Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present-day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi-dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer-term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C.

AbstractThe cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions.

<p>The last millennium was characterised by a cooling from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age. While strong volcanic eruptions could have triggered the onset of the Little Ice Age by reducing solar irradiance, modelling experiments suggest that it was amplified and maintained by sea ice-ocean feedbacks, including a potential abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre. The weakening of negative feedbacks that maintain a system in a stable state, prior to an abrupt transition, can be detected as an increase in temporal autocorrelation and variability. Here we use an annually-resolved and absolutely dated shell-derived record from the North Icelandic Shelf that spans the last millennium, to detect such a loss of resilience in the marine environment leading up to the Little Ice Age transition. We find a significant increase in autocorrelation and variance in bivalve growth increments and oxygen isotopes before the transition, providing evidence consistent with loss of stability in the marine environment. This supports the idea that internal feedbacks played an important role in the Little Ice Age onset.</p>

Abstract. The marine impacts of climate change on our societies
will be largely felt through coastal waters and shelf seas. These impacts
involve sectors as diverse as tourism, fisheries and energy production.
Projections of future marine climate change come from global models.
Modelling at the global scale is required to capture the feedbacks and
large-scale transport of physical properties such as heat, which occur
within the climate system, but global models currently cannot provide detail
in the shelf seas. Version 2 of the regional implementation of the Shelf Sea
Physics and Primary Production (S2P3-R v2.0) model bridges the gap between
global projections and local shelf-sea impacts. S2P3-R v2.0 is a highly
simplified coastal shelf model, computationally efficient enough to be run
across the shelf seas of the whole globe. Despite the simplified nature of
the model, it can display regional skill comparable to state-of-the-art
models, and at the scale of the global (excluding high latitudes) shelf seas it
can explain >50 % of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in
∼60 % of grid cells and >80 % of interannual
variability in ∼20 % of grid cells. The model can be run at
any resolution for which the input data can be supplied, without expert
technical knowledge, and using a modest off-the-shelf computer. The
accessibility of S2P3-R v2.0 places it within reach of an array of coastal
managers and policy makers, allowing it to be run routinely once set up and
evaluated for a region under expert guidance. The computational efficiency
and relative scientific simplicity of the tool make it ideally suited to
educational applications. S2P3-R v2.0 is set up to be driven directly with
output from reanalysis products or daily atmospheric output from climate
models such as those which contribute to the sixth phase of the Climate Model
Intercomparison Project, making it a valuable tool for semi-dynamical
downscaling of climate projections. The updates introduced into version 2.0
of this model are primarily focused around the ability to geographical
relocate the model, model usability and speed but also scientific
improvements. The value of this model comes from its computational
efficiency, which necessitates simplicity. This simplicity leads to several
limitations, which are discussed in the context of evaluation at regional
and global scales.
.

AbstractTropical coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change and will benefit from the more ambitious aims of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Paris Agreement, which proposed to limit global warming to 1.5° rather than 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Only in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change focussed assessment, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), have climate models been used to investigate the 1.5° warming scenario directly. Here, we combine the most recent model updates from CMIP6 with a semi‐dynamic downscaling to evaluate the difference between the 1.5 and 2°C global warming targets on coral thermal stress metrics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). By ~2080, severe bleaching events are expected to occur annually under intensifying emissions (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5‐8.5). Adherence to 2° warming (SSP1‐2.6) halves this frequency but the main benefit of confining warming to 1.5° (SSP1‐1.9) is that bleaching events are reduced further to 3 events per decade. Attaining low emissions of 1.5° is also paramount to prevent the mean magnitude of thermal stress from stabilizing close to a critical thermal threshold (8 Degree Heating Weeks). Thermal stress under the more pessimistic pathways SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 is three to fourfold higher than the present day, with grave implications for future reef ecosystem health. As global warming continues, our projections also indicate more regional warming in the central and southern GBR than the far north and northern GBR.

AbstractSize is a fundamental cellular trait that is important in determining phytoplankton physiological and ecological processes. Fossil coccospheres, the external calcite structure produced by the excretion of interlocking plates by the phytoplankton coccolithophores, can provide a rare window into cell size in the past. Coccospheres are delicate however and are therefore poorly preserved in sediment. We demonstrate a novel technique combining imaging flow cytometry and cross-polarised light (ISX+PL) to rapidly and reliably visually isolate and quantify the morphological characteristics of coccospheres from marine sediment by exploiting their unique optical and morphological properties. Imaging flow cytometry combines the morphological information provided by microscopy with high sample numbers associated with flow cytometry. High throughput imaging overcomes the constraints of labour-intensive manual microscopy and allows statistically robust analysis of morphological features and coccosphere concentration despite low coccosphere concentrations in sediments. Applying this technique to the fine-fraction of sediments, hundreds of coccospheres can be visually isolated quickly with minimal sample preparation. This approach has the potential to enable rapid processing of down-core sediment records and/or high spatial coverage from surface sediments and may prove valuable in investigating the interplay between climate change and coccolithophore physiological/ecological response.

AbstractThe climate varies due to human activity, natural climate cycles, and natural events external to the climate system. Understanding the different roles played by these drivers of variability is fundamental to predicting near-term climate change and changing extremes, and to attributing observed change to anthropogenic or natural factors. Natural drivers such as large explosive volcanic eruptions or multidecadal cycles in ocean circulation occur infrequently and are therefore poorly represented within the observational record. Here we turn to the first high-latitude annually-resolved and absolutely dated marine record spanning the last millennium, and the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phase 3 Last Millennium climate model ensemble spanning the same time period, to examine the influence of natural climate drivers on Arctic sea ice. We show that bivalve oxygen isotope data are recording multidecadal Arctic sea ice variability and through the climate model ensemble demonstrate that external natural drivers explain up to third of this variability. Natural external forcing causes changes in sea-ice mediated export of freshwater into areas of active deep convection, affecting the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and thereby northward heat transport to the Arctic. This in turn leads to sustained anomalies in sea ice extent. The models capture these positive feedbacks, giving us improved confidence in their ability to simulate future sea ice in in a rapidly evolving Arctic.

AbstractThe North Atlantic Ocean is a region of intense uptake of atmospheric CO2. To assess how this CO2 sink has evolved over recent decades, various approaches have been used to estimate basin‐wide uptake from the irregularly sampled in situ CO2 observations. Until now, the lack of robust uncertainties associated with observation‐based gap‐filling methods required to produce these estimates has limited the capacity to validate climate model simulated surface ocean CO2 concentrations. After robustly quantifying basin‐wide and annually varying interpolation uncertainties using both observational and model data, we show that the North Atlantic surface ocean fugacity of CO2 (fCO2−ocean) increased at a significantly slower rate than that simulated by the latest generation of Earth System Models during the period 1992–2014. We further show, with initialized model simulations, that the inability of these models to capture the observed trend in surface fCO2−ocean is primarily due to biases in the models' ocean biogeochemistry. Our results imply that current projections may underestimate the contribution of the North Atlantic to mitigating increasing future atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

AbstractThe lack of long‐term, highly resolved (annual to subannual) and absolutely dated baseline records of marine variability extending beyond the instrumental period (last ~50–100 years) hinders our ability to develop a comprehensive understanding of the role the ocean plays in the climate system. Specifically, without such records, it remains difficult to fully quantify the range of natural climate variability mediated by the ocean and to robustly attribute recent changes to anthropogenic or natural drivers. Here we present a 211 year (1799–2010 C.E.; all dates hereafter are Common Era) seawater temperature (SWT) reconstruction from the northeast Atlantic Ocean derived from absolutely dated, annually resolved, oxygen isotope ratios recorded in the shell carbonate (δ18Oshell) of the long‐lived marine bivalve mollusk Glycymeris glycymeris. The annual record was calibrated using subannually resolved δ18Oshell values drilled from multiple shells covering the instrumental period. Calibration verification statistics and spatial correlation analyses indicate that the δ18Oshell record contains significant skill at reconstructing Northeast Atlantic Ocean mean summer SWT variability associated with changes in subpolar gyre dynamics and the North Atlantic Current. Reconciling differences between the δ18Oshell data and corresponding growth increment width chronology demonstrates that 68% of the variability in G. glycymeris shell growth can be explained by the combined influence of biological productivity and SWT variability. These data suggest that G. glycymeris can provide seasonal to multicentennial absolutely dated baseline records of past marine variability that will lead to the development of a quantitative understanding of the role the marine environment plays in the global climate system.

© 2016 the Author(s). Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ 18 O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ 18 O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2, and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of nonseasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer-term flux variability.

The oceans currently take up around a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activity. While stored in the ocean, this CO2 is not influencing Earth's radiation budget; the ocean CO2 sink therefore plays an important role in mitigating global warming. CO2 uptake by the oceans is heterogeneous, with the subpolar North Atlantic being the strongest CO2 sink region. Observations over the last 2 decades have indicated that CO2 uptake by the subpolar North Atlantic sink can vary rapidly. Given the importance of this sink and its apparent variability, it is critical that we understand the mechanisms behind its operation. Here we explore the combined natural and anthropogenic subpolar North Atlantic CO2 uptake across a large ensemble of Earth System Model simulations, and find that models show a peak in sink strength around the middle of the century after which CO2 uptake begins to decline. We identify different drivers of change on interannual and multidecadal timescales. Short-term variability appears to be driven by fluctuations in regional seawater temperature and alkalinity, whereas the longer-term evolution throughout the coming century is largely occurring through a counterintuitive response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At high atmospheric CO2 concentrations the contrasting Revelle factors between the low latitude water and the subpolar gyre, combined with the transport of surface waters from the low latitudes to the subpolar gyre, means that the subpolar CO2 uptake capacity is largely satisfied from its southern boundary rather than through air-sea CO2 flux. Our findings indicate that: (i) we can explain the mechanisms of subpolar North Atlantic CO2 uptake variability across a broad range of Earth System Models; (ii) a focus on understanding the mechanisms behind contemporary variability may not directly tell us about how the sink will change in the future; (iii) to identify long-term change in the North Atlantic CO2 sink we should focus observational resources on monitoring lower latitude as well as the subpolar seawater CO2; (iv) recent observations of a weakening subpolar North Atlantic CO2 sink may suggest that the sink strength has peaked and is in long-term decline.

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

Addition and validation of an oxygen cycle to the ocean component of the FAMOUS climate model are described. At the surface, FAMOUS overestimates northern hemisphere oxygen concentrations whereas, at depth, the southern hemisphere values are too low. Surface validation is carried out with respect to HadGEM2-ES where, although good agreement is generally found, discrepancies are mainly attributed to disagreement in surface temperature structure between the models. The disagreement between the models at depth in the Southern Hemisphere is attributed to a combination of excessive surface productivity in FAMOUS' equatorial waters (and its concomitant effect on remineralisation at depth) and its reduced overturning circulation compared to HadGEM2-ES. For the Atlantic basin FAMOUS has a circulation strength of 12.7 ± 0.4 Sv compared to 15.0 ± 0.9 for HadGEM2-ES. Global- and basin-scale decomposition of meridional overturning circulation, oxygen concentration and apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU) - a measure of the departure from equilibrium with the atmosphere - allows specific features of the climatology to be assigned to particular basins. For example, the global signal in overestimation of low-latitude Northern Hemisphere oxygen at intermediate depths is attributed to the Pacific. In addition, the inclusion of the AOU analysis enables explanation of oxygen-deficient deep water in the Southern Hemisphere which is not seen in the Northern Hemisphere. © 2014 Author(s).

Ecosystem management frequently aims to manage resilience yet measuring resilience has proven difficult. Here, we quantify the ecological resilience of the largest reef in the Caribbean and map potential benefits of marine reserves under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Resilience is calculated using spatial ecological models and defined as the probability of a reef remaining in its coral-dominated basin of attraction such that it does not flip into an alternate, algal-dominated attractor. In practice, resilience is the probability that coral populations will maintain the ability to exhibit a recovery trend after acute disturbances such as hurricanes. The inputs required to estimate resilience are a reef's initial state, physical environment, and disturbance regime. One major driver of reef resilience is herbivory by parrotfish and recent action to protect parrotfish in Belize was found to have increased resilience 6-fold. However, the expected benefits of parrotfish protection to future coral cover were relatively modest with only a 2- to 2.6-fold improvement over a business-as-usual scenario, demonstrating how resilience and ecosystem states are decoupled. Global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had little impact on average coral state unless it was accompanied by local controls of fishing. However, combined global and local action reduced the rate of reef degradation threefold. Operationalizing resilience explicitly integrates available biophysical data and accommodates the complex interactions among ecological processes and multiple types of disturbance. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (

Coral reefs face multiple anthropogenic threats, from pollution and overfishing to the dual effects of greenhouse gas emissions: rising sea temperature and ocean acidification. While the abundance of coral has declined in recent decades, the implications for humanity are difficult to quantify because they depend on ecosystem function rather than the corals themselves. Most reef functions and ecosystem services are founded on the ability of reefs to maintain their three-dimensional structure through net carbonate accumulation. Coral growth only constitutes part of a reef's carbonate budget; bioerosion processes are influential in determining the balance between net structural growth and disintegration. Here, we combine ecological models with carbonate budgets and drive the dynamics of Caribbean reefs with the latest generation of climate models. Budget reconstructions using documented ecological perturbations drive shallow (6-10 m) Caribbean forereefs toward an increasingly fragile carbonate balance. We then projected carbonate budgets toward 2080 and contrasted the benefits of local conservation and global action on climate change. Local management of fisheries (specifically, no-take marine reserves) and the watershed can delay reef loss by at least a decade under "business-as-usual" rises in greenhouse gas emissions. However, local action must be combined with a low-carbon economy to prevent degradation of reef structures and associated ecosystem services.

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. © 2013 Mora et al.

Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO3) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO3, and sea ice coverage over 1900-2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic-integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998-2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080-2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss-driven increase in PP is in most models NO3-limited. The Arctic surface NO3 is decreasing over the 21st century (-2.3 ± 1 mmol/m3), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO3 in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO3 limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin-up simulations. This initial NO3 spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset - which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO3 in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Mechanisms of sustained multidecadal changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are investigated in a set of simulations with a new state-of-the-art Earth system model. Anthropogenic aerosols have previously been highlighted as a potential mitigator of AMOC weakening. In this study, we explain the oceanic mechanisms behind how anthropogenic aerosols force a strengthening of the AMOC by up to 20% in our state-of-the-art Earth system model. This strengthening is driven via atmospheric circulation changes which subsequently modulate the salinity budget of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Gradual salinification occurs via increased evaporation and decreased fluxes of ice through the Fram Straits. A component of the salinification is a positive feedback from the AMOC bringing more saline water northwards from the subtropical Atlantic. Salinification of the subpolar gyre results in increased deep convection and a strengthening of the AMOC. Following a reduction in aerosol concentrations, the AMOC rapidly weakens, approximately 3 times faster than in the case where anthropogenic aerosol concentrations had never been increased. Similarities and differences with available observational records and long term reanalysis products are also discussed. Key Points Aerosols force a long term AMOC strengthening in HadGEM2-ES of ~3Sv This occurs via atmospheric circulation modulating the NA freshwater budget Independent ocean models and atmospheric analyses provide qualitative support ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) C,-0.33 (±0.003) pH unit,-3.45 (±0.44)% and-8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) C,-0.07 (±0.001) pH unit,-1.81 (±0.31)% and-2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models. © 2013 Author(s).

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

The amplitude, phase, and form of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations varies on many time and space scales (Peters et al. 2007). Intra-annual CO2 variation is primarily driven by seasonal uptake and release of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (Machta et al. 1977; Buchwitz et al. 2007), with a small (Cadule et al. 2010; Heimann et al. 1998), but potentially changing (Gorgues et al. 2010) contribution from the ocean. Variability in the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal drivers of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) will be induced by, amongst other factors, anthropogenic CO2 release (Keeling et al. 1996), land-use change (Zimov et al. 1999) and planetary orbital variability, and will lead to changes in CO2atm seasonality. Despite CO2atm seasonality being a dynamic and prominent feature of the Earth System, its potential to drive changes in the air-sea flux of CO2 has not previously (to the best of my knowledge) been explored. It is important that we investigate the impact of CO2atm seasonality change, and the potential for carbon-cycle feedbacks to operate through the modification of the CO2atm seasonal cycle, because the decision had been made to prescribe CO2atm concentrations (rather than emissions) within model simulations for the fifth IPCC climate assessment (Taylor et al. 2009). In this study I undertake ocean-model simulations within which different magnitude CO2atm seasonal cycles are prescribed. These simulations allow me to examine the effect of a change in CO2atm seasonal cycle magnitude on the air-sea CO2 flux. I then use an off-line model to isolate the drivers of the identified air-sea CO2 flux change, and propose mechanisms by which this change may come about. Three mechanisms are identified by which co-variability of the seasonal cycles in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and seasonality in sea-ice extent, wind-speed and ocean temperature, could potentially lead to changes in the air-sea flux of CO2 at mid-to-high latitudes. The sea-ice driven mechanism responds to an increase in CO2atm seasonality by pumping CO 2 into the ocean, the wind-speed and solubility-driven mechanisms, by releasing CO2 from the ocean (in a relative sense). The relative importance of the mechanisms will be determined by, amongst other variables, the seasonal extent of sea-ice. To capture the described feedbacks within earth system models, CO2atm concentrations must be allowed to evolve freely, forced only by anthropogenic emissions rather than prescribed CO2atm concentrations; however, time-integrated ocean simulations imply that the cumulative net air-sea flux could be at most equivalent to a few ppm CO2atm. The findings presented here suggest that, at least under pre-industrial conditions, the prescription of CO2atm concentrations rather than emissions within simulations will have little impact on the marine anthropogenic CO2 sink. © 2012 Author(s). CC Attribution 3.0 License.

We use the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model to examine the degree of reversibility of a wide range of components of the Earth System under idealized climate change scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is gradually increased to four times the pre-industrial level and then reduced at a similar rate from several points along this trajectory. While some modelled quantities respond almost immediately to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, others exhibit a time lag relative to the change in CO 2. Most quantities also exhibit a lag relative to the global-mean surface temperature change, which can be described as a hysteresis behaviour. The most surprising responses are from low-level clouds and ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean, which both exhibit hysteresis on timescales longer than expected. We see no evidence of critical thresholds in these simulations, although some of the hysteresis phenomena become more apparent above 2×CO2 or 3×CO2. Our findings have implications for the parametrization of climate impacts in integrated assessment and simple climate models and for future climate studies of geoengineering scenarios. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd.

In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies. © 2011 Author(s).

Accurate constraints on past ocean temperatures and compositions are critical for documenting climate change and resolving its causes. Most proxies for temperature are not thermodynamically based, appear to be subject to biological processes, require regional calibrations, and/or are influenced by fluid composition. As a result, their interpretation becomes uncertain when they are applied in settings not necessarily resembling those in which they were empirically calibrated. Independent proxies for past temperature could provide an important means of testing and/or expanding on existing reconstructions. Here we report measurements of abundances of stable isotopologues of calcitic and aragonitic benthic and planktic foraminifera and coccoliths, relate those abundances to independently estimated growth temperatures, and discuss the possible scope of equilibrium and kinetic isotope effects. The proportions of 13C-18O bonds in these samples exhibits a temperature dependence that is generally similar to that previously been reported for inorganic calcite and other biologically precipitated carbonate-containing minerals (apatite from fish, reptile, and mammal teeth; calcitic brachiopods and molluscs; aragonitic coral and mollusks). Most species that exhibit non-equilibrium 18O/16O (δ18O) and 13C/12C (δ13C) ratios are characterized by 13C-18O bond abundances that are similar to inorganic calcite and are generally indistinguishable from apparent equilibrium, with possible exceptions among benthic foraminiferal samples from the Arctic Ocean where temperatures are near-freezing. Observed isotope ratios in biogenic carbonates can be explained if carbonate minerals generally preserve a state of ordering that reflects the extent of isotopic equilibration of the dissolved inorganic carbon species. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed. © 2010 Author(s).

Trace element analysis of open-marine sedimentary carbonates provides a wealth of paleoclimate data. At present, the majority of this data is obtained from foraminifera tests. Complications regarding the variability of conditions experienced by foraminifera throughout test formation and the influence of diagenetic processes on sample chemistry limit the value of foraminifera samples in certain situations. Coccoliths, the calcium carbonate plates produced by coccolithophores, represent a second major pelagic open-marine carbonate source with the potential to provide a wide range of valuable trace element proxy data but which have, until now, been unavailable for analysis of many trace elements because of clay contamination. Here we describe a novel technique, which utilizes fast sorting flow cytometry, to enable the production of clay-free sedimentary coccolith samples. © 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Major questions surround the species-specific nature of coccolithophore calcification in response to rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present CaCO3 particle volume distribution data from the coccolith size-fraction of a rapidly accumulating North Atlantic sediment core. Without direct volume measurements on coccoliths produced by individual coccolithophore species, and knowledge of organic, as well as inorganic carbon production, it is not possible to state conclusively the coccolithophore calcification change at this site. However, by analysing the size distribution of CaCO3 particles in the less than 10.

Ocean acidification in response to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures is widely expected to reduce calcification by marine organisms. From the mid-Mesozoic, coccolithophores have been major calcium carbonate producers in the world's oceans, today accounting for about a third of the total marine CaCO3 production. Here, we present laboratory evidence that calcification and net primary production in the coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi are significantly increased by high CO2 partial pressures. Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40% increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures, which has important implications for biogeochemical modeling of future oceans and climate.

Recently reported increasing calcification rates and primary productivity in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were obtained by equilibrating seawater with mixtures of carbon dioxide in air. The noted discrepancy with previously reported decreasing calcification is likely due to the previously less realistic simulation of bicarbonate due to addition of acid or base to obtain simulated future CO2 partial pressure conditions.

The role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in greenhouse warming and climate change remains controversial. During the warmth of the early-mid Pliocene, we find evidence for enhanced thermocline tilt and cold upwelling in the equatorial Pacific, consistent with the prevalence of a La Niña-like state, rather than the proposed persistent warm El Niño-like conditions. Our Pliocene paleothermometer supports the idea of a dynamic "ocean thermostat" in which heating of the tropical Pacific leads to a cooling of the east equatorial Pacific and a La Niña-like state, analogous to observations of a transient increasing east-west sea surface temperature gradient in the 20th-century tropical Pacific.