, Hossain MS, Matthews Z, Lázár AN, Ahmed S, Adger N, Ahmad S (2014). Food insecurity in the rural Ganges Brahmaputra delta: the impact of soil salinity and households' socio-economic characteristics. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference: Integrative Risk Management - the Role of Science, Technology and Practice.
Abstract:
Food insecurity in the rural Ganges Brahmaputra delta: the impact of soil salinity and households' socio-economic characteristics
Abstract.
Wreford A, Adger N (2009). What can we learn from historic adaptations to extreme events in agriculture?.
Tri NH, Hong PN, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2003). Mangrove conservation and restoration for enhanced resilience.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam.
Author URL.
Whitby M, Adger WN (1996). Natural and reproducible capital and the sustainability of land use in the UK.
Author URL.
ADGER WN (1995). COMPLIANCE WITH THE CLIMATE-CHANGE CONVENTION.
Author URL.
ADGER WN, MORAN DC (1994). ESTIMATING THE BENEFITS OF GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSION REDUCTION FROM AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM.
Author URL.
TURNER RK, DOKTOR P, ADGER N (1994). SEA-LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL WETLANDS IN THE UK - MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT.
Author URL.
WHITBY M, ADGER N (1991). MEASURING ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT.
Author URL.
Reports
Cox K, Knack A, Robson M, Adger N, Paille P, Freeman J, Black J, Harris R (2020). A Changing Climate: Exploring the Implications of Climate Change for UK Defence and Security. Global Strategic Partnership, Cambridge, RAND Europe.
Butler C, Walker-Springett K, Adger WN, Evans L, O'Neill S (2016). Social and Political Dynamics of Flood Risk, Recovery and Response.A Report of the Findings of the Winter Floods Project. Exeter, University of Exeter.
Challinor A, Adger N, Di Mauro M, Baylis M, Benton T, Conway D, Depledge D, Geddes A, McCorriston S, Stringer L, et al (2016). UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report: Chapter 7, International Dimensions. London, Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.
Adger WN, Pulhin JM, Barnett J, Dabelko GD, Hovelsrud GK, Levy M, Oswald Spring U, Vogel CH, Adams H, Hodbod J, et al (eds)(2014). Human Security. IPCC, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 36 pages.
Publications by year
2023
Jolivet D, Fransen S, Adger WN, Fábos A, Abu M, Allen C, Boyd E, Carr ER, Codjoe SNA, Gavonel MF, et al (2023). COVID-19 responses restricted abilities and aspirations for mobility and migration: insights from diverse cities in four continents.
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications,
10(1).
Abstract:
COVID-19 responses restricted abilities and aspirations for mobility and migration: insights from diverse cities in four continents
AbstractResearch on the impacts of COVID-19 on mobility has focused primarily on the increased health vulnerabilities of involuntary migrant and displaced populations. But virtually all migration flows have been truncated and altered because of reduced economic and mobility opportunities of migrants. Here we use a well-established framework of migration decision-making, whereby individual decisions combine the aspiration and ability to migrate, to explain how public responses to the COVID-19 pandemic alter migration patterns among urban populations across the world. The principal responses to COVID-19 pandemic that affected migration are: 1) through travel restrictions and border closures, 2) by affecting abilities to move through economic and other means, and 3) by affecting aspirations to move. Using in-depth qualitative data collected in six cities in four continents (Accra, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dhaka, Maputo, and Worcester), we explore how populations with diverse levels of education and occupations were affected in their current and future mobility decisions. We use data from interviews with sample of internal and international migrants and non-migrants during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak to identify the mechanisms through which the pandemic affected their mobility decisions. The results show common processes across the different geographical contexts: individuals perceived increased risks associated with further migration, which affected their migration aspirations, and had reduced abilities to migrate, all of which affected their migration decision-making processes. The results also reveal stark differences in perceived and experienced migration decision-making across precarious migrant groups compared to high-skilled and formally employed international migrants in all settings. This precarity of place is particularly evident in low-income marginalised populations.
Abstract.
Szaboova L, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Maharjan A, Sakdapolrak P, Sterly H, Conway D, Codjoe SNA, Abu M (2023). Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: Trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability.
One Earth,
6(6), 620-631.
Abstract:
Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: Trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability
The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option.
Abstract.
Quinn T, Heath S, Adger WN, Abu M, Butler C, Codjoe SNA, Horvath C, Martinez-Juarez P, Morrissey K, Murphy C, et al (2023). Health and wellbeing implications of adaptation to flood risk.
Ambio,
52(5), 952-962.
Abstract:
Health and wellbeing implications of adaptation to flood risk
Adaptation strategies to ameliorate the impacts of climate change are increasing in scale and scope around the world, with interventions becoming a part of daily life for many people. Though the implications of climate impacts for health and wellbeing are well documented, to date, adaptations are largely evaluated by financial cost and their effectiveness in reducing risk. Looking across different forms of adaptation to floods, we use existing literature to develop a typology of key domains of impact arising from interventions that are likely to shape health and wellbeing. We suggest that this typology can be used to assess the health consequences of adaptation interventions more generally and argue that such forms of evaluation will better support the development of sustainable adaptation planning.
Abstract.
Adger WN (2023). Loss and Damage from climate change: legacies from Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh.
Scottish Geographical Journal,
139(1-2), 142-149.
Abstract:
Loss and Damage from climate change: legacies from Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh
Conferences of the UN climate change convention have legacies both in formal outcomes and treaties and in raising the profile of emerging climate dilemmas. The joint legacies of COP26 in Glasgow and COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh have been in elevating the profile and formalising the potential for solidaristic action on ‘Loss and Damage’ from climate change. This article reviews the documented outcomes on Loss and Damage from the two events to analyse the significance and constraints of this element of the overall climate change regime. Loss and Damage is likely to be constrained as a global collective action by the capacity to identify and measure losses and damages and by the ability of the climate change regime to deliver on meaningful resource transfers. Yet the formalisation of elements of climate justice through Loss and Damage is a real and lasting legacy of these COP events.
Abstract.
2022
Adger WN, Barnett J, Heath S, Jarillo S (2022). Climate change affects multiple dimensions of well-being through impacts, information and policy responses. Nature Human Behaviour, 6(11), 1465-1473.
Chapin FS, Weber EU, Bennett EM, Biggs R, van den Bergh J, Adger WN, Crépin AS, Polasky S, Folke C, Scheffer M, et al (2022). Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts.
Ambio,
51(9), 1907-1920.
Abstract:
Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts
Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.
Abstract.
Levin SA, Anderies JM, Adger N, Barrett S, Bennett EM, Cardenas JC, Carpenter SR, Crepin A-S, Ehrlich P, Fischer J, et al (2022). Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond.
ECOSYSTEMS,
25(3), 697-711.
Author URL.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Agrawal A, Brown K, Hornsey MJ, Hughes TP, Jain M, Lemos MC, McHugh LH, O’Neill S, et al (2022). Radical interventions for climate-impacted systems. Nature Climate Change, 12(12), 1100-1106.
Lu C, Zhang S, Tan C, Li Y, Liu Z, Morrissey K, Adger WN, Sun T, Yin H, Guo J, et al (2022). Reduced health burden and economic benefits of cleaner fuel usage from household energy consumption across rural and urban China.
Environmental Research Letters,
17(1), 014039-014039.
Abstract:
Reduced health burden and economic benefits of cleaner fuel usage from household energy consumption across rural and urban China
Abstract
. Energy consumption in the residential sector is increasing rapidly in China. This study applies an integrated assessment model to investigate the adverse impacts of household energy consumption by various fuel types across rural and urban areas on age- and sex-specific premature deaths associated with PM2.5 pollution at provincial levels for 2015. We further estimate the economic and health co-benefits of a switch from solid fuels to electricity within households. We find that energy consumed by Chinese urban households is nearly 1.6 times than that of rural households. However, premature deaths due to household energy usage is 1.1 times higher in rural areas compared to urban areas due to direct use of coal for heating in rural households. The majority of household consumption-related premature deaths are predominately in the Southern area of China due to the population size and aging population. By replacing coal and biomass with electricity, this paper estimates economic benefits equal to 0.09% (95% CI: 0.08%–0.1%) GDP for rural areas and 0.006% (0.005%–0.007%) of GDP for urban areas of China. The results suggest that mitigation measures such as the promotion and subsidization of cleaner fuels, modern stove within rural households would yield these potential significant economic benefits.
Abstract.
Lu C, Adger WN, Morrissey K, Zhang S, Venevsky S, Yin H, Sun T, Song X, Wu C, Dou X, et al (2022). Scenarios of demographic distributional aspects of health co-benefits from decarbonising urban transport.
The Lancet Planetary Health,
6(6), e461-e474.
Abstract:
Scenarios of demographic distributional aspects of health co-benefits from decarbonising urban transport
Background: There is limited knowledge on the distribution of the health co-benefits of reduced air pollutants and carbon emissions in the transport sector across populations. Methods: This Article describes a health impact assessment used to estimate the health co-benefits of alternative land passenger transport scenarios for the city of Beijing, China, testing the effect of five transport-based scenarios from 2020 to 2050 on health outcomes. New potential scenarios range from implementing a green transport infrastructure, to scenarios primarily based on the electrification of vehicle fleets and a deep decarbonisation scenario with near zero carbon emissions by 2050. The health co-benefits are disaggregated by age and sex and estimated in monetary terms. Findings: the results show that all the alternative mitigation scenarios result in reduced PM2·5 and CO2 emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario during 2020–50. The near zero scenario achieves the largest health co-benefits and economic benefits annually relative to the sole mitigation strategy, preventing 300 (95% CI 229–450) deaths, with health co-benefits and CO2 cost-saving an equivalent of 0·01% (0·00–0·03%) of Beijing's Gross domestic product in 2015 by 2050. Given Beijing's ageing population and higher mortality rate, individuals aged 50 years and older experience the greatest benefit from the mitigation scenarios. Regarding sex, the greatest health benefits occur in men. Interpretation: This assessment provides estimates of the demographic distribution of benefits from the effects of combinations of green transport and decarbonising vehicles in transport futures. The results show that there are substantial positive health outcomes from decarbonising transport in Beijing. Policies aimed at encouraging active travel and use of public transport, increasing the safety of active travel, improving public transport infrastructure, and decarbonising vehicles lead to differential benefits. In addition, disaggregation by age and sex shows that the health impacts related to transport pollution disproportionately influence different age cohorts and genders. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China and FRIEND Project (through the National Research Foundation of Korea, funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT).
Abstract.
2021
Quinn T, Adger WN, Butler C, Walker-Springett K (2021). Community Resilience and Well-Being: an Exploration of Relationality and Belonging after Disasters.
Annals of the American Association of Geographers,
111, 577-590.
Abstract:
Community Resilience and Well-Being: an Exploration of Relationality and Belonging after Disasters
© 2020 by American Association of Geographers. Community resilience is commonly held to be critical for coping with adversity and disturbance. Although the process of community resilience is often contested and critiqued, the enactment of social relations within communities has been shown to ameliorate the worst impacts of disaster events on the well-being of their members. Here, we propose that well-being in the aftermath of disasters is shaped by processes of relationality and belonging within communities. This study uses data from longitudinal mixed-methods research with flood-affected communities in southwest and eastern England directly affected by long-duration and high-impact floods. Analysis from in-depth interviews conducted over eighteen months and from cross-sectional surveys of affected populations shows that active belonging and relational capital are related to self-reported well-being. The results further show that active belonging is consistently significant for well-being, whereas relational capital is only significantly correlated to well-being later in the recovery period, and that social identity processes are central in the link between community dynamics and well-being. The changing identity processes include altered perceptions of community membership and the use of collective identities to frame personal experience. These results suggest that community resilience processes and their relationship to individual well-being are not fixed but evolve through stress, trauma, and renewal.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Safra De Campos R, Siddiqui T, Franco Gavonel M, Szaboova L, Rocky MH, Bhuiyan MRA, Billah T (2021). Human security of urban migrant populations affected by length of residence and environmental hazards.
Journal of Peace Research,
58(1), 50-66.
Abstract:
Human security of urban migrant populations affected by length of residence and environmental hazards
it is widely suggested that migration is a key mechanism linking climate change to violent conflict, particularly through migration increasing the risks of conflict in urban destinations. Yet climate change also creates new forms of insecurity through distress migration, immobility and vulnerability that are prevalent in urban destination locations. Here we examine the extent and nature of human security in migration destinations and test whether insecurity is affected by length of residence and environmental hazards. The study develops an index measure of human security at the individual level to include environmental and climate-related hazards as well as sources of well-being, fear of crime and violence, and mental health outcomes. It examines the elements of human security that explain the prevalence of insecurity among recent and established migrants in low-income urban neighbourhoods. The study reports on data collected in Chattogram in Bangladesh through a survey of migrants (N = 447) and from qualitative data derived using photo elicitation techniques with cohorts of city planners and migrants. The results show that environmental hazards represent an increasing source of perceived insecurity to migrant populations over time, with longer-term migrants perceiving greater insecurity than more recent arrivals, suggesting lack of upward social mobility in low-income slums. Ill-health, fear of eviction, and harassment and violence are key elements of how insecurity is experienced, and these are exacerbated by environmental hazards such as flooding. The study expands the concept of security to encompass central elements of personal risk and well-being and outlines the implications for climate change.
Abstract.
Lau JD, Song AM, Morrison T, Fabinyi M, Brown K, Blythe J, Allison EH, Adger WN (2021). Morals and climate decision-making: insights from social and behavioural sciences.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,
52, 27-35.
Abstract:
Morals and climate decision-making: insights from social and behavioural sciences
Decisions about climate change are inherently moral. They require making moral judgements about important values and the desired state of the present and future world. Hence there are potential benefits in explaining climate action by integrating well-established and emerging knowledge on the role of morality in decision-making. Insights from the social and behavioural sciences can help ground climate change decisions in empirical understandings of how moral values and worldviews manifest in people and societies. Here, we provide an overview of progress in research on morals in the behavioural and social sciences, with an emphasis on empirical research. We highlight the role morals play in motivating and framing climate decisions; outline work describing morals as relational, situated, and dynamic; and review how uneven power dynamics between people and groups with multiple moralities shape climate decision-making. Effective and fair climate decisions require practical understandings of how morality manifests to shape decisions and action. To this end, we aim to better connect insights from social and behavioural scholarship on morality with real-world climate change decision-making.
Abstract.
Adger WN, de Campos RS, Codjoe SNA, Siddiqui T, Hazra S, Das S, Adams H, Gavonel MF, Mortreux C, Abu M, et al (2021). Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas. One Earth, 4(1), 146-157.
Siddiqui T, Szaboova L, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Bhuiyan MRA, Billah T (2021). Policy Opportunities and Constraints for Addressing Urban Precarity of Migrant Populations.
Global Policy,
12(S2), 91-105.
Abstract:
Policy Opportunities and Constraints for Addressing Urban Precarity of Migrant Populations
Addressing sources and drivers of precarity among marginalized migrant populations in urban spaces is central to making cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable for all. Yet dominant policy discourses continue to frame migrants as problematic causes of insecurity and tend to exclude them from policy processes. Deliberative democratic theory suggests that inclusive processes have the potential to create innovative solutions for resilient cities. This study elicits and reports on self-identified sources of precarity and insecurity as experienced by new low-income migrant populations. It combines visual ethnography and deliberative democracy tools in an action research process that facilitated dialogue between migrant populations, urban planners and policy stakeholders. The objective is to elicit policy opportunities and constraints for changing dominant discourses, with a view to enhance marginalized lives and to implement sustainable urban infrastructure in Chattogram, the second largest city of Bangladesh. The results show options for addressing precarity, developed through facilitating migrants and planners to engage with each other’s perspectives. Priorities include focusing on insecure tenure, exposure to environmental hazards, and representation in planning processes. Integrating the perspectives and lived experiences of migrant urban populations into policy processes potentially leads to more effective, sustainable and legitimate solutions.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Butler C, Quinn T (2021). Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience.
Water,
13(3), 349-349.
Abstract:
Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience
Catchment resilience is the capacity of a combined social ecological system, comprised of water, land, ecological resources and communities in a river basin, to deal with sudden shocks and gradual changes, and to adapt and self-organize for progressive change and transform itself for sustainability. This paper proposes that analysis of catchments as social ecological systems can provide key insights into how social and ecological dynamics interact and how some of the negative consequences of unsustainable resource use or environmental degradation can be ameliorated. This requires recognition of the potential for community resilience as a core element of catchment resilience, and moves beyond more structural approaches to emphasize social dynamics. The proposals are based on a review of social ecological systems research, on methods for analyzing community resilience, and a review of social science and action research that suggest ways of generating resilience through community engagement. These methods and approaches maximize insights into the social dynamics of catchments as complex adaptive systems to inform science and practice.
Abstract.
Franco Gavonel M, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Boyd E, Carr ER, Fábos A, Fransen S, Jolivet D, Zickgraf C, Codjoe SNA, et al (2021). The migration-sustainability paradox: transformations in mobile worlds. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 49, 98-109.
Barnett J, Graham S, Quinn T, Adger WN, Butler C (2021). Three ways social identity shapes climate change adaptation.
Environmental Research LettersAbstract:
Three ways social identity shapes climate change adaptation
Abstract
. Adaptation to climate change is inescapably influenced by processes of social identity – how people perceive themselves, others, and their place in the world around them. Yet there is sparse evidence into the specific ways in which identity processes shape adaptation planning and responses. This paper proposes three key ways to understand the relationship between identity formation and adaptation processes: 1) how social identities change in response to perceived climate change risks and threats; 2) how identity change may be an objective of adaptation; and 3) how identity issues can constrain or enable adaptive action. It examines these three areas of focus through a synthesis of evidence on community responses to flooding and subsequent policy responses in Somerset county, UK and the Gippsland East region in Australia, based on indepth longitudinal data collected among those experiencing and enacting adaptation. The results show that adaptation policies are more likely to be effective when they give individuals confidence in the continuity of their in-groups, enhance the self-esteem of these groups, and develop their sense of self-efficacy. These processes of identity formation and evolution are therefore central to individual and collective responses to climate risks.
Abstract.
Cundill G, Singh C, Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Vincent K, Tebboth M, Maharjan A (2021). Toward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses. Global Environmental Change, 69, 102315-102315.
Szaboova L, Safra de Campos R, Adger WN, Abu M, Codjoe SNA, Franco Gavonel M, Das S, Siddiqui T, Rocky MH, Hazra S, et al (2021). Urban sustainability and the subjective well‐being of migrants: the role of risks, place attachment, and aspirations. Population, Space and Place
Sumaila UR, Skerritt DJ, Schuhbauer A, Villasante S, Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Sinan H, Burnside D, Abdallah PR, Abe K, Addo KA, et al (2021). WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies.
Science,
374(6567).
Author URL.
2020
Cox K, Knack A, Robson M, Adger N, Paille P, Freeman J, Black J, Harris R (2020). A Changing Climate: Exploring the Implications of Climate Change for UK Defence and Security. Global Strategic Partnership, Cambridge, RAND Europe.
Morrison TH, Adger N, Barnett J, Brown K, Possingham H, Hughes T (2020). Advancing Coral Reef Governance into the Anthropocene. One Earth, 2(1), 64-74.
Folke C, Österblom H, Jouffray JB, Lambin EF, Adger WN, Scheffer M, Crona BI, Nyström M, Levin SA, Carpenter SR, et al (2020). An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(4).
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Hettiarachchi M, Huchery C, Lemos MC, Hughes TP (2020). Author Correction: Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems. Nature Sustainability, 3(9), 769-769.
Adger N, Safra De Campos R (2020). Climate change disruptions to migration systems. In Bastia T, Skeldon R (Eds.)
Routledge Handbook of Migration and Development, London: Routledge, 382-395.
Abstract:
Climate change disruptions to migration systems
Abstract.
Adger WN, Safra de Campos R, Siddiqui T, Szaboova L (2020). Commentary: Inequality, precarity and sustainable ecosystems as elements of urban resilience.
Urban Studies,
57(7), 1588-1595.
Abstract:
Commentary: Inequality, precarity and sustainable ecosystems as elements of urban resilience
The science of resilience suggests that urban systems become resilient when they promote progressive transformative change to social and physical infrastructure. But resilience is challenged by global environmental risks and by social and economic trends that create inequality and exclusion. Here we argue that distortionary inequality and precarity undermine social processes that give access to public infrastructure and ecosystems thereby undermining urban resilience. We illustrate how inequality and precarity undermine resilience with reference to social exclusion and insecurity in growing urban settlements in the Asia-Pacific region. Inequality and exposure to environmental risks represent major challenges for governance that can be best overcome through inclusion and giving voice to marginalised populations.
Abstract.
Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (2020). Delta challenges and trade-offs from the Holocene to the Anthropocene. In Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Palgrave, 1-22.
Nicholls RJ, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen S (2020). Deltas in the Anthropocene. London, Palgrave.
Mach KJ, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Kraan CM, Maystadt J, O'Loughlin J, et al (2020). Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict.
Earth's Future,
8(7).
Abstract:
Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict
AbstractThe potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate‐conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision‐making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate‐conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.
Abstract.
Lázár AN, Adams H, Adger WN, Nicholls RJ (2020). Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh.
PLoS One,
15(9).
Abstract:
Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: an application to coastal Bangladesh.
Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies-the Household Economy and Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.
Abstract.
Author URL.
Adams H, Adger WN, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Nilsen K, Gurney GG, Streatfield PK, et al (2020). Multi-dimensional well-being associated with economic dependence on ecosystem services in deltaic social-ecological systems of Bangladesh. Regional Environmental Change, 20(2), 42-42.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Hettiarachchi M, Huchery C, Lemos MC, Hughes TP (2020). Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems.
Nature Sustainability,
3(11), 947-955.
Abstract:
Political dynamics and governance of World Heritage ecosystems
Political dynamics across scales are often overlooked in the design, implementation and evaluation of environmental governance. We provide new evidence to explain how interactions between international organizations and national governments shape environmental governance and outcomes for 238 World Heritage ecosystems, on the basis of a new intervention–response–outcome typology. We analyse interactions between the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and 102 national governments responsible for implementing ecosystem protection under the World Heritage Convention between 1972 and 2019. We combine data on the reporting, deliberation and certification of individual ecosystem-level threats, with data on national governance quality, economic complexity and key stakeholder perspectives. We find that the extent of threatened ecosystems is seriously underestimated and that efforts to formally certify threatened ecosystems are often resisted by national governments. A range of responses to international intervention, including both productive and counterproductive responses, generates material impacts at the ecosystem level. Counterproductive responses occur in nations dependent on limited high-value natural resource industries, irrespective of overall level of economic development. We identify new political approaches to improve environmental governance, including how to overcome the problem of regulatory capture. Our findings inform how we can better anticipate and account for political dynamics in environmental governance.
Abstract.
Barrett S, Dasgupta A, Dasgupta P, Adger WN, Anderies J, van den Bergh J, Bledsoe C, Bongaarts J, Carpenter S, Chapin FS, et al (2020). Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
117, 6300-6307.
Abstract:
Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene
We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household’s decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243–1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people “abandoning the freedom to breed.” That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
Abstract.
Nicholls R, Adger N, Hutton SE, Hansen SE, Lazar A, Vincent K (2020). Sustainable deltas in the Anthropocene. In Nciholls R, Adger N, Hutton C, Hansen SE (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Pagrave, 247-280.
Adger WN, Crépin A-S, Folke C, Ospina D, Chapin FS, Segerson K, Seto KC, Anderies JM, Barrett S, Bennett EM, et al (2020). Urbanization, Migration, and Adaptation to Climate Change. One Earth, 3(4), 396-399.
Safra De Campos R, Codjoe S, Adger N, Mortreux C, Hazra S, Siddiqui T, Das S, Atiglo Y, Bhuiyan R, Rocky MH, et al (2020). Where People Live and Move in Deltas. In Nicholls R, Adger WN, Hutton C, Hanson S (Eds.) Deltas in the Anthropocene, London: Palgrave, 153-177.
2019
Mach KJ, Kraan CM, Adger WN, Buhaug H, Burke M, Fearon JD, Field CB, Hendrix CS, Maystadt JF, O Loughlin J, et al (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.
Nature,
571, 193-197.
Abstract:
Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
© 2019, the Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
Abstract.
Faulkner L (2019). Collective action and community resilience: specific, general and transformative capacity.
Abstract:
Collective action and community resilience: specific, general and transformative capacity
Communities are taking action to address different types of change and shape their own future to enable a desirable state. Yet a critical understanding of the relationship between collective action and community resilience is not fully elaborated. This thesis enriches community resilience research by examining attributes of community and how the attributes interact with collective action to promote three constituent components of community resilience: that is specific resilience, general resilience, and transformative capacity, defined here as ability to envisage and plan for the future.
This study undertakes research in Wadebridge, north Cornwall, UK, and Sedgefield, western Cape, South Africa. These coastal towns represent emerging complexities of change, both with a history of collective action and communities fragmented by identity and demographic divisions. Focus groups, semi-structured key informant interviews and participatory scenario planning are used to elicit different resident perspectives on community and ability to promote specific and general resilience and transformative capacity.
The results suggest four key attributes of community: resident identity, trust, interests around collective action and differential ability and power to affect change. Incomers, who are a particular type of lifestyle migrant, act as catalysts promoting collective action for specific resilience, which builds capacity for incomers to address known hazards. But there is significant difference between incomers and other resident groupings that reinforces social divisions. Collective action that enables general resilience reconfigures to bring distinct residents together to share resources and build trust, allowing more residents to positively address different shocks and disturbances and provide an entry point to negotiate the future. Residents understand transformative capacity also requires fundamentally changing social structures, power relations and identity-related roles.
The implications of the results are that incorporating the influence of lifestyle mobility into community resilience research increases explanation of the way in which communities are being reshaped and the role of individuals in promoting collective action for different constituent components of community resilience. Collective action conferring general resilience is shaped by individual capacity and networks, rather than collective capacity, with individuals interlinking responses to specific and general resilience together.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Devine-Wright P, Anderies JM, Barr S, Bousquet F, Butler C, Evans L, Marshall N, Quinn T, et al (2019). Empathy, place and identity interactions for sustainability.
Global Environmental Change,
56, 11-17.
Abstract:
Empathy, place and identity interactions for sustainability
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Sustainability science recognises the need to fully incorporate cultural and emotional dimensions of environmental change to understand how societies deal with and shape anticipated transformations, unforeseen risks and increasing uncertainties. The relationship between empathy and sustainability represents a key advance in understanding underpinning human-environment relations. We assert that lack of empathy for nature and for others limits motivations to conserve the environment and enhance sustainability. Critically, the relationship between empathy and sustainability is mediated by place and identity that constrain and shape empathy's role in pro-environmental sustainability behaviour. We review emerging evidence across disciplines and suggest a new model exploring interactions between place, identity and empathy for sustainability. There are emerging innovative methodological approaches to observe, measure and potentially stimulate empathy for sustainability.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Boyd E, Fábos A, Fransen S, Jolivet D, Neville G, Safra De Campos R, Vijge MJ (2019). Migration transforms the conditions for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(11), e440-e442.
Tebboth MGL, Conway D, Adger WN (2019). Mobility endowment and entitlements mediate resilience in rural livelihood systems.
Global Environmental Change,
54, 172-183.
Abstract:
Mobility endowment and entitlements mediate resilience in rural livelihood systems
© 2018 in economically marginal rural areas, choice in livelihood strategy such as decisions to move location mediates levels of individual and household resilience under conditions of environmental change. It is widely recognised that endowments associated with mobility and the entitlement to mobility are unevenly distributed across populations. This paper integrates these insights and conceptualises location choice as a set of mobility endowments and mobility entitlements. Through focussing on endowments and entitlements, the paper explores how choice affects the ability to be mobile and its role in mediating levels of resilience to livelihood shocks associated with changing environmental conditions. The research design involves measuring the impact of different climatic perturbations in rural locations in Anhui Province, China. Mixed methods of rural appraisal, life history interviews, and a household survey generate objective and perceived elements of individual and household responses to risks. These data are augmented by biophysical observations on the nature of the climatic perturbations. The results show that mobility endowments and mobility entitlements are important in determining the impact of mobility on resilience. The life history interview data highlight significant individual agency within the structures that impact on individual choices. Further, individuals and households who possess the ability to decide and to subsequently enact decisions about mobility, are shown to be more resilient compared to other individuals and households that lack such ability. Moreover, households practicing short-term, circular mobility are more resilient than those households that practice long-term mobility. The study confirms that, in these instances, choice and the ability to enact those choices mediates resilience and highlights the implications of location decisions but also the conditions in which those decisions are made.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Cinner JE (2019). Moving climate change beyond the tragedy of the commons. Global Environmental Change, 54, 61-63.
Marshall N, Adger WN, Benham C, Brown K, I Curnock M, Gurney GG, Marshall P, L Pert P, Thiault L (2019). Reef Grief: investigating the relationship between place meanings and place change on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
Sustainability Science,
14(3), 579-587.
Abstract:
Reef Grief: investigating the relationship between place meanings and place change on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
It is well established that ecosystems bring meaning and well-being to individuals, often articulated through attachment to place. Degradation and threats to places and ecosystems have been shown to lead to loss of well-being. Here, we suggest that the interactions between ecosystem loss and declining well-being may involve both emotional responses associated with grief, and with observable impacts on mental health. We test these ideas on so-called ecological grief by examining individual emotional response to well-documented and publicized ecological degradation: coral bleaching and mortality in the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem. The study focuses both on one off events of coral loss and the prospect of continuing decline on the self-reported well-being of residents living within the ecosystem, visitors, and those whose livelihood is dependent on the marine resource: data from face-to-face surveys of 1870 local residents, 1804 tourists, and telephone surveys of 91 fishers and 94 tourism operators. We hypothesise that the extent to which individuals experience ecological grief is dependent on the meanings or intrinsic values (such as aesthetic, scientific, or biodiversity-based values), and is moderated by their place attachment, place identity, lifestyle dependence, place-based pride, and derived well-being. Results show that around half of residents, tourists and tourist operators surveyed, and almost one quarter of fishers, report significant Reef Grief. Reef Grief is closely and positively associated with place meanings within resident and tourist populations. By contrast respondents who rated high aesthetic value of the coral ecosystem report lower levels of Reef Grief. These findings have significant implications for how individuals and populations experience ecosystem decline and loss within places that are meaningful to them. Given inevitable cumulative future impacts on ecosystems from committed climate change impacts, understanding and managing ecological grief will become increasingly important. This study seeks to lay conceptual and theoretical foundations to identify how ecological grief is manifest and related to meaningful places and the social distribution of such grief across society.
Abstract.
Morrison TH, Hughes TP, Adger WN, Brown K, Barnett J, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Huchery C, Chaigneau T, Turner R, et al (2019). Save reefs to rescue all ecosystems. Nature, 573(7774), 333-336.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Phelps J, Evans L, Cohen P, Song AM, Turner R, et al (2019). The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance.
Global Environmental Change,
57Abstract:
The black box of power in polycentric environmental governance
© 2019 the Authors Failure to address unsustainable global change is often attributed to failures in conventional environmental governance. Polycentric environmental governance—the popular alternative—involves many centres of authority interacting coherently for a common governance goal. Yet, longitudinal analysis reveals many polycentric systems are struggling to cope with the growing impacts, pace, and scope of social and environmental change. Analytic shortcomings are also beginning to appear, particularly in the treatment of power. Here we draw together diverse social science perspectives and research into a variety of cases to show how different types of power shape rule setting, issue construction, and policy implementation in polycentric governance. We delineate an important and emerging research agenda for polycentric environmental governance, integrating diverse types of power into analytical and practical models.
Abstract.
Conway D, Nicholls RJ, Brown S, Tebboth MGL, Adger WN, Ahmad B, Biemans H, Crick F, Lutz AF, De Campos RS, et al (2019). The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions.
Nature Climate Change,
9(7), 503-511.
Abstract:
The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions
© 2019, Springer Nature Limited. Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.
Abstract.
Folke C, Österblom H, Jouffray JB, Lambin EF, Adger WN, Scheffer M, Crona BI, Nyström M, Levin SA, Carpenter SR, et al (2019). Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship.
Nature Ecology and Evolution,
3(10), 1396-1403.
Abstract:
Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship
Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.
Abstract.
2018
Adger WN, Brown I, Surminski S (2018). Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences,
376(2121), 20180106-20180106.
Abstract:
Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy
© 2018 the Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.
Abstract.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Lázár AN, Neil Adger W, Allan A, Whitehead PG, Wolf J, Rahman MM, Salehin M, Hanson SE, et al (2018). An integrated approach providing scientific and policy-relevant insights for South-West Bangladesh. In (Ed)
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, 49-69.
Abstract:
An integrated approach providing scientific and policy-relevant insights for South-West Bangladesh
Abstract.
Cinner JE, Adger WN, Allison EH, Barnes ML, Brown K, Cohen PJ, Gelcich S, Hicks CC, Hughes TP, Lau J, et al (2018). Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities.
Nature Climate Change,
8, 117-123.
Abstract:
Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities
© 2018 the Author(s) to minimize the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing, governments, development agencies, and civil society organizations have made substantial investments in improving people’s capacity to adapt to change. Yet to date, these investments have tended to focus on a very narrow understanding of adaptive capacity. Here, we propose an approach to build adaptive capacity across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; learning to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not.
Abstract.
Adams H, Neil Adger W, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Chan M, Lázár AN, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Streatfield PK, et al (2018). Characterising associations between poverty and ecosystem services. In (Ed)
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, 425-444.
Abstract:
Characterising associations between poverty and ecosystem services
Abstract.
Adams H, Adger N, Ahmed M, Huq H, Rahman R, Salehin M (2018). Defining social-ecological systems in south-west Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 405-423.
Adams H, Adger N, Nicholls R (2018). Ecosystem Services Linked to Livelihoods and Well-Being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 29-47.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Adger WN, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018).
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis. London, Palgrave Macmillan.
Abstract:
Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis
Abstract.
Adger N, Adams H, Kay S, Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018). Ecosystem services, well-being and deltas: Current knowledge and understanding. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 3-27.
Szabo S, Adger WN, Matthews Z (2018). Home is where the money goes: migration-related urban-rural integration in delta regions.
Migration and Development,
7(2), 163-179.
Abstract:
Home is where the money goes: migration-related urban-rural integration in delta regions
The dominant movement of people in the mega-deltas of Asia is from agriculture-dominated rural areas to urban settlements, driven by growing opportunities, but resulting in new human development challenges. In this context, the present study aims to investigate whether remittance income leads to enhanced multiple dimensions of well-being in sending areas in tropical deltas, by focusing on two delta regions with significant out-migration rates, Bangladeshi Ganges Brahmaputra and the Vietnamese Mekong deltas. To this end, the paper offers an original conceptual framework, drawing on existing migration theories and the aspirations and capabilities theoretical framework (Haas et al. 2011). Data from large scale sample household surveys (2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey and 2012 Vietnam Living Standards Survey) are analysed through multilevel regression modelling to examine well-being outcomes in sending areas and links to remittance income. The results show that the temporal extent of internal and international migration is positively associated with remittances in both delta regions. The results also suggest that in both delta regions remittances have a significant positive effect on household well-being in the source rural areas, including overall income, investments in health, food security and access to sanitation. The study concludes that landscapes of urban and rural deltas are increasingly economically integrated which suggests greater resilience even for environmentally-at-risk tropical deltas.
Abstract.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Adger N, Hanson SE, Rahman MM, Salehin M (2018). Integrative analysis for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salehin M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 71-90.
Adger N, Fortnam M (2018). Interactions of migration and population dynamics with ecosystem services. In Schreckenber K, Mace GM, Poudyal M (Eds.)
Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation: Trade-offs and Governance, London: Routledge, 77-93.
Abstract:
Interactions of migration and population dynamics with ecosystem services
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2018). Mobile worlds: Choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
43, 245-265.
Abstract:
Mobile worlds: Choice at the intersection of demographic and environmental change
© 2018 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved. Research on environmental change has often focused on changes in population as a significant driver of unsustainability and environmental degradation. Demographic pessimism and limited engagement with demographic realities underpin many arguments concerning limits to growth, environmental refugees, and environment-related conflicts. Re-engagement between demographic and environmental sciences has led to greater understanding of the interactions between the size, composition, and distribution of populations and exposure to environmental risks and contributions to environmental burdens. We review the results of this renewed and far more nuanced research frontier, focusing in particular on the way demographic trends affect exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation to environmental change. New research has explained how migration systems interact with environmental challenges in individual decisions and in globally aggregate flows. Here we integrate analysis on demographic and environmental risks that often share a root cause in limited social freedoms and opportunities. We argue for a capabilities approach to promoting sustainable solutions for a more mobile world.
Abstract.
Adger N, Safra De Campos R, Mortreux C (2018). Mobility, displacement and migration and their interactions with vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risks. In McLeman R, Gemenne F (Eds.) Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration, London: Routledge, 29-41.
Butler C, Walker-Springett K, Adger WN (2018). Narratives of recovery after floods: Mental health, institutions, and intervention.
Social Science and Medicine,
216, 67-73.
Abstract:
Narratives of recovery after floods: Mental health, institutions, and intervention
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd There is increasing evidence that flood events affect the mental health of those experiencing them, with recognition that the period of recovery after the event is particularly important to outcomes. Previous research on flooding has argued that there is a recovery gap that occurs during the long process of recovery at the point when the support provision from public authorities and agencies diminishes, and less well-defined interactions with private actors, such as insurers, begin. This concept highlights the importance of the support and intervention from authorities and other institutions for recovery processes. To date, little research has focused specifically on these relationships and their consequences for people's mental wellbeing through recovery. This study examines the processes of individuals' recovery from flood events, focusing on the role of interaction with agencies in the trajectories of mental health journeys. The analysis applies a narrative approach to in-depth repeated interviews carried out over a fifteen-month period with nine individuals whose homes were inundated by floods in 2013/14 in Somerset, UK. The results suggest strong evidence for institutional support having an important role in how individuals experience their post-flood mental health recovery journeys. The data reveal strategies to maintain psychological and emotional resilience at distinct periods during recovery, and show that both institutional actions and the perceived absence of support in specific circumstances affect the mental health burden of flood events.
Abstract.
Mortreux C, Safra de Campos R, Adger WN, Ghosh T, Das S, Adams H, Hazra S (2018). Political economy of planned relocation: a model of action and inaction in government responses.
Global Environmental Change,
50, 123-132.
Abstract:
Political economy of planned relocation: a model of action and inaction in government responses
© 2018 the Authors Planned relocation has been shown to have significant impacts on the livelihoods and wellbeing of people and communities, whether the resettlement process is inclusive or coercive. For states, planned relocation represents risks to those communities but also to government investments and political legitimacy. Evaluations of relocations commonly focus on the risks and benefits of government interventions while overlooking the consequences of not intervening. Here we develop a conceptual framework to examine the factors that influence government decision-making about whether or not to undertake planned relocation of populations in the context of environmental change. The study examines planned relocation decisions and non-decisions by government agencies in West Bengal in India for communities seeking relocation due to coastal flooding. It focuses on three localities facing river erosion losing significant land areas in small islands and communities where populations recognize the need for public intervention, but where there has been a diversity of responses from the state authorities. Data are derived from interviews with key respondents involved in planning and implementing relocation and with residents affected by those government decisions (n = 26). These data show that government action is explained by a combination of risk aversion within political systems to avoid perceived negative consequences, and a lack of government accountability. The empirical cases demonstrate the uneven application of action and inaction and the consequent uneven distribution of potential outcomes on populations. The study suggests that while there may be a growing demand for planned relocation in places affected by environmental change, its implementation is likely to be uneven, with profound socioeconomic implications for those living in such localities.
Abstract.
Szabo S, Ahmad S, Adger WN (2018). Population dynamics in the south-west of Bangladesh. In Nicholls R, Hutton C, Adger N, Hansen SE, Rahman M, Salesian M (Eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis, London: Palgrave, 349-365.
Adger WN, Hughes TP, Folke C, Carpenter SR, Rockström J (2018). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. In (Ed) Planning for Climate Change: a Reader in Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Design for Resilient Cities, 151-159.
Adger N, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C (2018). The social contract for climate risks: private and public responses. In Scavenius T, Rayner S (Eds.)
Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Response a New Approach to Climate Politics, London: Routledge, 76-89.
Abstract:
The social contract for climate risks: private and public responses
Abstract.
Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG, Conway D, Joshi M, Frame D (2018). Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences,
376(2121).
Abstract:
Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.
Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.
Abstract.
2017
Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG (2017). Climate risks across borders and scales. Nature Climate Change, 7(9), 621-623.
Marshall N, Adger N, Attwood S, Brown K, Crissman C, Cvitanovic C, De Young C, Gooch M, James C, Jessen S, et al (2017). Empirically derived guidance for social scientists to influence environmental policy.
PLoS One,
12(3), e0171950-e0171950.
Abstract:
Empirically derived guidance for social scientists to influence environmental policy.
Failure to stem trends of ecological disruption and associated loss of ecosystem services worldwide is partly due to the inadequate integration of the human dimension into environmental decision-making. Decision-makers need knowledge of the human dimension of resource systems and of the social consequences of decision-making if environmental management is to be effective and adaptive. Social scientists have a central role to play, but little guidance exists to help them influence decision-making processes. We distil 348 years of cumulative experience shared by 31 environmental experts across three continents into advice for social scientists seeking to increase their influence in the environmental policy arena. Results focus on the importance of process, engagement, empathy and acumen and reveal the importance of understanding and actively participating in policy processes through co-producing knowledge and building trust. The insights gained during this research might empower a science-driven cultural change in science-policy relations for the routine integration of the human dimension in environmental decision making; ultimately for an improved outlook for earth's ecosystems and the billions of people that depend on them.
Abstract.
Morrison TH, Adger WN, Brown K, Lemos MC, Huitema D, Hughes TP (2017). Mitigation and adaptation in polycentric systems: sources of power in the pursuit of collective goals. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8, e479-e479.
Adger WN, Butler C, Walker-Springett K (2017). Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change.
Environmental Politics,
26, 371-390.
Abstract:
Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change
Moral foundations theory argues that moral reasoning is widely observed and fundamental to the legitimacy of relevant governance and policy interventions. A new analytical framework to examine and test how moral reasoning underpins and legitimizes governance and practice on adaptation to climate change risks is proposed. It develops a typology of eight categories of vulnerability-based and system-based moral reasoning that pertain to the dilemmas around adaptation and examines the prevalence of these moral categories in public discourse about specific adaptation issues. The framework is tested using data on climate change impact, adaptation, and societal responsibility, drawn from 14 focus groups comprising 148 participants across the UK. Participants consistently use moral reasoning to explain their views on climate adaptation; these include both vulnerability-based and system-based framings. These findings explain public responses to adaptation options and governance, and have implications for the direction of adaptation policy, including understanding which types of reasoning support politically legitimate interventions.
Abstract.
Gurney GG, Blythe J, Adams H, Adger WN, Curnock M, Faulkner L, James T, Marshall NA (2017). Redefining community based on place attachment in a connected world.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
114(38), 10077-10082.
Abstract:
Redefining community based on place attachment in a connected world
Significance
. Effective environmental policy requires public participation in management, typically achieved through engaging community defined by residential location or resource use. However, current social and environmental change, particularly increasing connectedness, demands new approaches to community. We draw on place attachment theory to redefine community in the context of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Using a large dataset on place attachment, our analysis of local, national, and international stakeholders identified four communities differing in their attachment to the reef and spanning location and use communities. Our results suggest that place attachment can bridge geographic and social boundaries, and communities of attachment could thus be leveraged to foster transnational stewardship, which is crucial to addressing modern sustainability challenges in our globalized world.
Abstract.
Morris GP, Reis S, Beck SA, Fleming LE, Adger WN, Benton TG, Depledge MH (2017). Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.
Environmental Health,
16(Suppl 1), 116-116.
Abstract:
Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.
The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.
Abstract.
Waters J, Adger WN (2017). Spatial, network and temporal dimensions of the determinants of adaptive capacity in poor urban areas.
Global Environmental Change,
46, 42-49.
Abstract:
Spatial, network and temporal dimensions of the determinants of adaptive capacity in poor urban areas
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Slums and informal settlements are home to rapidly growing populations in urban areas globally and face a range of significant shocks and stresses. The sustainability of these places is critically intertwined with the resilience of their populations. The nature of the capacity for populations to adapt to shocks, as an element of resilience, is related to the evolving knowledge and networks of those populations and is suggested here to have significant spatial and temporal variation. We analyse the key determinants of adaptive capacity and hypothesise that they are related to spatial dimensions of urban form, temporal dimensions of migration, place attachment, and to social differentiation. We investigate these dynamics of adaptive capacity across a transect of urbanisation from inner city to periphery in Kampala, Uganda using diverse methods including a sample survey of residents (n = 720) and ego-network analysis. Results show that the key determinants of individual-level adaptive capacity are attachment to place, social networks, and duration of residence. There are significant differences in adaptive capacity between slum areas, as well as strong social group and temporal dimensions. These findings suggest the importance of measuring adaptive capacities at appropriate spatial and temporal scales in order to identify specific interventions for slums that build the resilience of their populations.
Abstract.
Watts N, Adger WN, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Bai Y, Byass P, Campbell-Lendrum D, Colbourn T, Cox P, Davies M, Depledge M, et al (2017). The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change. The Lancet, 389(10074), 1151-1164.
Walker-Springett K, Butler C, Adger WN (2017). Wellbeing in the aftermath of floods.
Health and Place,
43, 66-74.
Abstract:
Wellbeing in the aftermath of floods
The interactions between flood events, their aftermath, and recovery leading to health and wellbeing outcomes for individuals are complex, and the pathways and mechanisms through which wellbeing is affected are often hidden and remain under-researched. This study analyses the diverse processes that explain changes in wellbeing for those experiencing flooding. It identifies key pathways to wellbeing outcomes that concern perceptions of lack of agency, dislocation from home, and disrupted futures inducing negative impacts, with offsetting positive effects through community networks and interactions. The mixed method study is based on data from repeated qualitative semi-structured interviews (n=60) and a structured survey (n=1000) with individuals that experienced flooding directly during winter 2013/14 in two UK regions. The results show for the first time the diversity and intersection of pathways to wellbeing outcomes in the aftermath of floods. The findings suggest that enhanced public health planning and interventions could focus on the precise practices and mechanisms that intersect to produce anxiety, stress, and their amelioration at individual and community levels.
Abstract.
2016
Barnett J, Tschakert P, Head L, Adger WN (2016). A science of loss. Nature Climate Change, 6(11), 976-978.
Adams H, Adger WN, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Begum D, Lázár AN, Matthews Z, Rahman MM, Streatfield PK (2016). Data Descriptor: Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh.
Scientific Data,
3Abstract:
Data Descriptor: Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh
Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women's empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries.
Abstract.
Adger N (2016). Don't gag science. New Scientist, 229(3065), 26-27.
Cinnamon J, Jones SK, Adger WN (2016). Evidence and future potential of mobile phone data for disease disaster management.
Geoforum,
75, 253-264.
Abstract:
Evidence and future potential of mobile phone data for disease disaster management
Global health threats such as the recent Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks require rapid and robust responses to prevent, reduce and recover from disease dispersion. As part of broader big data and digital humanitarianism discourses, there is an emerging interest in data produced through mobile phone communications for enhancing the data environment in such circumstances. This paper assembles user perspectives and critically examines existing evidence and future potential of mobile phone data derived from call detail records (CDRs) and two-way short message service (SMS) platforms, for managing and responding to humanitarian disasters caused by communicable disease outbreaks. We undertake a scoping review of relevant literature and in-depth interviews with key informants to ascertain the: (i) information that can be gathered from CDRs or SMS data; (ii) phase(s) in the disease disaster management cycle when mobile data may be useful; (iii) value added over conventional approaches to data collection and transfer; (iv) barriers and enablers to use of mobile data in disaster contexts; and (v) the social and ethical challenges. Based on this evidence we develop a typology of mobile phone data sources, types, and end-uses, and a decision-tree for mobile data use, designed to enable effective use of mobile data for disease disaster management. We show that mobile data holds great potential for improving the quality, quantity and timing of selected information required for disaster management, but that testing and evaluation of the benefits, constraints and limitations of mobile data use in a wider range of mobile-user and disaster contexts is needed to fully understand its utility, validity, and limitations.
Abstract.
Nicholls RJ, Hutton CW, Lázár AN, Allan A, Adger WN, Adams H, Wolf J, Rahman M, Salehin M (2016). Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 183, 370-381.
Adger WN (2016). Place, well-being, and fairness shape priorities for adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 38, A1-A3.
Adger WN, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C (2016). Sharing the Pain: Perceptions of Fairness Affect Private and Public Response to Hazards.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers,
106(5), 1079-1096.
Abstract:
Sharing the Pain: Perceptions of Fairness Affect Private and Public Response to Hazards
© 2016 W. N. Adger, T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, and C. Murphy. Published with license by Taylor & Francis © W. N. Adger, T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, and C. Murphy.Structural causes of vulnerability to hazards are well established in geographical research. But what facilitates individual adaptive behavior? How does the performance of government intervention affect such behavior? Drawing on political economy, environmental psychology, and climate justice perspectives, we explore how perceived fairness of responses to weather-related extreme events affects the public and private distribution of responsibility and action. We focus on flood risk and examine how perceptions of fairness of response by residents in flood-affected areas, along with their prior experience of flooding and perceptions of scope of government responsibility and capacity, affect willingness to take individual adaptive action. We use data from surveys of 356 households affected by a flood event in November 2009 in Cumbria, UK, and Galway, Ireland, to compare perceptions of fairness of responses and private intentions across two political jurisdictions. We find that aspects of fairness are related to willingness to take adaptive action but vary with context, experience, and knowledge of flooding. In Cumbria, where there is greater experience of flooding, willingness to act correlates with procedural justice, risk knowledge, and capacity. Capacity for flood management in Galway is firmly associated with state agencies, whereas in Cumbria it is perceived to result from responsibilities of public and private action. These findings highlight the central role of government action and its perceived fairness in structuring private responses to environmental risks and point to the crucial role of climate justice perspectives in navigating adaptation.
Abstract.
Butler C, Walker-Springett K, Adger WN, Evans L, O'Neill S (2016). Social and Political Dynamics of Flood Risk, Recovery and Response.A Report of the Findings of the Winter Floods Project. Exeter, University of Exeter.
Nyborg K, Anderies JM, Dannenberg A, Lindahl T, Schill C, Schlüter M, Adger WN, Arrow KJ, Barrett S, Carpenter S, et al (2016). Social norms as solutions.
Science,
354(6308), 42-43.
Abstract:
Social norms as solutions
Policies may influence large-scale behavioral tipping
Abstract.
Szabo S, Hossain MS, Adger WN, Matthews Z, Ahmed S, Lázár AN, Ahmad S (2016). Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh.
Sustainability Science,
11(3), 411-421.
Abstract:
Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh
As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.
Abstract.
Evans LS, Hicks CC, Adger WN, Barnett J, Perry AL, Fidelman P, Tobin R (2016). Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.
PloS one,
11(3), e0150575-e0150575.
Abstract:
Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.
Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.
Abstract.
Huitema D, Adger WN, Berkhout F, Massey E, Mazmanian D, Munaretto S, Plummer R, Termeer CCJAM (2016). The governance of adaptation: Choices, reasons, and effects. Introduction to the special feature.
Ecology and Society,
21(3).
Abstract:
The governance of adaptation: Choices, reasons, and effects. Introduction to the special feature
© 2016 by the author(s).The governance of climate adaptation involves the collective efforts of multiple societal actors to address problems, or to reap the benefits, associated with impacts of climate change. Governing involves the creation of institutions, rules and organizations, and the selection of normative principles to guide problem solution and institution building. We argue that actors involved in governing climate change adaptation, as climate change governance regimes evolve, inevitably must engage in making choices, for instance on problem definitions, jurisdictional levels, on modes of governance and policy instruments, and on the timing of interventions. Yet little is known about how and why these choices are made in practice, and how such choices affect the outcomes of our efforts to govern adaptation. In this introduction we review the current state of evidence and the specific contribution of the articles published in this Special Feature, which are aimed at bringing greater clarity in these matters, and thereby informing both governance theory and practice. Collectively, the contributing papers suggest that the way issues are defined has important consequences for the support for governance interventions, and their effectiveness. The articles suggest that currently the emphasis in adaptation governance is on the local and regional levels, while underscoring the benefits of interventions and governance at higher jurisdictional levels in terms of visioning and scaling-up effective approaches. The articles suggest that there is a central role of government agencies in leading governance interventions to address spillover effects, to provide public goods, and to promote the long-term perspectives for planning. They highlight the issue of justice in the governance of adaptation showing how governance measures have wide distributional consequences, including the potential to amplify existing inequalities, access to resources, or generating new injustices through distribution of risks. For several of these findings, future research directions are suggested.
Abstract.
Challinor A, Adger N, Di Mauro M, Baylis M, Benton T, Conway D, Depledge D, Geddes A, McCorriston S, Stringer L, et al (2016). UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report: Chapter 7, International Dimensions. London, Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.
2015
Adger WN (2015). Climate change, human well-being and insecurity. In Matthew R (Ed) Environmental Security. Volume Four: the Security Implications of Climate Change, London: Sage.
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas DSG (2015). Focus on environmental risks and migration: Causes and consequences.
Environmental Research Letters,
10(6).
Abstract:
Focus on environmental risks and migration: Causes and consequences
© 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd. Environmental change poses risks to societies, including disrupting social and economic systems such as migration. At the same time, migration is an effective adaptation to environmental and other risks. We review novel science on interactions between migration, environmental risks and climate change. We highlight emergent findings, including how dominant flows of rural to urban migration mean that populations are exposed to new risks within destination areas and the requirement for urban sustainability. We highlight the issue of lack of mobility as a major issue limiting the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy and leading to potentially trapped populations. The paper presents scenarios of future migration that show both displacement and trapped populations over the incoming decades. Papers in the special issue bring new insights from demography, human geography, political science and environmental science to this emerging field.
Abstract.
Watts N, Neil Adger W, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, et al (2015). Health and climate change - Political strategies for the protection of public health. Umweltmedizin in Forschung und Praxis, 20(4), 167-169.
Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, et al (2015). Health and climate change: Policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet, 386(10006), 1861-1914.
Walker BJA, Neil Adger W, Russel D (2015). Institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in decentralised governance structures: Transport planning in England.
Urban Studies,
52(12), 2250-2266.
Abstract:
Institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in decentralised governance structures: Transport planning in England
Climate change poses governance challenges at diverse scales and across the dimensions of risk and responsibility. Local governments are central to the delivery of action on both decarbonisation and adapting to the risks of climate change. Yet there are likely to be significant differences across local governments in terms of their capacity to act on climate change. This research documents and explains differences in the capacity to act within response spaces to risks to transport infrastructure and systems. We examine 80 Transport Plans across local governments in England, specifically their efforts to incorporate climate change adaptation. Data are generated from content analysis of the 80 documents and key informant interviews in a sample of 15% of authorities. The results show significant disparities across authorities. We explain differential outcomes as dependent on internal coordination, local prioritisation processes and political opposition. The results highlight that there are significant governance barriers associated with differential response capacity in the face of climate change risks.
Abstract.
Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Adger N (2015). Place attachment, identity and adaptation. In O'Brien K, Selboe E (Eds.) The Adaptive Challenge of Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 160-170.
Adger WN (2015). The right to keep cold. In Hulme M (Ed) Climates and Cultures. Volume 5: Cultural Readings of Climate, London: Sage.
2014
Barnett J, Adger WN (2014). "Climate dangers and atoll countries": Climate change (2003). In (Ed) Cities of the Global South Reader, 221-226.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2014). Chapter 13: Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In (Ed) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar Publishing, 206-216.
Adger WN, Hodbod J (2014). Chapter 6: Ecological and social resilience. In (Ed) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Edward Elgar Publishing, 91-102.
Gemenne F, Barnett J, Adger WN, Dabelko GD (2014). Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda.
Climatic Change,
123(1), 1-9.
Abstract:
Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda
There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Hodbod J (2014). Ecological and social resilience. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E, Agrawala M (Eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Cheltenham: Elgar, 91-101.
Adger WN (2014). Environmental and ecological economics. In (Ed) Environmental Science for Environmental Management, 93-118.
Szabo S, Hossain MS, Matthews Z, Lázár AN, Ahmed S, Adger N, Ahmad S (2014). Food insecurity in the rural Ganges Brahmaputra delta: the impact of soil salinity and households' socio-economic characteristics. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference: Integrative Risk Management - the Role of Science, Technology and Practice.
Abstract:
Food insecurity in the rural Ganges Brahmaputra delta: the impact of soil salinity and households' socio-economic characteristics
Abstract.
Adger WN, Pulhin JM, Barnett J, Dabelko GD, Hovelsrud GK, Levy M, Oswald Spring U, Vogel CH, Adams H, Hodbod J, et al (eds)(2014). Human Security. IPCC, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 36 pages.
Hodbod J, Adger WN (2014). Integrating social-ecological dynamics and resilience into energy systems research.
Energy Research and Social Science,
1, 226-231.
Abstract:
Integrating social-ecological dynamics and resilience into energy systems research
The ecological impact of energy production and consumption is often relegated in analytical accounts of the evolution of energy systems, where production and consumption patterns are analysed as the interaction of social, economic and technological factors. Ecological and social-ecological dynamics are, we argue, critical in the context of imperatives for access to modern energy services that are inadequate for significant sections of the world's population. The ecological impacts of energy use are often analysed as a set of externalities, many of which are uncertain or unquantifiable, particularly if they stem from earth system change such as anthropogenic climate change. Here we outline the benefits from analysing energy systems as social-ecological systems. We review the extensive literature from ecology and resilience theories, and compare the analytical domains, major findings and emphasis of social-ecological systems with socio-technical transition research. We illustrate these differences with the example of the multi-scale impacts of biofuel expansion. We show that social-ecological systems research combines analysis of interactions with ecological systems and power relations between actors in energy systems, and has the potential to do so across production, distribution and consumption domains whilst illustrating the dynamics of such energy systems, identifying potential trade-offs and regime shifts. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Adger WN, O'Riordan T (2014). Population, adaptation and resilience. In (Ed) Environmental Science for Environmental Management, 149-170.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2014). Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E, Agrawala M (Eds.) Handbook of Sustainable Development, Cheltenham: Elgar, 206-216.
2013
Milman A, Bunclark L, Conway D, Adger WN (2013). Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins.
Climatic Change,
121(4), 755-770.
Abstract:
Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins
Responses to climate change in transboundary river basins are believed to depend on national and sub-national capacities as well as the ability of co-riparian nations to communicate, coordinate, and cooperate across their international boundaries. We develop the first framework for assessing transboundary adaptive capacity. The framework considers six dimensions of transboundary river basins that influence planning and implementation of adaptation measures and represents those dimensions using twelve measurable indicators. These indicators are used to assess transboundary adaptive capacity of 42 basins in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Sahel. We then conduct a cluster analysis of those basins to delineate a typology that includes six categories of basins: High Capacity, Mediated Cooperation, Good Neighbour, Dependent Instability, Self-Sufficient, and Low Capacity. We find large variation in adaptive capacity across the study area; basins in Western Europe generally have higher capacities to address the potential hazards of climate change. Our basin typology points to how climate change adaptation policy interventions would be best targeted across the different categories of basins. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Abstract.
Barnett J, Mortreux C, Adger WN (2013). Barriers and limits to adaptation: cautionary notes. In Boulter S, Palutikof J, Karoly DJ, Guitart D (Eds.) Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 223-235.
Adams H, Adger WN (2013). Changing places: migration and adaptation to climate change. In Sygna L, O'Brien K, Wolf J (Eds.) The Changing Environment for Human Security: Transformative Approaches to Research, Policy, and Action, London: Routledge-Earthscan, 413-423.
Adger WN, Quinn T, Lorenzoni I, Murphy C, Sweeney J (2013). Changing social contracts in climate change adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3, 330-333.
Adger N, Barnett J, Dabelko G (2013). Climate and war: a call for more research. Nature, 498(7453).
Adger WN, Barnett J, Brown K, O'Brien K, Marshall N (2013). Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3(2), 112-117.
Adger WN (2013). Emerging dimensions of fair process for adaptation decision-making. In Palutikof J, Boulter SL, Ash AJ, Smith MS, Parry M, Waschka M, Guitart D (Eds.)
Climate Adaptation Futures, Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 69-74.
Abstract:
Emerging dimensions of fair process for adaptation decision-making
Abstract.
Jordan A, Rayner T, Schroeder H, Adger N, Anderson K, Bows A, Quéré CL, Joshi M, Mander S, Vaughan N, et al (2013). Going beyond two degrees? the risks and opportunities of alternative options.
Climate Policy,
13(6), 751-769.
Abstract:
Going beyond two degrees? the risks and opportunities of alternative options
Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action. © 2013 the Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.
Abstract.
Goulden MC, Adger WN, Allison EH, Conway D (2013). Limits to Resilience from Livelihood Diversification and Social Capital in Lake Social-Ecological Systems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(4), 906-924.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell, N. W. (2013). Migration and extreme environmental events: new agendas for global change research. Environmental Science and Policy, 27 (supplement), s1-s3.
Adger WN, Adams H (2013). Migration as an adaptation strategy to environmental change. In (Ed) World Social Science Report 2013. Changing Global Environments: the Social Challenge, Paris: International Social Science Council, 261-264.
Black R, Arnell NW, Adger WN, Thomas D, Geddes A (2013). Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environmental Science and Policy, 27 (supplement), s32-s43.
Adams H, Adger WN (2013). The contribution of ecosystem services to place utility as a determinant of migration decision-making. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1).
Adams H, Adger WN, Huq H, Rahman R, Salehin M (2013). Transformations in land use in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh: Resilience and reversibility under environmental change. In O'Brien KL, Sygna L (Eds.) Proceedings of Transformation in a Changing Climate International Conference, Oslo: University of Oslo, 160-168.
2012
Adger WN (2012). Climate change and migration: security and borders in a warming world: Book review. International Affairs, 88(3), 642-643.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012). Environment, society and precipitous change. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 3-18.
Abstract:
Environment, society and precipitous change
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012).
Living with environmental change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in vietnam.Abstract:
Living with environmental change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in vietnam
Abstract.
Kelly PM, Lien TV, Hien HM, Ninh NH, Adger WN (2012). Managing environmental change in vietnam. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 35-58.
Abstract:
Managing environmental change in vietnam
Abstract.
Burton I, Dube OP, Campbell-Lendrum D, Davis I, Klein RJT, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Sanghi A, Toth F, Pereira JJ, Sygna L, et al (2012). Managing the risks: International level and integration across scales. In (Ed)
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 393-436.
Abstract:
Managing the risks: International level and integration across scales
Abstract.
Geddes A, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Thomas DSG (2012). Migration, environmental change, and the 'challenges of governance'. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30(6), 951-967.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH, Thanh NC (2012). Property rights, institutions and resource management: Coastal resources under doi moi. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 79-92.
Abstract:
Property rights, institutions and resource management: Coastal resources under doi moi
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2012). Prospects for sustainable development. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 263-270.
Abstract:
Prospects for sustainable development
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM (2012). Social vulnerability and resilience. In (Ed)
Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, 19-34.
Abstract:
Social vulnerability and resilience
Abstract.
Geddes A, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Black R, Thomas DSG (2012). The implications for governance of migration linked to environmental change: Key findings and new research directions. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30(6), 1078-1082.
Marshall NA, Park SE, Adger WN, Brown K, Howden SM (2012). Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity.
Environmental Research Letters,
7(3).
Abstract:
Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity
Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for those who depend on them. Resource-dependent industries and communities need the capacity to adapt to a range of climate risks if they are to remain viable. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure will be required. Transformations represent a switch to a distinct new system where a different suite of factors become important in the design and implementation of response strategies. There is a critical gap in knowledge on understanding transformational capacity and its influences. On the basis of current knowledge on adaptive capacity we propose four foundations for measuring transformational capacity: (1)how risks and uncertainty are managed, (2)the extent of skills in planning, learning and reorganizing, (3)the level of financial and psychological flexibility to undertake change and (4)the willingness to undertake change. We test the influence of place attachment and occupational identity on transformational capacity using the Australian peanut industry, which is presently assessing significant structural change in response to predicted climatic changes. Survey data from 88% of peanut farmers in Queensland show a strong negative correlation between transformational capacity and both place attachment and occupational attachment, suggesting that whilst these factors may be important positive influences on the capacity to adapt to incremental change, they act as barriers to transformational change. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Abstract.
2011
Quinn T, Adger WN (2011). Climate change when you are getting on in life. Environment and Planning A, 43(10), 2257-2260.
Steneck RS, Hughes TP, Cinner JE, Adger WN, Arnold SN, Berkes F, Boudreau SA, Brown K, Folke C, Gunderson L, et al (2011). Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery.
Conservation Biology,
25(5), 904-912.
Abstract:
Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery
Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation-corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long-term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social-ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Nicholson-Cole S (2011). Ethical dimensions of adapting to climate change imposed risks. In Arnold DG (Ed)
The Ethics of Global Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 255-271.
Abstract:
Ethical dimensions of adapting to climate change imposed risks
Abstract.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities. London, Government Office of Science.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). Migration and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21(SUPPL. 1).
Adger WN, Brown K, Waters JJ (2011). Resilience. In Dryzek JS, Norgaard RB, Schlosberg D (Eds.)
The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 696-710.
Abstract:
Resilience
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Nelson DR, Berkes F, Eakin H, Folke C, Galvin K, Gunderson L, Goulden M, O'Brien K, et al (2011). Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change.
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,
2(5), 757-766.
Abstract:
Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change
This article examines whether some response strategies to climate variability and change have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of social-ecological systems. We define the parameters of a resilience approach, suggesting that resilience is characterized by the ability to absorb perturbations without changing overall system function, the ability to adapt within the resources of the system itself, and the ability to learn, innovate, and change. We evaluate nine current regional climate change policy responses and examine governance, sensitivity to feedbacks, and problem framing to evaluate impacts on characteristics of a resilient system. We find that some responses, such as the increase in harvest rates to deal with pine beetle infestations in Canada and expansion of biofuels globally, have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of resource systems. Other responses, such as decentralized water planning in Brazil and tropical storm disaster management in Caribbean islands, have the potential to increase long-term resilience. We argue that there are multiple sources of resilience in most systems and hence policy should identify such sources and strengthen capacities to adapt and learn. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Abstract.
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration.
Global Environmental Change,
21(SUPPL. 1).
Abstract:
The effect of environmental change on human migration
The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Barnett J, Chapin III FS, Ellemor H (2011). This Must be the Place: Underrepresentation of Identity and Meaning in Climate Change Decision-Making.
Global Environmental Politics,
11(2), 1-25.
Author URL.
2010
Wreford A, Adger WN (2010). Adaptation in agriculture: Historic effects of heat waves and droughts on UK agriculture. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 8(4), 278-289.
Adger WN (2010). Addressing barriers and social challenges of climate change adaptation. In Kasperson RE, Stern PC (Eds.)
Facilitating Climate Change Responses: Report on Knowledge from the Social and Behavioural Sciences, Washington DC: National Academy Press, 79-84.
Abstract:
Addressing barriers and social challenges of climate change adaptation
Abstract.
Wreford A, Moran D, Adger N (2010).
Climate change and agriculture: Im pacts, adaptati on and mitigation.Abstract:
Climate change and agriculture: Im pacts, adaptati on and mitigation
Abstract.
Adger WN (2010). Climate change, human well-being and insecurity.
New Political Economy,
15(2), 275-292.
Abstract:
Climate change, human well-being and insecurity
Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2010). Environmental change, human security and violent conflict. In Matthew RA, Barnett J, McDonald B, O'Brien K (Eds.)
Global environmental change and human security: Understanding Environmental Threats to Wellbeing and Livelihoods, Cambridge: MIT Press, 119-136.
Abstract:
Environmental change, human security and violent conflict
Abstract.
Osbahr H, Twyman C, Adger WN, Thomas DSG (2010). Evaluating Successful Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Variability and change in Southern Africa. Ecology and Society, 15(2).
Adger WN, Nelson D (2010). Fair decision making in a new climate of risk. In Clair ALS, Kristoffersen B, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Climate Change, Ethics and Human Security, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 83-94.
Abstract:
Fair decision making in a new climate of risk
Abstract.
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I (2010). Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK.
Environment and Planning A,
42(11), 2721-2734.
Abstract:
Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK
Heat waves and cold spells pose ongoing seasonal risks to the health and well-being of vulnerable individuals. Current attempts to address these risks in the UK are implemented through fuel-poverty strategies and heat-wave planning. This paper examines evidence from the UK on whether heat waves and cold spells are addressed differently by public policy in the UK given that risks are mediated by similar perceptions that shape behavioural responses by vulnerable individuals. It is based on a review of UK policies and on a qualitative interview study of risk perceptions of elderly people as a primary identified vulnerable group to these weather extremes. The study involved in-depth repeat interviews with fifteen elderly respondents in summer 2007 and winter 2008 in Norwich (UK). Results suggest that neither heat risks nor cold risks are perceived as personal risks and therefore planned preventive measures by individuals are largely elusive. Cold risk policy reduces vulnerability; policy related to heat relies on early warning and public information programmes and does not reduce underlying vulnerability. Both types of policies largely ignore public perceptions of risks and could benefit from a more cohesive approach, supporting similar measures to reduce seasonal vulnerability. © 2010 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.
Abstract.
Tompkins EL, Adger WN, Boyd E, Nicholson-Cole S, Weatherhead K, Arnell N (2010). Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society.
Global Environmental Change,
20(4), 627-635.
Abstract:
Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society
This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Rayner T (2010). Oral evidence and written memorandum. In House of Commons Environment Audit Committee (Ed) Adapting to Climate Change: Sixth Report of Session 2009-10, London: Stationary Office, 96-108.
Adger WN, Brown K, Conway D (2010). Progress in global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 547-549.
Miller F, Osbahr H, Boyd E, Thomalla F, Bharwani S, Ziervogel G, Walker B, Birkmann J, van der Leeuw S, Rockstroem J, et al (2010). Resilience and Vulnerability: Complementary or Conflicting Concepts?.
ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY,
15(3).
Author URL.
Wolf J, Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, Abrahamson V, Raine R (2010). Social capital, individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: an empirical study of two UK cities.
Global Environmental Change,
20(1), 44-52.
Abstract:
Social capital, individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: an empirical study of two UK cities
It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals' responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Jansson C, Wallander M-A, Johansson S, Johnsen R, Hveem K (2010). Stressful psychosocial factors and symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease: a population-based study in Norway.
SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY,
45(1), 21-29.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Barnett J, Ellemor H (2010). Unique and Valued Places. In Schneider SH, Rosencranz A, Mastrandrea MD (Eds.)
Climate change science and policy, Island Press, 131-138.
Abstract:
Unique and Valued Places
Abstract.
2009
Goulden M, Naess LO, Vincent K, Adger WN (2009). Accessing diversification, networks and traditional resource management as adaptations to climate extremes. In Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 448-464.
Abstract:
Accessing diversification, networks and traditional resource management as adaptations to climate extremes
Abstract.
Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien K (2009). Adaptation now. In Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (Eds.)
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 1-22.
Abstract:
Adaptation now
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (2009). Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience: ecological and social perspectives. In Castree N, Demeritt D, Liverman D, Rhoads B (Eds.)
A Companion to Environmental Geography, Oxford: Blackwell, 109-122.
Abstract:
Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience: ecological and social perspectives
Abstract.
Adger WN, Lorenzoni I, O'Brien KL (2009).
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance., Cambridge Univ Press.
Abstract:
Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance
Abstract.
Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Nelson DR, Naess LO, Wolf J, Wreford A (2009). Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?.
Climatic Change,
93(3-4), 335-354.
Abstract:
Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?
While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Abstract.
Daw T, Adger WN, Brown K, Badjeck M-C (2009). Climate change and capture fisheries. In Cochrane K, De Young C, Soto D, Bahri T (Eds.) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Overview of current scientific knowledge. Technical Paper 530, Rome: FAO, 107-153.
Adger WN, Barnett J (2009). Four reasons for concern about adaptation to climate change. Environment and Planning A, 41(12), 2800-2805.
Osman-Elasha B, Parrotta J, Adger WN, Brockhaus M, Pierce Colfer C, Sohngen B (2009). Future Socio-Economic Impacts and Vulnerabilities. In Seppälä R, Buck A, Katila P (Eds.) Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. IUFRO World Series Vol. 22, Helsinki: IUFRO, 101-122.
Adger WN, Jordan A (eds)(2009).
Governing Sustainability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Abstract:
Governing Sustainability
Abstract.
Adger WN, Eakin H, Winkels A (2009). Nested and networked vulnerabilities. In Lebel L (Ed) Critical States: Environmental Challenges to Development in Monsoon Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur: Gerakbudaya, 411-423.
Adger WN, Eakin H, Winkels A (2009). Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
7(3), 150-157.
Abstract:
Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change
The vulnerability of distant peoples and places to global change in environment and society is nested and teleconnected. Here, we argue that such vulnerabilities are linked through environmental change process feedbacks, economic market linkages, and flows of resources, people, and information. We illustrate these linkages through the examples of the global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the interdependent vulnerabilities and adaptations of coffee farmers in Vietnam and Mexico. These cases demonstrate that the vulnerability of specific individuals and communities is not geographically bounded but, rather, is connected at different scales, so that the drivers of their exposure and sensitivity are inseparable from large-scale processes of sociocultural change and market integration. Aggregate outcomes of government policies, trends in global commodity markets, and even decisions by individuals to improve livelihood security can have negative repercussions, not only locally, through transformations of ecological systems and social relations, but also at larger scales. © the Ecological Society of America.
Abstract.
Abrahamson V, Wolf J, Lorenzoni I, Fenn B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P, Adger WN, Raine R (2009). Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: Interview-based study of older people in London and Norwich, UK.
Journal of Public Health,
31(1), 119-126.
Abstract:
Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: Interview-based study of older people in London and Norwich, UK
BackgroundMost projections of climate change suggest an increased frequency of heatwaves in England over coming decades; older people are at particular risk. This could result in substantial mortality and morbidity.ObjectiveTo determine elderly people's knowledge and perceptions of heat-related risks to health, and of protective behaviours.MethodsSemi-structured interviews: 73 men and women, 72-94 years, living in their own homes in London and Norwich, UK.ResultsFew respondents considered themselves either old or at risk from the effects of heat, even though many had some form of relevant chronic illness; they did recognize that some medical conditions might increase risks in others. Most reported that they had taken appropriate steps to reduce the effects of heat. Some respondents considered it appropriate for the government to take responsibility for protecting vulnerable people, but many thought state intervention was unnecessary, intrusive and unlikely to be effective. Respondents were more positive about the value of appropriately disseminated advice and solutions by communities themselves.ConclusionThe Heatwave Plan should consider giving greater emphasis to a population-based information strategy, using innovative information dissemination methods to increase awareness of vulnerability to heat among the elderly and to ensure clarity about behaviour modification measures.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Jordan A (2009). Sustainability: exploring the processes and outcomes of governance. In Adger WN, Jordan A (Eds.)
Governing Sustainability, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Press, 3-31.
Abstract:
Sustainability: exploring the processes and outcomes of governance
Abstract.
Doria MDF, Boyd E, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2009). Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change.
Environmental Science and Policy,
12(7), 810-819.
Abstract:
Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change
This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K (2009). Vulnerability and Resilience to Environmental Change: Ecological and Social Perspectives. , 109-122.
Allison EH, Perry AL, Badjeck M-C, Adger WN, Brown K, Conway D, Halls AS, Pilling GM, Reynolds JD, Andrew NL, et al (2009). Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries. Fish and Fisheries, 10(2), 173-196.
Wreford A, Adger N (2009). What can we learn from historic adaptations to extreme events in agriculture?.
2008
Wreford A, Adger WN (2008). Climate change and the economics of adaptation. Economic Review, 26(1), 2-5.
Osbahr H, Twyman C, Adger WN, Thomas DSG (2008). Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique. Geoforum, 39(6), 1951-1964.
Adger WN (2008). Governments, responsibilities, barriers and actors in adaptation action for climate change. In Bierbaum R, Brown D, McAlpine J (Eds.) Coping with Climate Change, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 108-116.
2007
Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007). Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework.
Annual Review of Environment and Resources,
32, 395-419.
Abstract:
Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework
Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. The dominant research tradition on adaptation to environmental change primarily takes an actorcentered view, focusing on the agency of social actors to respond to specific environmental stimuli and emphasizing the reduction of vulnerabilities. The resilience approach is systems orientated, takes a more dynamic view, and sees adaptive capacity as a core feature of resilient social-ecological systems. The two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation. We argue that resilience provides a useful framework to analyze adaptation processes and to identify appropriate policy responses. We distinguish between incremental adjustments and transformative action and demonstrate that the sources of resilience for taking adaptive action are common across scales. These are the inherent system characteristics that absorb perturbations without losing function, networks and social capital that allow autonomous action, and resources that promote institutional learning. Copyright ©2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Agrawala S, Mirza M, Conde C, O'Brien KL, Pulhin J, Pulwarty R, Smit B, Takahashi K (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof JP, Hansen C, van der Linden P (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge Univ Pr, 719-743.
Abstract:
Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
Abstract.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict.
Political Geography,
26(6), 639-655.
Abstract:
Climate change, human security and violent conflict
Climate change is increasingly been called a 'security' problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research - on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Morsello C, Adger WN (2007). Do partnerships between large corporations and Amazonian indigenous groups help or hinder communities and forests?. In Ros-Tonen M, Hombergh HVD, Zoomers EB (Eds.)
Partnerships in sustainable forest resource management, Leiden: Brill Academic Pub, 147-167.
Abstract:
Do partnerships between large corporations and Amazonian indigenous groups help or hinder communities and forests?
Abstract.
Adger WN (2007). Ecological and social resilience. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E (Eds.)
Handbook of sustainable development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 78-90.
Abstract:
Ecological and social resilience
Abstract.
Adger WN, Agrawala, S. Aggarwal P, Alcamo J (2007). Summary for policy-makers. In Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof JP, Hansen C, van der Linden P (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 7-22.
Corbera E, Brown K, Adger WN (2007). The equity and legitimacy of markets for ecosystem services. Development and Change, 38(4), 587-613.
Adger WN, Winkels A (2007). Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being. In Atkinson G, Dietz S, Neumayer E (Eds.)
Handbook of sustainable development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 189-204.
Abstract:
Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being
Abstract.
2006
Paavola J, Adger WN (2006). Fair adaptation to climate change.
Ecological Economics,
56(4), 594-609.
Abstract:
Fair adaptation to climate change
This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Paavola J, Huq S, Mace MC (2006).
Fairness in adaptation to climate change., the MIT Press.
Abstract:
Fairness in adaptation to climate change
Abstract.
Pyhälä A, Brown K, Adger WN (2006). Implications of livelihood dependence on non-timber products in Peruvian Amazonia. Ecosystems, 9(8), 1328-1341.
Zhang HX, Kelly PM, Locke C, Winkels A, Adger WN (2006). Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam.
Geoforum,
37(6), 1066-1081.
Abstract:
Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam
Migration is frequently portrayed as a negative force in its relationship with economic and social development. This negative perception is exhibited through describing population movements as either 'forced' (e.g. political and environmental refugees) or 'voluntary' movements (e.g. economic and uninhibited relocation). This paper examines the limitations of this conceptual dualism. It points out that the dualistic approach, widely used in the context of developing countries, simplifies a highly complex phenomenon by ignoring its essential heterogeneity and spatial and temporal dynamics. As such, it is limited in explaining and understanding the globally diversified, historically and politically contextualised situations. Focusing on the migratory experiences of contemporary Vietnam, the study identifies major patterns and trends of population mobility in the country in the past fifty years. It shows that despite the state's continued attempts to reshape the spatial distribution of population over recent historical periods, the policy outcomes with respect to population mobility have been swayed as much by individuals and their families in pursuit of their own aspirations and livelihoods as by state plans. The Vietnam case has provided evidence of a much more complicated relationship between migration and livelihoods than the conceptual dichotomy assumes, and the opportunity for a richer set of policy options. We argue that the evidence from Vietnam, and elsewhere, warrants an integrated approach to studying migration, combining analysis at the macro- and micro-levels with the nexus lying at the critical decision-making point of the individual or household. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Cash DW, Adger WN, Berkes F, Garden P, Lebel L, Olsson P, Pritchard L, Young O (2006). Scale and cross-scale dynamics: Governance and information in a multilevel world. Ecology and Society, 11(2).
Adger WN (2006). Vulnerability.
Global Environmental Change,
16(3), 268-281.
Abstract:
Vulnerability
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
2005
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005). Adapting to climate change: perspectives across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 75-76.
Brooks N, Adger N (2005). Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity. In Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E, Burton I (Eds.) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 165-181.
Adger WN, Barnett J (2005). Compensation for climate change must meet needs [3]. Nature, 436(7049).
Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2005). Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy. Environmental Science and Policy, 8(6), 562-571.
Arnell NW, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2005). Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1419-1431.
Paavola J, Adger WN (2005). Institutional ecological economics.
Ecological Economics,
53(3), 353-368.
Abstract:
Institutional ecological economics
New institutional economics and its forerunners have, we argue made important contributions to the evolving agenda of ecological economics. The conceptualisation of environmental problems as instances of interdependence and the acknowledgement of positive transaction costs are key insights into the nature of environmental problems. We also discuss how plurality of behavioural motivations and limited cognitive capacity have important implications for environmental decision making and its analysis. We show how evolutionary and collective action theories offer complementary takes on the choice and change of environmental governance institutions and how the concept of social capital can enrich analyses of environmental governance. We conclude that an emerging institutional ecological economics has the greatest relative advantage in analysing the design, implementation and effectiveness of environmental governance solutions. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Yohe G, Adger N, Dowlatabadi H, Ebi K, Huq S, Moran D, Rothman D, Strzerpek K, Ziervogel G (2005). Recognizing uncertainties and evaluating responses. In Chopra K, Leemans R (Eds.) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Responses Assessment Volume 3, Washington DC: Island Press, 95-116.
Adger WN, Brown K, Hulme M (2005). Redefining global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 15(1), 1-4.
Adger WN, Hughes TP, Folke C, Carpenter SR, Rockström J (2005). Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters.
Science,
309(5737), 1036-1039.
Abstract:
Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters.
Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.
Abstract.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL (2005). Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.
Global Environmental Change,
15(2), 77-86.
Abstract:
Successful adaptation to climate change across scales
Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Brooks N, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2005). The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation.
Global Environmental Change,
15(2), 151-163.
Abstract:
The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity - one element of vulnerability - is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Tompkins EL (2005). The political economy of cross-scale networks in resource co-management. Ecology and Society, 10(2).
Adger WN, Vincent K (2005). Uncertainty in adaptive capacity.
Comptes Rendus - Geoscience,
337(4), 399-410.
Abstract:
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. © 2004 Académia des Sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
2004
Dessai S, Adger WN, Hulme M, Turnpenny J, Köhler J, Warren R (2004). Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change: an editorial essay.
Climatic Change,
64(1-2), 11-25.
Abstract:
Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change: an editorial essay
Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term 'external' and 'internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.
Abstract.
Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2004). Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change?. Ecology and Society, 9(2).
Sidle RC, Taylor D, Lu XX, Adger WN, Lowe DJ, de Lange WP, Newnham RM, Dodson JR (2004). Interactions of natural hazards and society in Austral-Asia: evidence in past and recent records. Quaternary International, 118-19, 181-203.
Adger WN (2004). The right to keep cold. Environment and Planning A, 36(10), 1711-1715.
Adger WN (2004). The right to keep cold. Environment and Planning A, 36(10), 1711-1715.
2003
Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K, Conway D, Hulme M (2003). Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies, 3(3), 179-195.
Adger WN (2003). Chapter 7: Governing natural resources: institutional adaption and resilience. In (Ed) Negotiating Environmental Change, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Barnett J, Adger WN (2003). Climate dangers and atoll countries.
Climatic Change,
61(3), 321-337.
Abstract:
Climate dangers and atoll countries
Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brooks N (2003). Does global environmental change cause vulnerability to disaster?. Natural Disasters and Development in a Globalizing World, 19-42.
Dietz S, Adger WN (2003). Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort.
Journal of Environmental Management,
68(1), 23-35.
Abstract:
Economic growth, biodiversity loss and conservation effort
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K, Fairbrass J, Jordan A, Paavola J, Rosendo S, Seyfang G (2003). Governance for sustainability: Towards a 'thick' analysis of environmental decisionmaking. Environment and Planning A, 35(6), 1095-1110.
Adger WN (2003). Governing natural resources: Institutional adaptation and resilience. Negotiating Environmental Change: New Perspectives from Social Science, 193-208.
Tri NH, Hong PN, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2003). Mangrove conservation and restoration for enhanced resilience.
Author URL.
Adger WN (2003). Social aspects of adaptive capacity. In Smith J, Klein R, Huq S (Eds.)
Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development, London: Imperial College Press, 29-49.
Abstract:
Social aspects of adaptive capacity
Abstract.
Adger WN (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change.
Economic Geography,
79(4), 387-404.
Abstract:
Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change
Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. © 2003 Clark University.
Abstract.
2002
Adger WN (2002). Inequality, environment, and planning. Environment and Planning A, 34(10), 1716-1719.
Tompkins E, Adger WN, Brown K (2002). Institutional networks for inclusive coastal management in Trinidad and Tobago. Environment and Planning A, 34(6), 1095-1111.
Brown K, Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2002).
Making Waves: Integrating Coastal Conservation and Development. London, Earthscan.
Abstract:
Making Waves: Integrating Coastal Conservation and Development
Abstract.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Winkels A, Huy LQ, Locke C (2002). Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories, and social resilience.
Ambio,
31(4), 358-366.
Abstract:
Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories, and social resilience.
We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience.
Abstract.
Author URL.
2001
Adger WN, Benjaminsen TA, Brown K, Svarstad H (2001). Advancing a political ecology of global environmental discourses. Development and Change, 32(4), 681-715.
Turner RK, Bateman IJ, Adger WN (2001). Ecological Economics and Coastal Zone Ecosystems’ Values: an Overview. In (Ed) Economics of Coastal and Water Resources: Valuing Environmental Functions, Springer Nature, 1-43.
Adger WN, Kelly PM, Ninh NH (2001).
Living with Environmental Change: Social Resilience, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Vietnam., Routledge.
Abstract:
Living with Environmental Change: Social Resilience, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Vietnam
Abstract.
Brouwer R, Bateman IJ, Turner RK, Adger WN, Boar R, Crooks S, Dockerty T, Georgiou S, Jones A, Langford IH, et al (2001). Management of a Multi-Purpose Coastal Wetland: the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads, England. In (Ed) Economics of Coastal and Water Resources: Valuing Environmental Functions, Springer Nature, 159-213.
Adger WN (2001). Scales of governance and environmental justice for adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Journal of International Development, 13(7), 921-931.
Turner RK, Bateman IJ, Adger WN (2001). The Economics of Water and Coastal Resources: Valuing Ecosystem Services. Dordrecht, Kluwer.
Brown K, Adger WN, Tompkins E, Bacon P, Shim D, Young K (2001). Trade-off analysis for marine protected area management. Ecological Economics, 37(3), 417-434.
2000
Locke C, Adger WN, Kelly PM (2000). Changing places: Migration's social and environmental consequences. Environment, 42(7), 24-35.
Adger WN (2000). Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers,
90(4), 738-758.
Abstract:
Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam
This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. Institutions encompass both socialized ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organizations that influence resource allocation. The adaptation of institutions that mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed by examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decisionmaking and nondecisionmaking, as well as by examining changing perceptions of vulnerability. Institutional adaptation is evaluated in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam, a country presently undergoing rapid economic and political transition. The case study highlights local-level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with flooding and typhoon impacts in the coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork involving qualitative household surveys and interviewing to elicit present and recent coping and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as a macroeconomic success story, this study argues that the transition has had negative impacts on social vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for risk management by state institutions in exacerbated by inertia in some aspects of the decentralized state planning system, while the parallel spontaneous reemergence of civil institutions forms a counterbalancing institutional adaptation.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Luttrell C (2000). Property rights and the utilisation of wetlands.
Ecological Economics,
35(1), 75-89.
Abstract:
Property rights and the utilisation of wetlands
This paper argues that successful conservation of wetlands is fundamentally determined by the institutions and property rights associated with resource management decisions. Thus an understanding of property rights regimes, the constraints which they impose on users of wetlands resources, and the distribution of benefits of use among users and non-users are essential if the economic values of wetland ecosystems and functions are to be realised. We outline relevant theoretical perspectives on property rights and the sustainable utilisation of natural resources. We argue that wetland resources tend to have unique property rights regimes due to their ecological characteristics, namely, their multiple-resource characteristics, the indivisible nature of these resources, and the seasonal and cyclical nature of different wetland resource components. Case studies of property rights regimes in Indonesia and Vietnam are presented. These show that wetland resources are often managed as common pool resources, and that state appropriation of resources or the imposition of private property rights can contribute to unsustainable utilisation or conversion of wetlands to other uses. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
Abstract.
Adger WN (2000). Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?.
Progress in Human Geography,
24(3), 347-364.
Abstract:
Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?
This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined.
Abstract.
Kelly PM, Adger WN (2000). Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation.
Climatic Change,
47(4), 325-352.
Abstract:
Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation
We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources.
Abstract.
1999
Adger WN (1999). Evolution of economy and environment: an application to land use in lowland Vietnam.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,
31(3), 365-379.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1999). Exploring income inequality in rural, coastal Viet Nam.
JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES,
35(5), 96-119.
Author URL.
Cannell MGR, Milne R, Hargreaves KJ, Brown TAW, Cruickshank MM, Bradley RI, Spencer T, Hope D, Billett MF, Adger WN, et al (1999). National inventories of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks: the UK experience.
CLIMATIC CHANGE,
42(3), 505-530.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Kelly PM (1999). Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
4(3-4), 253-266.
Abstract:
Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements
The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neoclassical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.
Abstract.
Turner RK, Adger WN, Crooks S, Lorenzoni I, Ledoux L (1999). Sustainable coastal resources management: Principles and practice.
Natural Resources Forum,
23(4), 275-286.
Abstract:
Sustainable coastal resources management: Principles and practice
Coastal zones are currently experiencing intense and sustained environmental pressures from a range of driving forces. Responsible agencies around the globe are seeking ways of better managing the causes and consequences of the environmental change process in coastal areas. This article discusses the basic principles underpinning a more integrated approach to coastal management, as well as the obstacles to its implementation in both developed and developing countries. The fulfilment of the goal of sustainable utilisation of coastal resources via integrated management is likely to prove to be difficult. Any successful strategy will have to encompass all the elements of management from planning and design through financing and implementation. An interdisciplinary analytical and operational approach is also required, combined with a more flexible and participatory institutional structure and emphasis to account for multiple stakeholders and resource demands. As historical and institutional perspectives as well as socio-economic and cultural contexts are also important, two case studies (based on UK and Vietnamese experiences) are presented in order to identify arguments and examine these aspects in more detail.
Abstract.
1998
Turner RK, Adger WN, Brouwer R (1998). Ecosystem services value, research needs, and policy relevance: a commentary.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,
25(1), 61-65.
Author URL.
Tri NH, Adger WN, Kelly PM (1998). Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,
8(1), 49-61.
Author URL.
Adger WN (1998). Observing institutional adaptation to global environmental change: Theory and case study from Vietnam.
Working Paper - Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 98-21).
Abstract:
Observing institutional adaptation to global environmental change: Theory and case study from Vietnam
This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. It argues that institutions encompass both socialised ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organisations which influence resource allocation. Adaptation of the institutions which mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed through examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decision-making and non-decision-making and through changing perceptions of vulnerability. This framework is applied to a case study in the context of Vietnam under its present economic and political transition. The case study developed in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam highlights local level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with this hazardous coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork in this District involving qualitative household survey and elite interviewing to elicit present and recent historical coping and adaptation in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as being successful from a macro-economic perspective, this study argues that this masks some important aspects of social vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for the management of risk by state institutions is determined by inertia in some aspects of the decentralised state planning system, while parallel spontaneous re-emergence of civil society institutions form a counter-balancing institutional adaptation.
Abstract.
1997
Adger WN, Pettenella D, Whitby MC (1997).
Climate-change mitigation and European land-use policies. Wallingford, CABI.
Abstract:
Climate-change mitigation and European land-use policies
Abstract.
Maddison D, Pearce D, Adger N, McLeod H (1997). Environmentally damaging subsidies in the United Kingdom.
European Environment,
7(4), 110-117.
Abstract:
Environmentally damaging subsidies in the United Kingdom
It is widely understood that many subsidies have the unintended effect of promoting activities associated with environmental degradation. But the sheer size of the implicit subsidies which various sectors receive is often not appreciated. Neither is it realised that the practice of estimating the extent of subsidies is far from straightforward, that there are good and bad reasons for subsidies and environmental degradation is often as indirect one. This paper analyses the hypothesised linkages between environmental degradation and the subsidies offered to certain activities and offers a quantitative estimate of the size of environmentally damaging subsidies which currently exist in the United Kingdom. It is found that environmentally damaging subsidies at present exceed 20 billion with the largest single subsidy going to users of transport infrastructure.
Abstract.
Whitby MC, Adger WN (1997). Natural and reproducible capital and the sustainability of land use in the UK: a reply. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 48(3), 454-458.
Neil Adger W, Mick Kelly P, Tri NH (1997). Valuing the products and services of mangrove restoration.
Commonwealth Forestry Review,
76(3), 198-202.
Abstract:
Valuing the products and services of mangrove restoration
The rehabilitation of mangrove forests results in both marketed economic products and in the enhancement of coastal protection services. This latter indirect benefit is important where hazards such as storm surges and floods make communties vulnerable to climate risks.Estimates are presented of the benefits of mangrove restoration undertaken to enhance sea defence systems in three coastal districts of northern Vietnam. Mangrove rehabilitation can be desirable from an economic perspective based solely on the direct use benefits by local communities. Such activities have even higher benefit cost ratios with the inclusion of the indirect benefits resulting from the avoided maintenance cost for the sea dike system which the mangrove stands protect from coastal storm surges.
Abstract.
1996
Adger WN (1996). Approaches to vulnerability to climate change.
Working Paper - Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment,
GEC 96-05Abstract:
Approaches to vulnerability to climate change
This paper argues that social vulnerability of climate variability is the key dimension in the constitution of vulnerability, and that this parameter shifts emphasis onto the underlying rather than the proximate causes of vulnerability. It is suggested that the aspects of individual and collective vulnerability are distinct. They encompass relative poverty and deprivation as well as informal social security at the individual level; and infrastructure, the role of the state and police intervention at the collective level. Vulnerability to climate change encompasses changes in individual and collective vulnerability over time associated with the changing incidence of extreme events. These hypotheses are illustrated by a preview of research results from a case study employing this framework in northern Vietnam. The results show that social and economic change in Vietnam exacerbates some aspects of vulnerability, while offsetting these by other mechanisms. The relevant indicators include levels of poverty, levels of inequality and institutional analysis.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Subak S (1996). Estimating above-ground Carbon Fluxes from UK Agricultural Land.
Geographical Journal,
162(2), 191-204.
Abstract:
Estimating above-ground Carbon Fluxes from UK Agricultural Land
Land use changes can result in emissions and removals from the atmosphere of the most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), thus influencing potential climatic change. In this study, annual agricultural census data is used to estimate the net flux from land use change on UK agricultural land, which comprises over three quarters of the UK land area. The assessment includes a new estimate of changes in carbon storage on arable land due to improvements in yield and changes in area devoted to different crops. The study complements recent assessments of CO2 flux in the forestry sector, and provides an alternative to a previous assessment of CO2 flux in the agricultural sector based on periodic land cover surveys. In this study the authors estimate changes in CO2 emissions and storage from above-ground biomass on agricultural land for the period 1970-1992. Annual CO2-C flux on agricultural land is estimated as 200 to 417 kC per year in the period 1970-1988 and 339 to 371 kC per year during 1988-1992. These results are consistent with the estimated range for 1990 published in the UK national communication to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but may provide a preferable point estimate for the agricultural sector. The intervals used in this study were selected in order to identify flux changes resulting from important new UK land use policy: the introduction in 1988 of incentives to take arable land out of production, known as set-aside. To date, the set-aside programme has resulted in very little carbon sequestration. However such a policy could result in much greater carbon sequestration in future, as the rotation requirement for such land use has been waived from 1996 onwards.
Abstract.
Whitby M, Adger WN (1996). Natural and reproducible capital and the sustainability of land use in the UK.
Author URL.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger WN (1996). Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems.
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,
20(2), 159-173.
Author URL.
1995
Turner RK, Adger N, Doktor P (1995). Assessing the economic costs of sea level rise.
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A,
27(11), 1777-1796.
Author URL.
ADGER WN (1995). COMPLIANCE WITH THE CLIMATE-CHANGE CONVENTION.
Author URL.
PEARCE D, ADGER N, MADDISON D, MORAN D (1995). DEBT AND THE ENVIRONMENT.
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,
272(6), 52-56.
Author URL.
Pearce D, Adger N, Maddison D, Moran D (1995). Debt and the environment. Scientific American, 272(6), 28-32.
Mudge F, Adger WN (1995). Methane fluxes from artificial wetlands: a global appraisal.
Environmental Management,
19(1), 39-55.
Abstract:
Methane fluxes from artificial wetlands: a global appraisal
Methane emissions make an important contribution to the enhanced greenhouse effect, emissions from rice growing being one of its major anthropogenic sources. The estimation of global fluxes of methane from rice and from coarse fiber production depends on extrapolating observed data across countries and agroclimatic zones: the estimates are therefore imprecise. We present a revised estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH4/yr, given 1991 rice areas, and 1991 production data for those tropical coarse fibers that also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. This is higher than many previous studies, which systematically underestimated the fluxes from tropical countries. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertilizer use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit or rice production. © 1995 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Abstract.
Adger WN, Brown K (1995). Policy implications of the missing global carbon sink. Area, 27(4), 311-317.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger N (1995). Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-09).
Abstract:
Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socio-economic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damages in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures, information, economic market and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. A precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. -from Authors
Abstract.
Turner RK, Subak S, Adger N (1995). Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-09).
Abstract:
Pressures, trends and impacts in the coastal zones: interactions between socio-economic and natural systems
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socio-economic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damages in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures, information, economic market and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. A precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. -from Authors
Abstract.
Adger N (1995). Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-25).
Abstract:
Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa
Land reform is a key element in the reconstruction and development programme being undertaken in South Africa. In areas presently used for nature conservation, evidence is presented that nature conservation activities, particularly with tourism revenue, can be the most "profitable'. This paper argues however that distinction between mutually exclusive land uses such as agriculture or nature conservation is false, as demonstrated elsewhere in Africa. In order to integrate nature conservation with other land uses, redistribution of property rights allowing multiple land uses is required. These issues are reviewed with reference to a case study of the northern Transvaal region. -from Author
Abstract.
Adger N (1995). Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 95-25).
Abstract:
Property rights, nature conservation and land reform in South Africa
Land reform is a key element in the reconstruction and development programme being undertaken in South Africa. In areas presently used for nature conservation, evidence is presented that nature conservation activities, particularly with tourism revenue, can be the most "profitable'. This paper argues however that distinction between mutually exclusive land uses such as agriculture or nature conservation is false, as demonstrated elsewhere in Africa. In order to integrate nature conservation with other land uses, redistribution of property rights allowing multiple land uses is required. These issues are reviewed with reference to a case study of the northern Transvaal region. -from Author
Abstract.
ADGER WN, BROWN K, CERVIGNI R, MORAN D (1995). TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE OF FORESTS IN MEXICO.
AMBIO,
24(5), 286-296.
Author URL.
1994
Adger WN, Grohs F (1994). Aggregate estimate of environmental degradation for Zimbabwe: Does sustainable national income ensure sustainability?.
Ecological Economics,
11(2), 93-104.
Abstract:
Aggregate estimate of environmental degradation for Zimbabwe: Does sustainable national income ensure sustainability?
Standard measures of economic growth do not adequately reflect changes in aggregate welfare over time. Sustainable national income is therefore defined as Net National Product with adjustments for the degradation of renewable and non-renewable capital. Productivity loss rather than replacement cost is the most theoretically correct way to value resource depletion. Modified net product is estimated for the agriculture and forestry sectors of Zimbabwe by valuing the loss of forest stock and soil erosion. The results show that traditional measures overstate the value of the agricultural sector's product by approximately 10% in 1989. It is argued that indicators of sustainable national income do not ensure sustainable development; as with all macroeconomic indicators, they do not account for distributional and equity issues which are at the crux of sustainable development, nor do they point to mechanisms that would ensure sustainable resource management. Rising sustainable income over time is therefore a necessary but not sufficient condition for the achievement of sustainable development. © 1994.
Abstract.
BROWN K, ADGER WN (1994). ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF INTERNATIONAL CARBON OFFSETS.
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,
68(2-3), 217-229.
Author URL.
ADGER WN, MORAN DC (1994). ESTIMATING THE BENEFITS OF GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSION REDUCTION FROM AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Brown K (1994).
Land Use and the Causes of Global Warming. Chichester, Wiley.
Abstract:
Land Use and the Causes of Global Warming
Abstract.
Mudge F, Adger N (1994). Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-08).
Abstract:
Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production
Methane is an important contributor to the greenhouse effect, and rice growing is one of the major anthropogenic sources. The paper presents a revised central estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH4 per year, given 1991 rice areas and 1991 production data for coarse fibres which are grown with rice in rotation and which also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertiliser use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit of rice production. -from Authors
Abstract.
Mudge F, Adger N (1994). Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-08).
Abstract:
Methane emissions from rice and coarse fibre production
Methane is an important contributor to the greenhouse effect, and rice growing is one of the major anthropogenic sources. The paper presents a revised central estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH 4. per year, given 1991 rice areas and 1991 production data for coarse fibres which are grown with rice in rotation and which also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertiliser use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit of rice production. -from Authors
Abstract.
TURNER RK, DOKTOR P, ADGER N (1994). SEA-LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL WETLANDS IN THE UK - MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT.
Author URL.
Adger N, Brown K, Cervigni R, Moran D (1994). Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-21).
Abstract:
Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico
Failure to account for the numerous functions and economic uses of forests have led to patterns of global forest use with many detrimental environmental consequences. This study demonstrates the economic techniques for estimating the total economic value (TEV) of forests. For the Mexican forest estate, the results show an annual lower bound value of the services of the total forest area to be in the order of $4 billion. This aggregate value stems from the non-marketed services provided by non-consumptive use; from future potential uses of the genetic resources and from pure existence values; and the largest proportion of economic value coming from the functional values of hydrological and carbon cycling. However, only a proportion of this value can feasibly be "captured' within Mexico: much of the benefit of Mexico's forest falls outside the country's borders, and is therefore not considered by forest users or national policy makers. -Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K, Cervigni R, Moran D (1994). Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-21).
Abstract:
Towards estimating total economic value of forests in Mexico
Failure to account for the numerous functions and economic uses of forests have led to patterns of global forest use with many detrimental environmental consequences. This study demonstrates the economic techniques for estimating the total economic value (TEV) of forests. For the Mexican forest estate, the results show an annual lower bound value of the services of the total forest area to be in the order of $4 billion. This aggregate value stems from the non-marketed services provided by non-consumptive use; from future potential uses of the genetic resources and from pure existence values; and the largest proportion of economic value coming from the functional values of hydrological and carbon cycling. However, only a proportion of this value can feasibly be "captured' within Mexico: much of the benefit of Mexico's forest falls outside the country's borders, and is therefore not considered by forest users or national policy makers. -Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (1994). Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-14).
Abstract:
Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect
Land use activities constitute a major but uncertain source of emissions currently enhancing the greenhouse effect. The terrestrial stock of carbon is also uncertain and has been hypothesised as a possible site for the "missing' carbon sink. The policy implications of the missing sink being located in the terrestrial biota are discussed. Future strategies which offset global emissions through afforestation, for example, may become more cost effective with increased CO 2. fertilisation or through the re-estimation of biomass and soil carbon uptake. Estimates are presented of the cost-effectiveness of afforesting land diverted from agriculture in the UK in this context. It is found that the likelihood both of afforestation, and of halting deforestation globally, is diminished by policy failures which exacerbate unsustainable and undesirable use of land. A greater understanding of the location of the missing sink could redirect abatement efforts towards the conservation of land based resources, and make the carbon cycle implications of land use change an even more significant issue. -from Authors
Abstract.
Adger N, Brown K (1994). Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect.
Working Paper - Centre for Social & Economic Research on the Global Environment(GEC 94-14).
Abstract:
Trees, people, the missing sink and the greenhouse effect
Land use activities constitute a major but uncertain source of emissions currently enhancing the greenhouse effect. The terrestrial stock of carbon is also uncertain and has been hypothesised as a possible site for the "missing' carbon sink. The policy implications of the missing sink being located in the terrestrial biota are discussed. Future strategies which offset global emissions through afforestation, for example, may become more cost effective with increased CO2 fertilisation or through the re-estimation of biomass and soil carbon uptake. Estimates are presented of the cost-effectiveness of afforesting land diverted from agriculture in the UK in this context. It is found that the likelihood both of afforestation, and of halting deforestation globally, is diminished by policy failures which exacerbate unsustainable and undesirable use of land. A greater understanding of the location of the missing sink could redirect abatement efforts towards the conservation of land based resources, and make the carbon cycle implications of land use change an even more significant issue. -from Authors
Abstract.
1993
ADGER WN, BROWN K (1993). A UK GREENHOUSE-GAS INVENTORY - ON ESTIMATING ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL SOURCES AND SINKS.
AMBIO,
22(8), 509-517.
Author URL.
BROWN K, ADGER N (1993). ESTIMATING NATIONAL GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS UNDER THE CLIMATE-CHANGE CONVENTION.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,
3(2), 149-158.
Author URL.
Adger N, Fankhauser S (1993). Economic analysis of the greenhouse effect: Optimal abatement level and strategies for mitigation.
International Journal of Environment and Pollution,
3(1-3), 104-119.
Abstract:
Economic analysis of the greenhouse effect: Optimal abatement level and strategies for mitigation
The economic analysis of global warming involves identifying and quantifying in economic terms the impacts of global warming and the abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions. At the global level, countries will act strategically depending on their perceived costs and impacts. This is simulated through a global model of costs and damage of global warming. At the local level, the impacts of global warming are effectively exogenous to the decision problem. This is illustrated by a case study of mitigation options in the face of climate-induced sea-level rise in East Anglia, UK. Both cases result in recommendations for precautionary action in the face of uncertainty as to the future potential damage of global warming.
Abstract.
Brown K, Adger WN, Turner RK (1993). Global environmental change and mechanisms for north‐south resource transfers.
Journal of International Development,
5(6), 571-589.
Abstract:
Global environmental change and mechanisms for north‐south resource transfers
Global Environmental Change is central to the debate on the relationship between environmental degradaton and economic development. This paper examines the agreements signed at the Earth Summit held in Rio in 1992 and highlights some implications for developing countries. The interim mechanism for resource transfer under the Conventions is the Global Enviornmental Facility, but it appears that transfers on a scale necessary to bring anout sustainable development as envisaged by Agenda 21 cannot be made through this mechanism alone. It is argued here that other mechanisms to promote development, such as debt relief, should not be ignored. Copyright © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Abstract.
ADGER WN, WHITBY MC (1993). NATURAL-RESOURCE ACCOUNTING IN THE LAND-USE SECTOR - THEORY AND PRACTICE.
EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,
20(1), 77-97.
Author URL.
1992
ADGER WN, BROWN K, SHIEL RS, WHITBY MC (1992). CARBON DYNAMICS OF LAND-USE IN GREAT-BRITAIN.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,
36(2), 117-133.
Author URL.
ADGER WN, CHIGUME S (1992). METHODOLOGIES AND INSTITUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE EVOLVING ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK.
THIRD WORLD PLANNING REVIEW,
14(3), 283-295.
Author URL.
Adger WN, Brown K, Shiel RS, Whitby MC (1992). Sequestration and emissions from agriculture and forestry. Carbon in the dock. Land Use Policy, 9(2), 122-130.
Pearce D, Fankhauser S, Adger N, Swanson T (1992). World Economy, World Environment. World Economy, 15(3), 295-314.
1991
Adger N, Whitby M (1991). Accounting for the impact of agriculture and forestry on environmental quality.
European Economic Review,
35(2-3), 629-641.
Abstract:
Accounting for the impact of agriculture and forestry on environmental quality
A framework for modifying sectoral accounts for environmental externalities is assembled as a basis for estimating the National Income Accounts for U.K. agriculture and forestry. Valuation of positive and negative environmental impacts draws on revealed and expressed preference evaluations. The approach taken seeks to modify the national accounts for agriculture and forestry by first assessing the physical significance of the relevant externalities (in terms of land use designations and physical pollutants) and then valuing them using existing studies. © 1991.
Abstract.
Whitby MC, Adger WN (1991). Assessing the environmental impacts of land use; What role for economic assessment?.
European Environment,
1(4), 13-17.
Abstract:
Assessing the environmental impacts of land use; What role for economic assessment?
How do governments choose from the range of instruments and policies available in the environmental planning and protection process? Martin Whitby and Neil Adger examine the physical evaluation methods of land use change and greenhouse gases, the tacit value of the environment within the agriculture and conservation policies of the UK and the techniques of economic environmental evaluation. They suggest that as the techniques and costs of collecting and interpreting environmental information improve, a more rational choice of environmental l policy should follow. Copyright © 1991 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Abstract.
Adger WN, Whitby MC (1991). Environmental assessment in forestry: the initial experience.
Journal of Rural Studies,
7(4), 385-395.
Abstract:
Environmental assessment in forestry: the initial experience
This study analyses the effectiveness of the European Community's Environmental Assessment Directive of 1985 in its application in the U.K. forestry sector. It assesses the applicability of the regulations in the provision of the public and private outputs of forestry. The environmental assessment regulation may contribute to the provision of the optimal amount of these public and private goods in theory, but it is concluded that, in common with initial results of the environmental assessment process in other sectors, the regulations do not make this contribution in practice in the forestry sector. The main deficiencies of the environmental statements examined were the failure to identify the significant potential impacts; to present alternative project sites and design features; and the erroneous measure of particular externalities. The environmental assessment process was also found to be unsatisfactory in the lack of public accessibility and consultation. The need for revision of the process in the forestry sector is highlighted. © 1991.
Abstract.
WHITBY M, ADGER N (1991). MEASURING ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT.
Author URL.
