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Dr Jean-Francois Mercure

Dr Jean-Francois Mercure

Associate Professor in Climate Change Policy

 Laver Building 801d


Laver Building, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK


Senior Climate Economist
Vice Presidency for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, World Bank, Washington DC

Associate Professor in Climate Policy
Global Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter

Research Fellow
Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), 
Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge;


Assistant Professor in Energy, Climate and Innovation
Radboud University, Nijmegen,
The Netherlands (2016-2018)

Deputy Director (Senior Research Associate)
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, UK (2013-2015)

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Research interests

I am currently seconded to the World Bank on a 4 year term. I am in charge of developing new generation energy, innovation and macroeconomic models for the economic analysis of climate change and climate policy at the World Bank. I plan to fully return to my academic position in Exeter in 2026, but remain highly engaged with the Global Systems Institute. 

I am an innovation scholar, macroeconomist and complexity scientist. My research is on modelling innovation, the macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon innovation and technological change policy, the diffusion of innovations, and modelling the global energy-economy-environment system. However, I also research climate policy and environmental governance from a social science viewpoint. I contributed substantially to the design of the integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE, which is used notably for policy analysis at the European Commission and various other governments and stakeholders. I recently led a study on the macroeconomic impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets that attracted substantial attention in British media and beyond. I also contributed work on the role of science and models in the policy cycle for low-carbon innovation.

My theoretical focus stems from the application of complexity theory in innovation systems and macroeconomics. The energy-economy-environment system is a complex system that features many feedback interactions that are not fully understood, and this problem becomes even more difficult given that understanding it requires scientists competent in many fields simultaneously (earth system science, macroeconomics, energy systems, finance, sociology, innovation, business, law, dynamical systems...). It is also a 'wicked problem', in that its resolution evolves at the same pace at which we can study it, and each policy intervention changes the problem itself. I often play the role of bridging between disciplines, and interact with policy-makers through the science-policy interface. I additionally bring in my own knowledge of innovation systems, complexity science and macroeconomics.

Research projects

Research projects I lead or participate to include: 

EEIST: I developed and was coordinator of the £4.8M 3 year EEIST project funded by the UK's department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF), with 16 institutions worldwide, on and developing dynamical models to informing climate policy with governments in India, China, Brazil, the UK and the EU. This involves iterative exchange between scientists/economists and policy-makers. Since moving to the World Bank I became strategic advisor to the project.

FRANTIC: a £230k NERC grant to study the impacts on the UK's financial sector of low carbon policy and stranded fossil fuel assets, in collaboration with the Open University, Cambridge University, SOAS and Cambridge Econometrics.

The BRIDGE project: a £600k ESRC grant to study the energy-water-food nexus in Brazil.

NAVIGATE: I am partner in a €8M consortium to improve state-of-the-art integrated assessment models used to study global socio-economic pathways including low-carbon pathways.

I also carry out consultancy work for the European Commission. 

I work in close collaboration with partners at Cambridge University, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University and SOAS. 

Research grants

  • 2015 ESRC
    ESRC-funded project to study the Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Brazil, in collaboration with Cambridge, the Open University, Exeter and Cambridge Econometrics.

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Journal articles

Mercure J (In Press). Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use. Climate Policy Abstract.
Barbrook-Johnson P, Mercure JF, Sharpe S, Peñasco C, Hepburn C, Anadon LD, Farmer JD, Lenton TM (2024). Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers. Nature Energy, 9(3), 229-231. Abstract.
Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Barker T, Salas P, Scrieciu S (2024). The role of the IPCC in assessing actionable evidence for climate policymaking. npj Climate Action, 3(1). Abstract.
Merkle M, Dellaccio O, Dunford R, Harmáčková ZV, Harrison PA, Mercure J-F, Pedde S, Seo B, Simsek Y, Stenning J, et al (2023). Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways. Climate Risk Management, 40, 100506-100506.
Qin J, Lynch C, Barbrook-Johnson P, Salas P, Yang G, Ferreira Cardia Haddad M, Nijsse F, Pasqualino R, Mercure J-F (2023). How are climate policies assessed in emerging economies? a study of ex-ante policy appraisal in Brazil, China, and India. Climate Policy, 1-17.
Nijsse FJMM, Mercure J-F, Ameli N, Larosa F, Kothari S, Rickman J, Vercoulen P, Pollitt H (2023). The momentum of the solar energy transition. Nat Commun, 14(1). Abstract.  Author URL.
Eufrasio RM, Kantzas EP, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Koh SCL, Beerling DJ (2022). Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO2 removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1). Abstract.
Ball-Burack A, Salas P, Mercure J-F (2022). Great power, great responsibility: Assessing power sector policy for the UK’s net zero target. Energy Policy, 168, 113167-113167.
Semieniuk G, Holden PB, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Pollitt H, Jobson K, Vercoulen P, Chewpreecha U, Edwards NR, Viñuales JE, et al (2022). Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies. Nature Climate Change, 12(6), 532-538.
Keppo I, Butnar I, Bauer N, Caspani M, Edelenbosch O, Emmerling J, Fragkos P, Guivarch C, Harmsen M, Lefevre J, et al (2021). Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 16(5).  Author URL.
Knobloch F, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Lewney R, Huijbregts MAJ, Mercure JF (2021). FTT:Heat — a simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector. Energy Policy, 153 Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Salas P, Vercoulen P, Semieniuk G, Lam A, Pollitt H, Holden PB, Vakilifard N, Chewpreecha U, Edwards NR, et al (2021). Reframing incentives for climate policy action. Nature Energy, 6(12), 1133-1143.
Mercure J-F, Bravo PS, Vercoulen P, Semieniuk G, Lam A, Pollitt H, Holden P, Vakilifard N, Chewpreecha U, Edwards N, et al (2021). Reframing the climate policy game. Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Sharpe S, Vinuales JE, Ives M, Grubb M, Lam A, Drummond P, Pollitt H, Knobloch F, Nijsse FJMM, et al (2021). Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal. Global Environmental Change, 70, 102359-102359.
Mercure J-F, Chester D, Lynch C, Jarvis S, Jarvis A (2021). Stranded human and produced capital in a net-zero transition. Abstract.
Lam A, Mercure J-F (2021). Which policy mixes are best for decarbonising passenger cars? Simulating interactions among taxes, subsidies and regulations for the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, China, and India. Energy Research and Social Science
Semieniuk G, Campiglio E, Mercure J, Volz U, Edwards NR (2020). Low‐carbon transition risks for finance. WIREs Climate Change, 12(1). Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Knobloch F, Hanssen S, Lam A, Pollitt H, Salas P, Chewpreecha U, Huijbregts M (2020). Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time. Nature Sustainability, 3, 437-447.
Viñuales JE, Mercure JF (2020). Pathway to Reframing Environmental Law. Environmental Policy and Law, 50(6), 509-517. Abstract.
Beerling DJ, Kantzas EP, Lomas MR, Wade P, Eufrasio RM, Renforth P, Sarkar B, Andrews MG, James RH, Pearce CR, et al (2020). Potential for large-scale CO<inf>2</inf> removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands. Nature, 583(7815), 242-248. Abstract.
Hu X, Pollitt H, Pirie J, Mercure JF, Liu J, Meng J, Tao S (2020). The impacts of the trade liberalization of environmental goods on power system and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions. Energy Policy, 140 Abstract.
Lehmann P, Sijm J, Gawel E, Strunz S, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF, Pollitt H (2019). Addressing multiple externalities from electricity generation: a case for EU renewable energy policy beyond 2020?. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 21(2), 255-283. Abstract.
Paim MA, Dalmarco AR, Yang CH, Salas P, Lindner S, Mercure JF, de Andrade Guerra JBSO, Derani C, Bruce da Silva T, Viñuales JE, et al (2019). Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix. Energy Policy, 128, 393-401. Abstract.
Paim M-A, Salas P, Lindner S, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Edwards NR, Viñuales JE (2019). Mainstreaming the Water-Energy-Food Nexus through nationally determined contributions (NDCs): the case of Brazil. Climate Policy, 20(2), 163-178.
Knobloch F, Huijbregts MAJ, Mercure JF (2019). Modelling the effectiveness of climate policies: How important is loss aversion by consumers?. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 116 Abstract.
Mercure JF, Paim MA, Bocquillon P, Lindner S, Salas P, Martinelli P, Berchin II, de Andrade Guerra JBSO, Derani C, de Albuquerque Junior CL, et al (2019). System complexity and policy integration challenges: the Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 105, 230-243. Abstract.
Mercure J-F (2019). Toward Risk-Opportunity Assessment in Climate-Friendly Finance. One Earth, 1(4), 395-398.
Holden PB, Edwards NR, Ridgwell A, Wilkinson RD, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Lam A, et al (2018). Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement (vol 8, pg 609, 2018). NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 8(10), 921-921.  Author URL.
Holden PB, Edwards NR, Ridgwell A, Wilkinson RD, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Lam A, et al (2018). Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 8(7), 609-613.
Brouwer F, Avgerinopoulos G, Fazekas D, Laspidou C, Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Ramos EP, Howells M (2018). Energy modelling and the Nexus concept. Energy Strategy Reviews, 19, 1-6. Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Lam A, Knobloch F, Vinuales JE (2018). Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS, 20, 195-208.  Author URL.
Mercure J-F (2018). Fashion, fads and the popularity of choices: Micro-foundations for diffusion consumer theory. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 46, 194-207.
Mercure J-F, Lam A, Billington S, Pollitt H (2018). Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 <SUP>°</SUP>C. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 151(2), 109-129.  Author URL.
Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Viñuales JE, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Sognnaes I, Lam A, Knobloch F, et al (2018). Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets. Nature Climate Change, 8(7), 588-593.
Lam A, Lee S, Mercure JF, Cho Y, Lin CH, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Billington S (2018). Policies and predictions for a low-carbon transition by 2050 in passenger vehicles in East Asia: Based on an analysis using the E3ME-FTT model. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(5). Abstract.
Knobloch F, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Daioglou V, Mercure J-F (2018). Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Energy Efficiency, 12(2), 521-550.
Pollitt H, Mercure JF (2018). The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used for assessing climate and energy policy. Climate Policy, 18(2), 184-197. Abstract.
Vosper SJ, Mercure JF (2016). Assessing the effectiveness of South Africa's emissions-based purchase tax for private passenger vehicles: a consumer choice modelling approach. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 27(4), 25-37. Abstract.
Foley AM, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U (2016). Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector. Earth System Dynamics, 7(1), 119-132. Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Bassi AM, Vinuales JE, Edwards NR (2016). Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 37, 102-115.  Author URL.
Knobloch F, Mercure JF (2016). The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 21, 39-55. Abstract.
Mercure J-F (2015). An age structured demographic theory of technological change. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 25(4), 787-820.
Barker T, Alexandri E, Mercure J-F, Ogawa Y, Pollitt H (2015). GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap. Climate Policy, 16(4), 393-414.
Mercure J-F, Lam A (2015). The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies. Environmental Research Letters, 10(6), 064008-064008.
Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Foley AM, Holden PB, Edwards NR (2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector. Energy Policy, 73, 686-700. Abstract.
Allan MP, Tamai A, Rozbicki E, Fischer MH, Voss J, King PDC, Meevasana W, Thirupathaiah S, Rienks E, Fink J, et al (2013). Formation of heavy d-electron quasiparticles in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru <inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>. New Journal of Physics, 15 Abstract.
Mercure JF, Salas P (2013). On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities. Energy Policy, 63, 469-483. Abstract.
Mercure JF, Salas P (2012). An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials. Energy, 46(1), 322-336. Abstract.
Mercure JF (2012). FTT:Power a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion. Energy Policy, 48, 799-811. Abstract.
Mercure JF, Bangura AF, Xu X, Wakeham N, Carrington A, Walmsley P, Greenblatt M, Hussey NE (2012). Upper critical magnetic field far above the paramagnetic pair-breaking limit of superconducting one-dimensional Li <inf>0.9</inf>Mo <inf>6</inf>O <inf>17</inf> single crystals. Physical Review Letters, 108(18). Abstract.
Wakeham N, Bangura AF, Xu X, Mercure JF, Greenblatt M, Hussey NE (2011). Gross violation of the Wiedemann-Franz law in a quasi-one-dimensional conductor. Nature Communications, 2(1). Abstract.
Rost AW, Berridge AM, Perry RS, Mercure JF, Grigera SA, Mackenzie AP (2010). Power law specific heat divergence in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>. Physica Status Solidi (B) Basic Research, 247(3), 513-515. Abstract.
Mercure J-F, Rost AW, O'Farrell ECT, Goh SK, Perry RS, Sutherland ML, Grigera SA, Borzi RA, Gegenwart P, Gibbs AS, et al (2010). Quantum oscillations near the metamagnetic transition in Sr<sub>3</sub>Ru<sub>2</sub>O<sub>7</sub>. PHYSICAL REVIEW B, 81(23).  Author URL.
Mercure J-F (2010). The de Haas van Alphen effect near a quantum critical end point in. Sr_3Ru_2O_7. Abstract.  Author URL.
Rost AW, Perry RS, Mercure JF, Mackenzie AP, Grigera SA (2009). Entropy landscape of phase formation associated with quantum criticality in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>. Science, 325(5946), 1360-1363. Abstract.
Mercure JF, Goh SK, O'Farrell ECT, Perry RS, Sutherland ML, Rost AW, Grigera SA, Borzi RA, Gegenwart P, MacKenzie AP, et al (2009). Quantum oscillations in the anomalous phase in Sr3Ru2O7. Physical Review Letters, 103(17). Abstract.
Farrell J, Perry RS, Rost A, Mercure JF, Kikugawa N, Grigera SA, Mackenzie AP (2008). Effect of electron doping the metamagnet Sr3-y Lay Ru2 O7. Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics, 78(18). Abstract.
Tamai A, Allan MP, Mercure JF, Meevasana W, Dunkel R, Lu DH, Perry RS, MacKenzie AP, Singh DJ, Shen ZX, et al (2008). Fermi Surface and van Hove Singularities in the Itinerant Metamagnet Sr3Ru2O7. Physical Review Letters, 101(2). Abstract.
Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Mercure JF, Bouilly D, Chicoine M, Bentoumi G, Leonelli R, Wang YQ, Schiettekatte F (2007). Damage evolution in low-energy ion implanted silicon. Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics, 75(7). Abstract.
Perry RS, Baumberger F, Balicas L, Kikugawa N, Ingle NJC, Rost A, Mercure JF, Maeno Y, Shen ZX, Mackenzie AP, et al (2006). Sr<inf>2</inf>RhO<inf>4</inf>: a new, clean correlated electron metal. New Journal of Physics, 8 Abstract.
Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Anahory Y, Schiettekatte F (2005). Concentration and ion-energy-independent annealing kinetics during ion-implanted-defect annealing. Applied Physics Letters, 86(3), 1-3. Abstract.
Mercure JF, Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Roorda S, Schiettekatte F (2005). Dependence of the structural relaxation of amorphous silicon on implantation temperature. Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics, 71(13). Abstract.
Zikovsky J, MacQueen L, Yelon A, Sacher E, Mercure JF, Karmouch R (2005). Nanocalorimetric investigation of light-induced metastable defects in hydrogenated amorphous silicon. Journal of Non-Crystalline Solids, 351(46-48), 3630-3633. Abstract.


Smith A, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF, Pollitt H (2019). EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: is a single target for GHG reduction sufficient?. In  (Ed) The European Dimension of Germany's Energy Transition: Opportunities and Conflicts, 27-43. Abstract.
Pollitt H, Mercure JF (2019). Financing the low-carbon transition. In  (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 217-227.
Knobloch F, Chewpreecha U, Kim S, He Y, Chen LC, Lam A, Mercure JF, Lee S (2019). Policies to decarbonize household heating systems in east asia. In  (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 176-200.
Lam A, Lee S, Cho Y, Lin CH, Knobloch F, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF (2019). Policies to decarbonize passenger vehicles in east asia. In  (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 138-175.
Vercoulen P, Lee S, Suk S, He Y, Fujikawa K, Mercure JF (2019). Policies to decarbonize the steel industry in east asia. In  (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 110-137.
Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Lee S, Lee TY, Mercure JF (2019). Policy mixes to meet CO2 emission reduction targets in all sectors of the economy in east asia. In  (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 99-109.
Ogawa Y, Mercure JF, Lee S, Pollitt H (2015). Modeling the power sectors in East Asia: the choice of power sources. In  (Ed) Low-carbon, Sustainable Future in East Asia: Improving Energy Systems, Taxation and Policy Cooperation, 45-62.
Mercure JF, Salas P (2014). Feasibility of decarbonisation from a technology perspective. In  (Ed) Decarbonising the World's Economy: Assessing the Feasibility of Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 151-222.


Kittaka S, Yonezawa S, Yaguchi H, Maeno Y, Fittipaldi R, Vecchione A, Mercure JF, Gibbs A, Perry RS, MacKenzie AP, et al (2009). Evidence for the Sr<inf>2</inf>RuO<inf>4</inf> intercalations in the Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf> region of the Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru <inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf> - Sr<inf>2</inf>RuO<inf>4</inf> eutectic system. Abstract.
Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Anahory Y, Schiettekatte F (2005). Damage annealing process in implanted poly-silicon studied by nanocalorimetry: Effects of heating rate and beam flux. Abstract.
Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Schiettekatte F (2005). Nanocalorimeter fabrication procedure and data analysis for investigations on implantation damage annealing. Abstract.
Mercure JF, Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Roorda S, Schiettekatte F (2003). Radiation damage in silicon studied in situ by nanocalorimetry. Abstract.


Mercure J (2016). Policy-induced energy technological innovation and finance for low-carbon economic growth. European Commission.

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I created the GEOM144 module about environmental governance, the policy cycle, the science-policy interface, innovation policy, energy modelling, energy and climate change, as part of the MSc on Global Sustainability Solutions. Since moving to the World Bank I handed this module over to Sally Rangecroft.



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