Publications by year
In Press
Mercure J (In Press). Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use.
Climate PolicyAbstract:
Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use
Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall “black box” critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.
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Mercure J-F, Bravo PS, Vercoulen P, Semieniuk G, Lam A, Pollitt H, Holden P, Vakilifard N, Chewpreecha U, Edwards N, et al (In Press). Reframing the climate policy game.
Abstract:
Reframing the climate policy game
Abstract
. A key aim of climate policy is to progressively substitute renewables and energy efficiency for fossil fuel use. The associated rapid depreciation and replacement of fossil fuel-related physical and natural capital may entail a profound reorganisation of industry value chains, international trade, and geopolitics. Here, we present evidence confirming that the transformation of energy systems is well under way, and we explore the economic and strategic implications of the emerging energy geography. We show specifically that, given the economic implications of the ongoing energy transformation, the framing of climate policy as a prisoner’s dilemma is a poor description of strategic incentives. Instead, a new climate policy game emerges in which fossil fuel importers are better off decarbonising, competitive fossil fuel exporters are better off flooding markets, and uncompetitive fossil fuel producers – rather than benefitting from ‘free-riding’ – suffer from their exposure to stranded assets and lack of investment in decarbonisation technologies.
Abstract.
Mercure J-F (In Press). The de Haas van Alphen effect near a quantum critical end point in. Sr_3Ru_2O_7.
Abstract:
The de Haas van Alphen effect near a quantum critical end point in. Sr_3Ru_2O_7
Highly correlated electron materials are systems in which many new states of
matter can emerge. A particular situation which favours the formation of exotic
phases of the electron liquid in complex materials is that where a quantum
critical point (QCP) is present the phase diagram. Neighbouring regions in
parameter space reveal unusual physical properties, described as non-Fermi
liquid behaviour.
. One of the important problems in quantum criticality is to find out how the
Fermi surface (FS) of a material evolves near a QCP. The traditional method for
studying the FS of materials is the de Haas van Alphen effect (dHvA). A quantum
critical end point (QCEP) has been reported in the highly correlated metal
Sr3Ru2O7, which is tuned using a magnetic field high enough to perform the dHvA
experiment. It moreover features a new emergent phase in the vicinity of the
QCEP, a nematic type of electron ordering.
. The subject of this thesis is the study of the FS of Sr3Ru2O7 using the dHvA
effect. Three aspects were explored. The first was the determination of the FS
at fields both above and below that where the QCEP arises. The second was the
search for quantum oscillations inside the nematic phase. The third was a
reinvestigation of the behaviour of the quasiparticle effective masses near the
FS.
. A complete robust model for the FS of Sr3Ru2O7 at zero fields was determined.
Moreover, the new measurements of the quasiparticle masses revealed that no
mass enhancements exist anywhere around the QCEP. Finally, we report dHvA
oscillations inside the nematic phase, which suggests that the carriers consist
of Landau quasiparticles.
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Author URL.
2020
Semieniuk G, Campiglio E, Mercure J, Volz U, Edwards NR (2020). Low‐carbon transition risks for finance.
WIREs Climate Change,
12(1).
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Mercure J-F, Knobloch F, Hanssen S, Lam A, Pollitt H, Salas P, Chewpreecha U, Huijbregts M (2020). Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time.
Nature Sustainability,
3, 437-447.
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Beerling DJ, Kantzas EP, Lomas MR, Wade P, Eufrasio RM, Renforth P, Sarkar B, Andrews MG, James RH, Pearce CR, et al (2020). Potential for large-scale CO<inf>2</inf> removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands.
Nature,
583(7815), 242-248.
Abstract:
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands
© 2020, the Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change1. ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification2–4. Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius5. China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80–180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land–ocean transfer of weathered products.
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Hu X, Pollitt H, Pirie J, Mercure JF, Liu J, Meng J, Tao S (2020). The impacts of the trade liberalization of environmental goods on power system and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions.
Energy Policy,
140Abstract:
The impacts of the trade liberalization of environmental goods on power system and CO2 emissions
© 2019 the trade liberalization of Environmental Goods (EG), through as Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA), is crucial in low carbon electricity technology diffusion. However, there is a big gap of the EG definition lists and the integrated effectiveness analysis of EGA. This paper analyses the effects of the trade liberalization of EG based on macroeconomic and electricity sector models and attempts to find a more efficient EG trade policy by comparing different EG lists, considering end-use control and combining the EG policy with a carbon tax. The results show that the trade liberalization of EG does not necessarily benefit the environment without other policies, as the effects of the multiple end-uses of EG on conventional energy might result in environmental damage. We find that merging an EGA into a global carbon tax system would enhance the effects of carbon tax on CO2 reduction by 33%, and simultaneously lower the GDP loss due to the carbon tax by 75%. The economic benefits from the EGA could offset the costs of other environmental policies. Thus, end-use control and other environmental policies should be considered at both the global and regional levels in the setting of international trade agreements that target EG.
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2019
Lehmann P, Sijm J, Gawel E, Strunz S, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF, Pollitt H (2019). Addressing multiple externalities from electricity generation: a case for EU renewable energy policy beyond 2020?.
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies,
21(2), 255-283.
Abstract:
Addressing multiple externalities from electricity generation: a case for EU renewable energy policy beyond 2020?
© 2018, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies and Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature. Subsidies to electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) implemented next to an emissions trading scheme (ETS) are frequently criticised for producing no additional benefit in terms of mitigating climate change and increasing the costs of emissions abatement. We re-assess the performance of this policy mix in a setting in which electricity generation produces multiple externalities (beyond climate change) and in which these externalities cannot be addressed by first-best policies. Using an analytical partial equilibrium model, we show that the optimal composition of the policy mix depends on the market interactions between the multiple externalities. We complement this analysis by a quantitative policy assessment, combining a top-down, global macro-economic model and a bottom-up, global electricity sector model. The quantitative analysis suggests that RES-E subsidies may be effective in partly reducing externalities from fossil fuel combustion (by crowding out gas- and oil-fired generation) and in mitigating radiation hazards (by crowding out nuclear generation). However, RES-E subsidies are not necessarily suited to address externalities related to the extraction and transportation of fossil fuels or risks of sudden supply interruptions for imported fuels. With respect to these latter externalities, tightening the ETS cap may be a more effective, but politically less feasible approach.
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Smith A, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF, Pollitt H (2019). EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: is a single target for GHG reduction sufficient?. In (Ed)
The European Dimension of Germany's Energy Transition: Opportunities and Conflicts, 27-43.
Abstract:
EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: is a single target for GHG reduction sufficient?
Abstract.
Paim MA, Dalmarco AR, Yang CH, Salas P, Lindner S, Mercure JF, de Andrade Guerra JBSO, Derani C, Bruce da Silva T, Viñuales JE, et al (2019). Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix.
Energy Policy,
128, 393-401.
Abstract:
Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Hydroelectricity provides approximately 65% of Brazil's power generating capacity, making the country vulnerable to droughts, which are becoming increasingly frequent. Current energy law and policy responses to the problem rely on a sectorial approach and prioritise energy security and market regulation. Brazil has opted to increase energy security levels during periods of hydrological variability with national grid interconnection and thermal plants backup. Additionally, Brazil has created the Energy Reallocation Mechanism (MRE) to manage the generators’ financial impacts in times of insufficient water. This policy, however, was unable to avoid the high financial exposure of generators in the spot market during the severe droughts experienced in the period 2012–2016. To explore how a more diversified electricity matrix can contribute to reducing hydrological risk, this article uses Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) techniques to analyse future macroeconomic and energy scenarios for Brazil in a global context, aligned with the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. We show that the addition of non-hydro renewables is an advantage from the integrated Water-Energy-Food nexus perspective because it reduces trade-offs amongst the water and energy sectors. Our conclusions suggest that a nexus perspective can provide useful insights on how to design energy laws and policies.
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Pollitt H, Mercure JF (2019). Financing the low-carbon transition. In (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 217-227.
Paim M-A, Salas P, Lindner S, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Edwards NR, Viñuales JE (2019). Mainstreaming the Water-Energy-Food Nexus through nationally determined contributions (NDCs): the case of Brazil.
Climate Policy,
20(2), 163-178.
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Knobloch F, Huijbregts MAJ, Mercure JF (2019). Modelling the effectiveness of climate policies: How important is loss aversion by consumers?.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,
116Abstract:
Modelling the effectiveness of climate policies: How important is loss aversion by consumers?
© 2019 the Authors Reliable decarbonisation policies can only be developed with a thorough understanding of how consumers choose between energy technologies. Current energy models assume optimal consumer decisions which may result in expectations of the effectiveness of climate policies that are far too optimistic. Prospect Theory, on the other hand, aims to model real-life choices, based on empirical observations that losses have a relatively larger influence on decisions than gains, relative to a reference point. Here, we show for the first time how loss aversion can be included into a global energy model with high spatial resolution, using heating technology uptake as a case study. We simulate the future heating technology diffusion for 59 world regions covering the globe, with and without the consideration of loss aversion. We find that ignoring the implications of loss aversion overestimates the market uptake of renewables, in individual countries as well as on the global level. As a consequence, loss aversion results in higher projected CO2 emissions by households, and the need for much stronger policy instruments for achieving decarbonisation targets. In the case of residential heating, a carbon tax of 200 €/tCO2 is projected to reduce overall emission levels to a similar extent than a carbon tax of 100 €/tCO2 without the consideration of loss aversion. Even for similar degrees of decarbonisation, accounting for loss aversion implies substantial changes in the underlying technology composition: technology choices become subject to a ‘conservative shift’ towards low-carbon technologies which are relatively less efficient, but already more established in local markets.
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Knobloch F, Chewpreecha U, Kim S, He Y, Chen LC, Lam A, Mercure JF, Lee S (2019). Policies to decarbonize household heating systems in east asia. In (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 176-200.
Lam A, Lee S, Cho Y, Lin CH, Knobloch F, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Mercure JF (2019). Policies to decarbonize passenger vehicles in east asia. In (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 138-175.
Vercoulen P, Lee S, Suk S, He Y, Fujikawa K, Mercure JF (2019). Policies to decarbonize the steel industry in east asia. In (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 110-137.
Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Lee S, Lee TY, Mercure JF (2019). Policy mixes to meet CO2 emission reduction targets in all sectors of the economy in east asia. In (Ed) Energy, Environmental and Economic Sustainability in East Asia: Policies and Institutional Reforms, 99-109.
Mercure JF, Paim MA, Bocquillon P, Lindner S, Salas P, Martinelli P, Berchin II, de Andrade Guerra JBSO, Derani C, de Albuquerque Junior CL, et al (2019). System complexity and policy integration challenges: the Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,
105, 230-243.
Abstract:
System complexity and policy integration challenges: the Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus
© 2019 the Author(s) the Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making.
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Mercure J-F (2019). Toward Risk-Opportunity Assessment in Climate-Friendly Finance.
One Earth,
1(4), 395-398.
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2018
Holden PB, Edwards NR, Ridgwell A, Wilkinson RD, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Lam A, et al (2018). Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement (vol 8, pg 609, 2018).
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,
8(10), 921-921.
Author URL.
Holden PB, Edwards NR, Ridgwell A, Wilkinson RD, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F, Pollitt H, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Lam A, et al (2018). Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement.
Nature Climate Change,
8(7), 609-613.
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Brouwer F, Avgerinopoulos G, Fazekas D, Laspidou C, Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Ramos EP, Howells M (2018). Energy modelling and the Nexus concept.
Energy Strategy Reviews,
19, 1-6.
Abstract:
Energy modelling and the Nexus concept
© 2017 the Authors the Nexus concept is the interconnection between the resources energy, water, food, land and climate. Such interconnections enable to address trade-offs and seek for synergies among them. Several policy areas (e.g. bio-based economy, circular economy) increasingly consider the Nexus concept. Ignoring synergies and trade-offs between energy and natural flows, can generate misleading modelling outcomes. Several modelling tools are available to address energy and the Nexus. Based on six such models, this paper aims to support the design and testing of coherent strategies for sustainable development. Model improvements would be achieved by comparing model outcomes and including a common baseline.
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Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Lam A, Knobloch F, Vinuales JE (2018). Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE.
ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS,
20, 195-208.
Author URL.
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Mercure J-F (2018). Fashion, fads and the popularity of choices: Micro-foundations for diffusion consumer theory.
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
46, 194-207.
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Mercure J-F, Lam A, Billington S, Pollitt H (2018). Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 C-degrees.
CLIMATIC CHANGE,
151(2), 109-129.
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Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Viñuales JE, Edwards NR, Holden PB, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Sognnaes I, Lam A, Knobloch F, et al (2018). Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets.
Nature Climate Change,
8(7), 588-593.
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Lam A, Lee S, Mercure JF, Cho Y, Lin CH, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Billington S (2018). Policies and predictions for a low-carbon transition by 2050 in passenger vehicles in East Asia: Based on an analysis using the E3ME-FTT model.
Sustainability (Switzerland),
10(5).
Abstract:
Policies and predictions for a low-carbon transition by 2050 in passenger vehicles in East Asia: Based on an analysis using the E3ME-FTT model
© 2018 by the authors. In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.
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Knobloch F, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Daioglou V, Mercure J-F (2018). Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.
Energy Efficiency,
12(2), 521-550.
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Pollitt H, Mercure JF (2018). The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used for assessing climate and energy policy.
Climate Policy,
18(2), 184-197.
Abstract:
The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used for assessing climate and energy policy
© 2017 the Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor. &. Francis Group. This article outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate and energy policy, which could lead to misleading information being used for policy-making. We show that the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that are typically used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. These assumptions lead to ‘crowding out’ of capital and, because of the way the models are constructed, negative economic impacts (in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare) from climate policy in virtually all cases. In contrast, macro-econometric models, which follow non-equilibrium economic theory and adopt a more empirical approach, apply a treatment of the financial system that is more consistent with reality. Although these models also have major limitations, they show that green investment need not crowd out investment in other parts of the economy–and may therefore offer an economic stimulus. Our conclusion is that improvements in both modelling approaches should be sought with some urgency–both to provide a better assessment of potential climate and energy policy and to improve understanding of the dynamics of the global financial system more generally. POLICY RELEVANCE This article discusses the treatment of the financial system in the macroeconomic models that are used in assessments of climate and energy policy. It shows major limitations in approach that could result in misleading information being provided to policy-makers.
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2016
Vosper SJ, Mercure JF (2016). Assessing the effectiveness of South Africa's emissions-based purchase tax for private passenger vehicles: a consumer choice modelling approach.
Journal of Energy in Southern Africa,
27(4), 25-37.
Abstract:
Assessing the effectiveness of South Africa's emissions-based purchase tax for private passenger vehicles: a consumer choice modelling approach
South Africa is an important economy in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions and it has made progressive policy steps to address its national emissions. One significant national fiscal policy is the emissions based purchase tax for private passenger vehicles, implemented in September 2010. There has, however, been little attempt to assess the effect that this key mitigation policy has had on the emissions of new passenger vehicle fleets. This study uses a discrete consumer choice model to assess the effectiveness of this tax policy in changing consumer behaviour and reducing fleet emissions. It finds that the emissions reduction achieved by the tax were negligible compared to the increases in fleet emissions associated with the growing vehicle market. It is demonstrated that the structure of the tax policy does not suit the dynamics of the South African vehicle market and the policy would require restructuring if it is to more effectively reduce fleet emissions. In addition, for the tax policy to effect significant fleet emissions reductions in the future it will require the emergence of low- and zero-carbon vehicle technologies in the lowest price brackets of the market, possibly via subsidy policies.
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Foley AM, Holden PB, Edwards NR, Mercure J-F, Salas P, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U (2016). Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector.
Earth System Dynamics,
7(1), 119-132.
Abstract:
Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector
Abstract. We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.
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Mercure J-F, Pollitt H, Bassi AM, Vinuales JE, Edwards NR (2016). Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy.
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,
37, 102-115.
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Mercure J (2016). Policy-induced energy technological innovation and finance for low-carbon economic growth. European Commission.
Knobloch F, Mercure JF (2016). The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents.
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions,
21, 39-55.
Abstract:
The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents
© 2016 the Authors Studies report that firms do not invest in cost-effective green technologies. While economic barriers can explain parts of the gap, behavioural aspects cause further under-valuation. This could be partly due to systematic deviations of decision-making agents’ perceptions from normative benchmarks, and partly due to their diversity. This paper combines available behavioural knowledge into a simple model of technology adoption. Firms are modelled as heterogeneous agents with different behavioural responses. To quantify the gap, the model simulates their investment decisions from different theoretical perspectives. While relevant parameters are uncertain at the micro-level, using distributed agent perspectives provides a realistic representation of the macro adoption rate. The model is calibrated using audit data for proposed investments in energy efficient electric motors. The inclusion of behavioural factors reduces significantly expected adoption rates: from 81% using a normative optimisation perspective, down to 20% using a behavioural perspective. The effectiveness of various policies is tested.
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2015
Mercure J-F (2015). An age structured demographic theory of technological change.
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
25(4), 787-820.
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Barker T, Alexandri E, Mercure J-F, Ogawa Y, Pollitt H (2015). GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap. Climate Policy, 16(4), 393-414.
Ogawa Y, Mercure JF, Lee S, Pollitt H (2015). Modeling the power sectors in East Asia: the choice of power sources. In (Ed) Low-carbon, Sustainable Future in East Asia: Improving Energy Systems, Taxation and Policy Cooperation, 45-62.
Mercure J-F, Lam A (2015). The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies.
Environmental Research Letters,
10(6), 064008-064008.
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2014
Mercure JF, Salas P (2014). Feasibility of decarbonisation from a technology perspective. In (Ed) Decarbonising the World's Economy: Assessing the Feasibility of Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 151-222.
Mercure JF, Pollitt H, Chewpreecha U, Salas P, Foley AM, Holden PB, Edwards NR (2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector.
Energy Policy,
73, 686-700.
Abstract:
The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector
This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping. © 2014 the Authors.
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2013
Allan MP, Tamai A, Rozbicki E, Fischer MH, Voss J, King PDC, Meevasana W, Thirupathaiah S, Rienks E, Fink J, et al (2013). Formation of heavy d-electron quasiparticles in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru <inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>.
New Journal of Physics,
15Abstract:
Formation of heavy d-electron quasiparticles in Sr3Ru 2O7
The phase diagram of Sr3Ru2O7 shows hallmarks of strong electron correlations despite the modest Coulomb interaction in the Ru 4d shell. We use angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy measurements to provide microscopic insight into the formation of the strongly renormalized heavy d-electron liquid that controls the physics of Sr 3Ru2O7. Our data reveal itinerant Ru 4d-states confined over large parts of the Brillouin zone to an energy range of
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Mercure JF, Salas P (2013). On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities.
Energy Policy,
63, 469-483.
Abstract:
On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities
A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. © 2013 the Authors.
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2012
Mercure JF, Salas P (2012). An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials.
Energy,
46(1), 322-336.
Abstract:
An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials
This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
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Mercure JF (2012). FTT:Power a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion.
Energy Policy,
48, 799-811.
Abstract:
FTT:Power a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion
This work introduces a model of Future Technology Transformations for the power sector (FTT:Power), a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change (ITC) and natural resource use and depletion. It is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom-up models of technology, designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model E3MG. ITC occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear, irreversible and path dependent technological transitions. The model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations. As opposed to traditional bottom-up energy models based on systems optimisation, such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations, as well as a much reduced computational load. Resource use and depletion are represented by local cost-supply curves, which give rise to different regional energy landscapes. The model is explored for a single global region using two simple scenarios, a baseline and a mitigation case where the price of carbon is gradually increased. While a constant price of carbon leads to a stagnant system, mitigation produces successive technology transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power sector. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
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Mercure JF, Bangura AF, Xu X, Wakeham N, Carrington A, Walmsley P, Greenblatt M, Hussey NE (2012). Upper critical magnetic field far above the paramagnetic pair-breaking limit of superconducting one-dimensional Li <inf>0.9</inf>Mo <inf>6</inf>O <inf>17</inf> single crystals.
Physical Review Letters,
108(18).
Abstract:
Upper critical magnetic field far above the paramagnetic pair-breaking limit of superconducting one-dimensional Li 0.9Mo 6O 17 single crystals
The upper critical field H c2 of purple bronze Li 0.9Mo 6O 17 is found to exhibit a large anisotropy, in quantitative agreement with that expected from the observed electrical resistivity anisotropy. With the field aligned along the most conducting axis, H c2 increases monotonically with decreasing temperature to a value 5 times larger than the estimated paramagnetic pair-breaking field. Theories for the enhancement of H c2 invoking spin-orbit scattering or strong-coupling superconductivity are shown to be inadequate in explaining the observed behavior, suggesting that the pairing state in Li 0.9Mo 6O 17 is unconventional and possibly spin triplet. © 2012 American Physical Society.
Abstract.
2011
Wakeham N, Bangura AF, Xu X, Mercure JF, Greenblatt M, Hussey NE (2011). Gross violation of the Wiedemann-Franz law in a quasi-one-dimensional conductor.
Nature Communications,
2(1).
Abstract:
Gross violation of the Wiedemann-Franz law in a quasi-one-dimensional conductor
When charge carriers are spatially confined to one dimension, conventional Fermi-liquid theory breaks down. In such Tomonaga-Luttinger liquids, quasiparticles are replaced by distinct collective excitations of spin and charge that propagate independently with different velocities. Although evidence for spin-charge separation exists, no bulk low-energy probe has yet been able to distinguish successfully between Tomonaga-Luttinger and Fermi-liquid physics. Here we show experimentally that the ratio of the thermal and electrical Hall conductivities in the metallic phase of quasi-one-dimensional Li 0.9 Mo 6 O 17 diverges with decreasing temperature, reaching a value five orders of magnitude larger than that found in conventional metals. Both the temperature dependence and magnitude of this ratio are consistent with Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid theory. Such a dramatic manifestation of spin-charge separation in a bulk three-dimensional solid offers a unique opportunity to explore how the fermionic quasiparticle picture recovers, and over what time scale, when coupling to a second or third dimension is restored. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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2010
Rost AW, Berridge AM, Perry RS, Mercure JF, Grigera SA, Mackenzie AP (2010). Power law specific heat divergence in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>.
Physica Status Solidi (B) Basic Research,
247(3), 513-515.
Abstract:
Power law specific heat divergence in Sr3Ru2O7
We present measurement and analysis of field-dependent specific heat measurements on Sr3Ru2O7, showing that, at low temperatures, an incipient divergence is cut off by the formation of a new phase previously identified to show the transport properties of an electronic nematic. We discuss how to interpret a specific heat divergence in a system with van Hove singularities, and caution against a simple-minded comparison of experimentally determined power laws with the predictions of quantum critical theories. © 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
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Mercure J-F, Rost AW, O'Farrell ECT, Goh SK, Perry RS, Sutherland ML, Grigera SA, Borzi RA, Gegenwart P, Gibbs AS, et al (2010). Quantum oscillations near the metamagnetic transition in Sr3Ru2O7.
PHYSICAL REVIEW B,
81(23).
Author URL.
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2009
Rost AW, Perry RS, Mercure JF, Mackenzie AP, Grigera SA (2009). Entropy landscape of phase formation associated with quantum criticality in Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf>.
Science,
325(5946), 1360-1363.
Abstract:
Entropy landscape of phase formation associated with quantum criticality in Sr3Ru2O7
Low-temperature phase transitions and the associated quantum critical points are a major field of research, but one in which experimental information about thermodynamics is sparse. Thermodynamic information is vital for the understanding of quantum many-body problems. We show that combining measurements of the magnetocaloric effect and specific heat allows a comprehensive study of the entropy of a system. We present a quantitative measurement of the entropie landscape of Sr3Ru2O7, a quantum critical system in which magnetic field is used as a tuning parameter. This allows us to track the development of the entropy as the quantum critical point is approached and to study the thermodynamic consequences of the formation of a novel electronic liquid crystalline phase in its vicinity.
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Kittaka S, Yonezawa S, Yaguchi H, Maeno Y, Fittipaldi R, Vecchione A, Mercure JF, Gibbs A, Perry RS, MacKenzie AP, et al (2009). Evidence for the Sr<inf>2</inf>RuO<inf>4</inf> intercalations in the Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf> region of the Sr<inf>3</inf>Ru <inf>2</inf>O<inf>7</inf> - Sr<inf>2</inf>RuO<inf>4</inf> eutectic system.
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Evidence for the Sr2RuO4 intercalations in the Sr3Ru2O7 region of the Sr3Ru 2O7 - Sr2RuO4 eutectic system
Abstract.
Mercure JF, Goh SK, O'Farrell ECT, Perry RS, Sutherland ML, Rost AW, Grigera SA, Borzi RA, Gegenwart P, MacKenzie AP, et al (2009). Quantum oscillations in the anomalous phase in Sr3Ru2O7.
Physical Review Letters,
103(17).
Abstract:
Quantum oscillations in the anomalous phase in Sr3Ru2O7
We report measurements of quantum oscillations detected in the putative nematic phase of Sr3Ru2O7. Improvements in sample purity enabled the resolution of small amplitude de Haas-van Alphen (dHvA) oscillations between two first order metamagnetic transitions delimiting the phase. Two distinct frequencies were observed, whose amplitudes follow the normal Lifshitz-Kosevich profile. Variations of the dHvA frequencies are explained in terms of a chemical potential shift produced by reaching a peak in the density of states, and an anomalous field dependence of the oscillatory amplitude provides information on domains. © 2009 the American Physical Society.
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2008
Farrell J, Perry RS, Rost A, Mercure JF, Kikugawa N, Grigera SA, Mackenzie AP (2008). Effect of electron doping the metamagnet Sr3-y Lay Ru2 O7.
Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics,
78(18).
Abstract:
Effect of electron doping the metamagnet Sr3-y Lay Ru2 O7
We study the effects of adding electrons to the conduction bands of the itinerant metamagnet Sr3 Ru2 O7 using substitution of La3+ onto the Sr2+ site. Small changes to the chemical potential have a large effect: adding only 0.03 electrons per Ru reduces the electronic specific-heat coefficient by 30%, but makes no corresponding change to the temperature (∼8 K) at which the electronic specific-heat coefficient shows its maximum. The observations are incompatible with a simple rigid-band shift, raising the possibility that a many-body resonance plays a key role in the physics of Sr3 Ru2 O7. © 2008 the American Physical Society.
Abstract.
Tamai A, Allan MP, Mercure JF, Meevasana W, Dunkel R, Lu DH, Perry RS, MacKenzie AP, Singh DJ, Shen ZX, et al (2008). Fermi Surface and van Hove Singularities in the Itinerant Metamagnet Sr3Ru2O7.
Physical Review Letters,
101(2).
Abstract:
Fermi Surface and van Hove Singularities in the Itinerant Metamagnet Sr3Ru2O7
The low-energy electronic structure of the itinerant metamagnet Sr3Ru2O7 is investigated by angle-resolved photoemission and density-functional calculations. We find well-defined quasiparticle bands with resolution-limited linewidths and Fermi velocities up to an order of magnitude lower than in single layer Sr2RuO4. The complete topography, the cyclotron masses, and the orbital character of the Fermi surface are determined, in agreement with bulk sensitive deHaas-vanAlphen measurements. An analysis of the dxy band dispersion reveals a complex density of states with vanHove singularities near the Fermi level, a situation which is favorable for magnetic instabilities. © 2008 the American Physical Society.
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2007
Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Mercure JF, Bouilly D, Chicoine M, Bentoumi G, Leonelli R, Wang YQ, Schiettekatte F (2007). Damage evolution in low-energy ion implanted silicon.
Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics,
75(7).
Abstract:
Damage evolution in low-energy ion implanted silicon
The annealing of damage generated by low-energy ion implantation in polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) and amorphous silicon (a-Si) is compared. The rate of heat release between implantation temperature and 350-500°C for Si implanted in both materials and for different ions implanted in poly-Si shows a very similar shape, namely, a featureless signal that is characteristic of a series of processes continuously distributed in terms of activation energy. Nanocalorimetry signals differ only by their amplitude, a smaller amount of heat being released after light ion implantation compared to heavier ones for the same nominal number of displaced atoms. This shows the importance of dynamic annealing of the damage generated by light ions. A smaller amount of heat is released by implanted poly-Si compared to a-Si, underlining the effect of the surrounding crystal on the dynamic annealing and the relaxation of the defects. Damage accumulation after 30-keV Si implantation is also characterized by Raman scattering and reflectometry, featuring a similar trend in a-Si, poly-Si, and monocrystalline silicon (c-Si) with a saturation around 4 Si nm2. Considering these results together with other recent experiments in c-Si and molecular dynamic simulations, it is concluded that the damage generated by low-energy ion implantation that survives dynamic annealing is structurally very similar if not identical in both crystalline and amorphous silicon, giving rise to the same kind of processes during a thermal anneal. However, the damage peak obtained by channeling saturates only above 10 Si nm2. This suggests that between 4 and 10 Si nm2, further damage occurs by structural transformation without the addition of more stored energy. © 2007 the American Physical Society.
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2006
Perry RS, Baumberger F, Balicas L, Kikugawa N, Ingle NJC, Rost A, Mercure JF, Maeno Y, Shen ZX, Mackenzie AP, et al (2006). Sr<inf>2</inf>RhO<inf>4</inf>: a new, clean correlated electron metal.
New Journal of Physics,
8Abstract:
Sr2RhO4: a new, clean correlated electron metal
We report the image furnace growth of single crystals of a novel correlated electron metal, the rhodate Sr2RhO4. Suitable annealing treatments result in residual resistivity ratios in excess of 100. Bulk specific heat and magnetic susceptibility have been measured, and both the de Haas-van Alphen and Shubnikov-de Haas effects are observable in the best crystals. The quasi-two-dimensional electronic structure has also enabled a comprehensive study of the electronic structure by angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy. The implications of our combined spectroscopic results are discussed. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.
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2005
Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Anahory Y, Schiettekatte F (2005). Concentration and ion-energy-independent annealing kinetics during ion-implanted-defect annealing.
Applied Physics Letters,
86(3), 1-3.
Abstract:
Concentration and ion-energy-independent annealing kinetics during ion-implanted-defect annealing
Nanocalorimetry revealed that the annealing kinetics of ion-implanted defects in polycrystalline Si is independent of ion fluence and implantation energy. Ion implantation of 30 keV Si-, 15 keV Si-, and 15 keV C- was performed at fluences ranging from 6× 1011 to 1× 1015 atoms cm2, followed by temperature scans between 30 and 450 °C. The rate of heat release has the same shape for all fluences, featuring no peaks but rather a smooth, continuously increasing signal. This suggests that the heat release is dominated by the annealing of highly disordered zones generated by each implantation cascade. Such annealing depends primarily on the details of the damage zone-crystal interface kinetics, and not on the point defect concentration. © 2005 American Institute of Physics.
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Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Anahory Y, Schiettekatte F (2005). Damage annealing process in implanted poly-silicon studied by nanocalorimetry: Effects of heating rate and beam flux.
Abstract:
Damage annealing process in implanted poly-silicon studied by nanocalorimetry: Effects of heating rate and beam flux
Abstract.
Mercure JF, Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Roorda S, Schiettekatte F (2005). Dependence of the structural relaxation of amorphous silicon on implantation temperature.
Physical Review B - Condensed Matter and Materials Physics,
71(13).
Abstract:
Dependence of the structural relaxation of amorphous silicon on implantation temperature
The structural relaxation of amorphous silicon, created by ion implantation, was investigated by in situ differential scanning nanocalorimetry. Nanocalorimetry provided the possibility to measure the heat released by relaxation during annealing, for a wide range of implantation fluences and beginning at cryogenic temperatures. Ion implantation was first carried out for fluences between 10-5 and 0.8 displacements per atom (DPA) at 133 K and 297 K, and then for temperatures ranging from 118 K to 463 K for fluences of 0.0185 and 0.37 DPA. A heat release saturation occurred above 0.1 DPA, and was found to depend on implantation temperature. The saturation level was extrapolated to 0 K, leading to an estimate of 28±3 k mol for the maximum enthalpy that can be stored in a-Si, relative to crystalline Si. © 2005 the American Physical Society.
Abstract.
Karmouch R, Mercure JF, Schiettekatte F (2005). Nanocalorimeter fabrication procedure and data analysis for investigations on implantation damage annealing.
Abstract:
Nanocalorimeter fabrication procedure and data analysis for investigations on implantation damage annealing
Abstract.
Zikovsky J, MacQueen L, Yelon A, Sacher E, Mercure JF, Karmouch R (2005). Nanocalorimetric investigation of light-induced metastable defects in hydrogenated amorphous silicon.
Journal of Non-Crystalline Solids,
351(46-48), 3630-3633.
Abstract:
Nanocalorimetric investigation of light-induced metastable defects in hydrogenated amorphous silicon
The electrical properties of hydrogenated amorphous silicon, a-Si:H, are degraded by light-induced metastable defects after exposure to visible light for extended periods. Using nanocalorimetry, we have directly measured the heat released when these defects are annealed. Although these low level measurements were close to the instrument noise limit, and were affected by extraneous signals from adsorbed gas, a total heat release of only a few tens of nJs could be resolved. For a heating rate of 12 000 K s-1, a single broad peak of heat release, centered at 180 °C, was observed. The integrated heat release indicates that ∼8 × 1016 defects cm-3 h-1 were generated. Polycrystalline Si samples, in which no defects are created by light-soaking, showed no heat release. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
2003
Mercure JF, Karmouch R, Anahory Y, Roorda S, Schiettekatte F (2003). Radiation damage in silicon studied in situ by nanocalorimetry.
Abstract:
Radiation damage in silicon studied in situ by nanocalorimetry
Abstract.