A large number of historical simulations and future climate projections are available from Global Climate Models, but these are typically of coarse resolution, which limits their effectiveness for assessing local scale changes in climate and attendant impacts. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling model capable of replicating extreme events, the Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), to downscale daily precipitation, air-temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, air pressure, and relative humidity from 18 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). BCCAQ is calibrated using high-resolution reference datasets and showed a good performance in removing bias from GCMs and reproducing extreme events. The globally downscaled data are available at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis ( https://doi.org/10.5285/c107618f1db34801bb88a1e927b82317 ) for the historical (1981-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods at 0.25° resolution and at daily time step across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-3.4-OS and SSP5-8.5). This new climate dataset will be useful for assessing future changes and variability in climate and for driving high-resolution impact assessment models.

There is a clear need to improve and update landslide susceptibility models across the Philippines. This is challenging, as landslides in this region are frequently triggered by temporally and spatially disparate typhoon events, and it remains unclear whether such spatially and/or temporally distinct typhoon events cause similar landslide responses, i.e. whether the landslide susceptibility for one typhoon event is similar for another. Here, we use logistic regression to develop four landslide susceptibility models based on three typhoon-triggered landslide inventories for the 2009 Typhoon Parma (local name Typhoon Pepeng), the 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut (local name Typhoon Ompong), and the 2019 Typhoon Kammuri (local name Typhoon Tisoy). The 2009 and 2018 inventories were mapped across the same 150 km2 region of Itogon in Benguet Province, whilst the 2019 event was mapped across a 490 km2 region of Abuan in Isabela Province. The four susceptibility models produced are for the 2009, 2018, and 2019 inventories separately, as well as for the 2009 and 2018 inventories combined. Using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) validation, the accuracy of the models is found to be 78 %-82 % for the Itogon models and 65 % for the Abuan model. To assess landslide time dependency, we use the AUROC validation and the Itogon models to quantify the degree to which susceptibility models derived from one event(s) in time can forecast/hindcast the landslides triggered by another. We find that using a susceptibility model for a typhoon event in one year to forecast/hindcast a typhoon in another leads to a 6%-10 % reduction in model accuracy compared to the accuracy obtained when modelling and validating each event separately. This suggests some degree of time dependency in typhoon-triggered landslides in the Philippines. However, using a susceptibility model for two combined typhoon events (2018 + 2009) to forecast/hindcast each typhoon event separately led to just a 1%-3 % reduction in model accuracy. This suggests that combined multi-event typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility models will be more accurate and reliable for the forecasting of future typhoon-triggered landslides. Finally, by undertaking a high-level comparison of the Abuan and Itogon susceptibility models through space, we preliminarily suggest that there may be spatial dependency in typhoon-triggered landslides in the Philippines but that further work into issues of spatial dependency in this region is required. Copyright:

In mountainous environments, quantifying the drivers of mass-wasting is fundamental for understanding landscape evolution and improving hazard management. Here, we quantify the magnitudes of mass-wasting caused by the Asia Summer Monsoon, extreme rainfall, and earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Using a newly compiled 30-year mass-wasting inventory, we establish empirical relationships between monsoon-triggered mass-wasting and monsoon precipitation, before quantifying how other mass-wasting drivers perturb this relationship. We find that perturbations up to 5 times greater than that expected from the monsoon alone are caused by rainfall events with 5-to-30-year return periods and short-term (< 2 year) earthquake-induced landscape preconditioning. In 2015, the landscape preconditioning is strongly controlled by the topographic signature of the Gorkha earthquake, whereby high Peak Ground Accelerations coincident with high excess topography (rock volume above a landscape threshold angle) amplifies landscape damage. Furthermore, earlier earthquakes in 1934, 1988 and 2011 are not found to influence 2015 mass-wasting.

Climate change impacts on sediment production and transfer processes on hillslopes and through channels are governed by possible changes in precipitation, runoff, and air temperature. These hydrological and geomorphological impacts are difficult to predict in temperature-sensitive Alpine environments. In this study, we combined a stochastic weather generator model with the most current climate change projections to feed a hillslope-channel sediment cascade model for a major debris-flow system in the Swiss Alps (the Illgraben). This allowed us to quantify climate change impacts and their uncertainties on sediment yield and the number of debris flows at hourly temporal resolution. We show that projected changes in precipitation and air temperature lead to a reduction in both sediment yield (−48%) and debris-flow occurrence (−23%). This change is caused by a decrease in sediment supply from hillslopes, which is driven by frost-weathering. Additionally, we conduct model experiments that show the sensitivity of projected changes in sediment yield and debris-flow hazard to basin elevation, with important implications for assessing natural hazards and risks in mountain environments. Future changes in hydrological and sediment fluxes are characterized by high uncertainty, mainly due to irreducible internal climate variability. Therefore, this stochastic uncertainty needs to be considered in climate change impact assessments for geomorphic systems.

Boulder movement can be observed not only in rockfall activity, but also in association with other landslide types such as rockslides, soil slides in colluvium originating from previous rockslides, and debris flows. Large boulders pose a direct threat to life and key infrastructure in terms of amplifying landslide and flood hazards as they move from the slopes to the river network. Despite the hazard they pose, boulders have not been directly targeted as a mean to detect landslide movement or used in dedicated early warning systems. We use an innovative monitoring system to observe boulder movement occurring in different geomorphological settings before reaching the river system. Our study focuses on an area in the upper Bhote Koshi catchment northeast of Kathmandu, where the Araniko highway is subjected to periodic landsliding and floods during the monsoons and was heavily affected by coseismic landslides during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. In the area, damage by boulders to properties, roads, and other key infrastructure, such as hydropower plants, is observed every year. We embedded trackers in 23 boulders spread between a landslide body and two debris flow channels before the monsoon season of 2019. The trackers, equipped with accelerometers, can detect small angular changes in the orientation of boulders and large forces acting on them. The data can be transmitted in real time via a long-range wide-area network (LoRaWAN®) gateway to a server. Nine of the tagged boulders registered patterns in the accelerometer data compatible with downslope movements. of these, six lying within the landslide body show small angular changes, indicating a reactivation during the rainfall period and a movement of the landslide mass. Three boulders located in a debris flow channel show sharp changes in orientation, likely corresponding to larger free movements and sudden rotations. This study highlights the fact that this innovative, cost-effective technology can be used to monitor boulders in hazard-prone sites by identifying the onset of potentially hazardous movement in real time and may thus establish the basis for early warning systems, particularly in developing countries where expensive hazard mitigation strategies may be unfeasible.

Landslide susceptibility models are fundamental components of landslide risk management strategies. These models typically assume that landslide occurrence is time-independent, even though processes including earthquake preconditioning and landslide path dependency transiently impact landslide occurrence. Understanding the temporal characteristics of landslide occurrence remains limited by a lack of systematic investigation into how landslide distributions vary through time, and how this impacts landslide susceptibility. Here, we apply Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and chi-square statistics to a 30-yr inventory of monsoon-triggered landslides from Nepal to systematically quantify how landslide spatial distributions vary through time in “normal” years and years impacted by extreme events. We then develop binary logistic regression (BLR) susceptibility models for 12 yrs in our inventory with >400 landslides and use area under receiver operator curve validation to assess how well these models can hindcast landslide occurrence in other years. Landslide distributions are found to vary through time, particularly in years impacted by storms (1993 and 2002), earthquakes (2015), and floods (2017). Notably, Gorkha earthquake landscape preconditioning shifted 2015 monsoon-triggered landslides to higher slopes, reliefs, and excess topographies. These variations significantly impact BLR susceptibility modeling, with models trained on extreme years unable to consistently hindcast landslide occurrence in other years. However, developing BLR models using increasingly long historical inventories shows that susceptibility models developed using >6–8 yrs of landslide data provide consistently good hindcasting accuracy. Overall, our results challenge time-independent assumptions of landslide susceptibility approaches, highlighting the need for time-dependent modeling techniques or historical inventories for landslide susceptibility modeling.

In 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut (locally known as Typhoon Ompong) triggered thousands of landslides in the Itogon region of the Philippines. A landslide inventory of the affected region is compiled for the first time, comprising 1101 landslides over a 570 km2 area. The inventory is used to study the geomorphological characteristics and land cover more prone to landsliding as well as the hydrometeorological conditions that led to widespread failure. The results showed that landslides mostly occurred on grassland and wooded slopes of clay superficial geology, predominantly facing eastsoutheast. Rainfall (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement, IMERG GPM) associated with Typhoon Mangkhut is compared with 33 highintensity rainfall events that did not trigger regional landslide events in 2018. Results show that landslides occurred during high-intensity rainfall that coincided with the highest soil moisture values (estimated clays saturation point), according to Soil Moisture Active Passive level 4 (SMAP-L4) data. Our results demonstrate the potential of SMAP-L4 and GPM IMERG data for landslide hazard assessment and early warning where ground-based data are scarce. However, other rainfall events in the months leading up to Typhoon Mangkhut that had similar or higher rainfall intensities and also occurred when soils were saturated did not trigger widespread landsliding, highlighting the need for further research into the conditions that trigger landslides in typhoons.

A landscape's sediment grain size distribution is the product of, and an important influence on, earth surface processes and landscape evolution. Grains can be large enough that the motion of a single grain, infrequently mobile in size-selective transport systems, constitutes or triggers significant geomorphic change. We define these grains as boulders. Boulders affect landscape evolution; their dynamics and effects on landscape form have been the focus of substantial recent community effort. We review progress on five key questions related to how boulders influence the evolution of unglaciated, eroding landscapes: 1) What factors control boulder production on eroding hillslopes and the subsequent downslope evolution of the boulder size distribution? 2) How do boulders influence hillslope processes and long-term hillslope evolution? 3) How do boulders influence fluvial processes and river channel shape? 4) How do boulder-mantled channels and hillslopes interact to set the long-term form and evolution of boulder-influenced landscapes? 5) How do boulders contribute to geomorphic hazards, and how might improved understanding of boulder dynamics be used for geohazard mitigation? Boulders are produced on eroding hillslopes by landsliding, rockfall, and/or exhumation through the critical zone. On hillslopes dominated by local sediment transport, boulders affect hillslope soil production and transport processes such that the downslope boulder size distribution sets the form of steady-state hillslopes. Hillslopes dominated by nonlocal sediment transport are less likely to exhibit boulder controls on hillslope morphology as boulders are rapidly transported to the hillslope toe. Downslope transport delivers boulders to eroding rivers where the boulders act as large roughness elements that change flow hydraulics and the efficiency of erosion and sediment transport. Over longer timescales, river channels adjust their geometry to accommodate the boulders supplied from adjacent hillslopes such that rivers can erode at the baselevel fall rate given their boulder size distribution. The delivery of boulders from hillslopes to channels, paired with the channel response to boulder delivery, drives channel-hillslope feedbacks that affect the transient evolution and steady-state form of boulder-influenced landscapes. At the event scale, boulder dynamics in eroding landscapes represent a component of geomorphic hazards that can be mitigated with an improved understanding of the rates and processes associated with boulder production and mobility. Opportunities for future work primarily entail field-focused data collection across gradients in landscape boundary conditions (tectonics, climate, and lithology) with the goal of understanding boulder dynamics as one component of landscape self-organization.

Episodically to continuously active slow‐moving landslides are driven by precipitation. Climate change, which is altering both the frequency and magnitude of precipitation worldwide, is therefore predicted to have a major impact on landslides. Here we examine the behavior of hundreds of slow‐moving landslides in northern California in response to large changes in annual precipitation that occurred between 2016 and 2018. We quantify the landslide displacement using repeat‐pass radar interferometry and pixel offset tracking techniques on a novel data set from the airborne NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar. We found that 312 landslides were moving due to extreme rainfall during 2017, compared to 119 during 2016, which was the final year of a historic multiyear drought. However, with a return to below to average rainfall in 2018, only 146 landslides remained in motion. The increased number of landslides during 2017 was primarily accommodated by landslides that were smaller than the landslides that remained active between 2016 and 2018. Furthermore, by examining a subset of 51 landslides, we found that 49 had increased velocities during 2017 when compared to 2016. Our results show that slow‐moving landslides are sensitive to large changes in annual precipitation, particularly the smaller and thinner landslides that likely experience larger basal pore‐water pressure changes. Based on climate model predictions for the next century in California, which include increases in average annual precipitation and increases in the frequency of dry‐to‐wet extremes, we hypothesize that there will be an overall increase in landslide activity.

AbstractCalifornia's ongoing, unprecedented drought is having profound impacts on the state's resources. Here we assess its impact on 98 deep‐seated, slow‐moving landslides in Northern California. We used aerial photograph analysis, satellite interferometry, and satellite pixel tracking to measure earthflow velocities spanning 1944–2015 and compared these trends with the Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for soil moisture and pore pressure that governs landslide motion. We find that earthflow velocities reached a historical low in the 2012–2015 drought, but that their deceleration began at the turn of the century in response to a longer‐term moisture deficit. Our analysis implies depth‐dependent sensitivity of earthflows to climate forcing, with thicker earthflows reflecting longer‐term climate trends and thinner earthflows exhibiting less systematic velocity variations. These findings have implications for mechanical‐hydrologic interactions that link landslide movement with climate change as well as sediment delivery in the region.

ABSTRACTLandslides and rockfalls are key geomorphic processes in mountain basins. Their quantification and characterization are critical for understanding the processes of slope failure and their contributions to erosion and landscape evolution. We used digital photogrammetry to produce a multi‐temporal record of erosion (1963–2005) of a rock slope at the head of the Illgraben, a very active catchment prone to debris flows in Switzerland. Slope failures affect 70% of the study slope and erode the slope at an average rate of 0.39 ± 0.03 m yr¯¹.The analysis of individual slope failures yielded an inventory of ~2500 failures ranging over 6 orders of magnitude in volume, despite the small slope area and short study period. The slope failures form a characteristic magnitude–frequency distribution with a rollover and a power‐law tail between ~200 m³ and 1.6 × 106 m³ with an exponent of 1.65. Slope failure volume scales with area as a power law with an exponent of 1.1. Both values are low for studies of bedrock landslides and rockfall and result from the highly fractured and weathered state of the quartzitic bedrock.Our data suggest that the magnitude–frequency distribution is the result of two separate slope failure processes. Type (1) failures are frequent, small slides and slumps within the weathered layer of highly fractured rock and loose sediment, and make up the rollover. Type (2) failures are less frequent and larger rockslides and rockfalls within the internal bedded and fractured slope along pre‐determined potential failure surfaces, and make up the power‐law tail.Rockslides and rockfalls of high magnitude and relatively low frequency make up 99% of the total failure volume and are thus responsible for the high erosion rate. They are also significant in the context of landscape evolution as they occur on slopes above 45° and limit the relief of the slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

ABSTRACTGlacier recession and landform development in a debris‐charged glacial landsystem characterized by an overdeepening is quantified using digital photogrammetry, digital elevation model (DEM) construction and mapping of the Icelandic glacier Kvíárjökull for the period 1945–2003. Melting of ice‐cores is recorded by surface lowering rates of 0·8 m yr–1 (1945–1964), 0·3 m yr–1 (1964–1980), 0·015 m yr–1 (1980–1998) and 0·044 m yr–1 (1998–2003). The distribution/preservation of pushed and stacked ice‐cored moraine complexes are determined by the location of the long‐term glacial drainage network in combination with retreat from the overdeepening, into which glacifluvial sediment is being directed and where debris‐rich ice masses are being reworked and replaced by esker networks produced in englacial meltwater pathways that bypassed the overdeepening and connected to outwash fans prograding over the snout. Recent accelerated retreat of Kvíárjökull, potentially due to increased mass balance sensitivity, has made the snout highly unstable, especially now that the overdeepening is being uncovered and the snout flooded by an expanding pro‐glacial, and partially supraglacial, lake. This case study indicates that thick sequences of debris‐charged basal ice/controlled moraine have a very low preservation potential but ice‐cored moraine complexes can develop into hummocky moraine belts in de‐glaciated terrains because they are related to the process of incremental stagnation, which at Kvíárjökull has involved periodic switches from transport‐dominant to ablation‐dominant conditions. Glacier recession is therefore recorded temporally and spatially by two suites of landforms relating to two phases of landform production which are likely typical for glaciers occupying overdeepenings: an early phase of active, temperate recession recorded by push moraines and lateral moraines and unconfined pro‐glacial meltwater drainage; and a later phase of incremental stagnation and pitted outwash head development initiated by the increasing topographic constraints of the latero‐frontal moraine arc and the increasing importance of the overdeepening as a depo‐centre. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.