The rate and consequences of future high latitude ice sheet retreat remain a major concern given ongoing anthropogenic warming. Here, new precisely dated stalagmite data from NW Iberia provide the first direct, high-resolution records of periods of rapid melting of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the penultimate deglaciation. These records reveal the penultimate deglaciation initiated with rapid century-scale meltwater pulses which subsequently trigger abrupt coolings of air temperature in NW Iberia consistent with freshwater-induced AMOC slowdowns. The first of these AMOC slowdowns, 600-year duration, was shorter than Heinrich 1 of the last deglaciation. Although similar insolation forcing initiated the last two deglaciations, the more rapid and sustained rate of freshening in the eastern North Atlantic penultimate deglaciation likely reflects a larger volume of ice stored in the marine-based Eurasian Ice sheet during the penultimate glacial in contrast to the land-based ice sheet on North America as during the last glacial.

Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40-60 m estimated from far-field records1-3 are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth2. This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene4,5. Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72-17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution.

Abstract. Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside
widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic
margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in
sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not
included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this
phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that
records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of
Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We
provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment
transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution
ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the
mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of
increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest
that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface
waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting.
Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be
important for future projections of Antarctic changes.
.

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.

AbstractThe Miocene epoch (23.03–5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today. Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, and many flora and fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist today. Miocene climate was dynamic: long periods of early and late glaciation bracketed a ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval—the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation,pCO2, and ocean and atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures and moderately higherpCO2(∼400–600 ppm), the MCO has been suggested as a particularly appropriate analog for future climate scenarios, and for assessing the predictive accuracy of numerical climate models—the same models that are used to simulate future climate. Yet, Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re‐interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model‐data discrepancy. Our understanding of Miocene climatic, biogeochemical, and oceanic changes on broad spatial and temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting the physical, chemical, and biotic aspects of the Earth system are emerging, and together provide a more comprehensive understanding of this important time interval. Here, we review the state‐of‐the‐art in Miocene climate, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, ice sheet dynamics, and biotic adaptation research as inferred through proxy observations and modeling studies.

AbstractIce sheet behavior is strongly influenced by the bed topography. However, the effect of the progressive temporal evolution of Antarctica's subglacial landscape on the sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climatic and oceanic change has yet to be fully quantified. Here we investigate the evolving sensitivity of the AIS using a series of data‐constrained reconstructions of Antarctic paleotopography since glacial inception at the Eocene‐Oligocene transition. We use a numerical ice sheet model to subject the AIS to schematic climate and ocean warming experiments and find that bed topographic evolution causes a doubling in ice volume loss and equivalent global sea level rise. Glacial erosion is primarily responsible for enhanced ice sheet retreat via the development of increasingly low‐lying and reverse sloping beds over time, particularly within near‐coastal subglacial basins. We conclude that AIS sensitivity to climate and ocean forcing has been substantially amplified by long‐term landscape evolution.

ABSTRACTPalaeo‐ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo‐ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model‐based approaches. To achieve this goal, model‐data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice‐flow direction and flow‐switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice‐free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo‐ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.

AbstractEast Antarctica hosts large subglacial basins into which the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) likely retreated during past warmer climates. However, the extent of retreat remains poorly constrained, making quantifying past and predicted future contributions to global sea level rise from these marine basins challenging. Geomorphological analysis and flexural modeling within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are used to reconstruct the ice margin during warm intervals of the Oligocene‐Miocene. Flat‐lying bedrock plateaus are indicative of an ice sheet margin positioned >400–500 km inland of the modern grounding zone for extended periods of the Oligocene‐Miocene, equivalent to a 2‐m rise in global sea level. Our findings imply that if major EAIS retreat occurs in the future, isostatic rebound will enable the plateau surfaces to act as seeding points for extensive ice rises, thus limiting extensive ice margin retreat of the scale seen during the early EAIS.

AbstractRecently obtained geophysical data show sets of parallel erosional features on the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Basin, indicative of ice grounding in water depths up to 1280 m. These features have been interpreted as being formed by an ice shelf—either restricted to the Amerasian Basin (the “minimum model”) or extending across the entire Arctic Basin. Here, we use a numerical ice sheet-shelf model to explore how such an ice shelf could form. We rule out the “minimum model” and suggest that grounding on the Lomonosov Ridge requires complete Arctic ice shelf cover; this places a minimum estimate on its volume, which would have exceeded that of the modern Greenland Ice Sheet. Buttressing provided by an Arctic ice shelf would have increased volumes of the peripheral terrestrial ice sheets. An Arctic ice shelf could have formed even in the absence of a hypothesised East Siberian Ice Sheet.

AbstractOver the past 34 Million years, the Antarctic continental shelf has gradually deepened due to ice sheet loading, thermal subsidence, and erosion from repeated glaciations. The deepening that is recorded in the sedimentary deposits around the Antarctic margin indicates that after the mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (≈15 Ma), Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) dynamical response to climate conditions changed. We explore end-members for maximum AIS extent, based on ice-sheet simulations of a late-Pleistocene and a mid-Miocene glaciation. Fundamental dynamical differences emerge as a consequence of atmospheric forcing, eustatic sea level and continental shelf evolution. We show that the AIS contributed to the amplification of its own sensitivity to ocean forcing by gradually expanding and eroding the continental shelf, that probably changed its tipping points through time. The lack of past topographic and bathymetric reconstructions implies that so far, we still have an incomplete understanding of AIS fast response to past warm climate conditions, which is crucial to constrain its future evolution.

Abstract. The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (> 800ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (∼ 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 × CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP-the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Significance
.
. New information from the ANDRILL-2A drill core and a complementary ice sheet modeling study show that polar climate and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) margins were highly dynamic during the early to mid-Miocene. Changes in extent of the AIS inferred by these studies suggest that high southern latitudes were sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO
. 2
. (between 280 and 500 ppm). Importantly, reconstructions through intervals of peak warmth indicate that the AIS retreated beyond its terrestrial margin under atmospheric CO
. 2
. conditions that were similar to those projected for the coming centuries.
.

Significance
.
. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are projected to exceed 500 ppm in the coming decades. It is likely that the last time such levels of atmospheric CO
. 2
. were reached was during the Miocene, for which there is geologic data for large-scale advance and retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Simulating Antarctic ice sheet retreat is something that ice sheet models have struggled to achieve because of a strong hysteresis effect. Here, a number of developments in our modeling approach mean that we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet for the first time. Our results are also consistent with a recently recovered sedimentological record from the Ross Sea presented in a companion article.
.

AbstractAntarctic bedrock elevation estimates have uncertainties exceeding 1 km in certain regions. Bedrock elevation, particularly where the bedrock is below sea level and bordering the ocean, can have a large impact on ice sheet stability. We investigate how present‐day bedrock elevation uncertainty affects ice sheet model simulations for a generic past warm period based on the mid‐Pliocene, although these uncertainties are also relevant to present‐day and future ice sheet stability. We perform an ensemble of simulations with random topographic noise added with various length scales and with amplitudes tuned to the uncertainty of the Bedmap2 data set. Total Antarctic ice sheet retreat in these simulations varies between 12.6 and 17.9 m equivalent sea level rise after 3 kyrs of warm climate forcing. This study highlights the sensitivity of ice sheet models to existing uncertainties in bedrock elevation and the ongoing need for new data acquisition.

Abstract. In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

Abstract. A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ~780 ppmv is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene–Oligocene transition ~34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter.
.

The balance of processes that control elemental distributions in the modern oceans is important in understanding both their internal recycling and the rate and nature of their eventual output to sediment. Here we seek to evaluate the likely controls on the vertical profiles of Cu and Zn. Though the concentrations of both Cu and Zn increase with depth, Cu increases in a more linear fashion than Zn, which exhibits a typical “nutrient‐type” profile. Both elements are bioessential, and biological uptake and regeneration has often been cited as an important process in controlling their vertical distribution. In this study, we investigate the likely importance of another key vertical process, that of passive scavenging on sinking particles, via a simple one‐dimensional model of reversible scavenging. We find that, despite the absence of lateral or vertical water advection, mixing, diffusion, or biological uptake, our reversible scavenging model is very successful in replicating dissolved Cu concentration profiles on a range of geographic scales. We provide preliminary constraints on the scavenging coefficients for Cu for a spectrum of particle types (calcium carbonate, opal, particulate organic carbon, and dust) while emphasizing the fit of the shape of the modeled profile to that of the tracer data. In contrast to Cu, and reaffirming the belief that Zn behaves as a true micronutrient, the scavenging model is a poor match to the shape of oceanic Zn profiles. Modeling a single vertical process simultaneously highlights the importance of lateral advection in generating high Zn concentrations in the deep Pacific.

Over the past decade, efforts to estimate temperature and sea level for the past 50 Ma have increased. In parallel, efforts to model ice sheet changes during this period have been ongoing. We review published paleodata and modeling work to provide insights into how sea level responds to changing temperature through changes in ice volume and thermal expansion. To date, the temperature to sea level relationship has been explored for the transition from glacial to interglacial states. Attempts to synthesize the temperature to sea level relationship in deeper time, when temperatures were significantly warmer than present, have been tentative. We first review the existing temperature and sea level data and model simulations, with a discussion of uncertainty in each of these approaches. We then synthesize the sea level and temperature data and modeling results we have reviewed to test plausible forms for the sea level versus temperature relationship. On this very long timescale there are no globally representative temperature proxies, and so we investigate this relationship using deep‐sea temperature records and surface temperature records from high and low latitudes. It is difficult to distinguish between the different plausible forms of the temperature to sea level relationship given the wide errors associated with the proxy estimates. We argue that for surface high‐latitude Southern Hemisphere temperature and deep‐sea temperature, the rate of change of sea level to temperature has not remained constant, i.e. linear, over the past 50 Ma, although the relationship remains ambiguous for the available low‐latitude surface temperature data. A nonlinear form between temperature and sea level is consistent with ice sheet modeling studies. This relationship can be attributed to (1) the different glacial thresholds for Southern Hemisphere glaciation compared to Northern Hemisphere glaciation and (2) the ice sheet carrying capacity of the Antarctic continent.