<p>Permafrost peatlands are found in high-latitude regions and store globally-important amounts of soil organic carbon. These regions are warming at over twice the global average rate, causing permafrost thaw and exposing previously inert carbon to decomposition and emission to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases. However, it is unclear how peatland hydrological behaviour, vegetation structure and carbon balance, and the linkages between them, will respond to permafrost thaw in a warming climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands follow divergent ecohydrological trajectories in response to recent climate change within the same rapidly warming region (northern Sweden). Whether a site becomes wetter or drier depends on local factors and the autogenic response of individual peatlands. We find that bryophyte-dominated vegetation demonstrates resistance, and in some cases resilience, to climatic and hydrological shifts. Drying at four sites is clearly associated with reduced carbon sequestration, while no clear relationship at wetting sites is observed. We highlight the complex dynamics of permafrost peatlands and warn against an overly-simple approach when considering their ecohydrological trajectories and role as C sinks under a warming climate.   </p>

High-latitude peatlands are changing rapidly in response to climate change, including permafrost thaw. Here, we reconstruct hydrological conditions since the seventeenth century using testate amoeba data from 103 high-latitude peat archives. We show that 54% of the peatlands have been drying and 32% have been wetting over this period, illustrating the complex ecohydrological dynamics of high latitude peatlands and their highly uncertain responses to a warming climate.

Abstract
. Permafrost peatlands are found in high-latitude regions and store globally-important amounts of soil organic carbon. These regions are warming at over twice the global average rate, causing permafrost thaw, and exposing previously inert carbon to decomposition and emission to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases. However, it is unclear how peatland hydrological behaviour, vegetation structure and carbon balance, and the linkages between them, will respond to permafrost thaw in a warming climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands follow divergent ecohydrological trajectories in response to recent climate change within the same rapidly warming region (northern Sweden). Whether a site becomes wetter or drier depends on local factors and the autogenic response of individual peatlands. We find that bryophyte-dominated vegetation demonstrates resistance, and in some cases resilience, to climatic and hydrological shifts. Drying at four sites is clearly associated with reduced carbon sequestration, while no clear relationship at wetting sites is observed. We highlight the complex dynamics of permafrost peatlands and warn against an overly-simple approach when considering their ecohydrological trajectories and role as C sinks under a warming climate.

Peatlands are valuable archives of information about past environmental conditions and represent a globally-important carbon store. Robust proxy methods are required to reconstruct past ecohydrological dynamics in high-latitude peatlands to improve our understanding of change in these carbon-rich ecosystems. The High Arctic peatlands in Svalbard are at the northern limit of current peatland distribution and have experienced rapidly rising temperatures of 0.81 °C per decade since 1958. We examine the ecology of peatland testate amoebae in surface vegetation samples from permafrost peatlands on Spitsbergen, the largest island of the Svalbard archipelago, and develop new transfer functions to reconstruct water-table depth (WTD) and pH that can be applied to understand past peatland ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change. These transfer functions are the first of their kind for peatlands in Svalbard and the northernmost developed to date. Multivariate statistical analysis shows that WTD and pore water pH are the dominant controls on testate amoeba species distribution. This finding is consistent with results from peatlands in lower latitudes with regard to WTD and supports work showing that when samples are taken across a long enough trophic gradient, peatland trophic status is an important control on the distribution of testate amoebae. No differences were found between transfer functions including and excluding the taxa with weak idiosomic tests (WISTs) that are most susceptible to decay. The final models for application to fossil samples therefore excluded these taxa. The WTD transfer function demonstrates the best performance (R2LOO = 0.719, RMSEPLOO = 3.2 cm), but the pH transfer function also performs well (R2LOO = 0.690, RMSEPLOO = 0.320). The transfer functions were applied to a core from western Spitsbergen and suggest drying conditions ~1750 CE, followed by a trend of recent wetting and increasing pH from ~1920 CE. These new transfer functions allow the reconstruction of past peatland WTD and pH in Svalbard, thereby enabling a greater understanding of long-term ecohydrological dynamics in these rapidly changing ecosystems.