Abstract. Global studies of climate change impacts that use future
climate model projections also require projections of land surface changes.
Simulated land surface performance in Earth system models is often affected
by the atmospheric models' climate biases, leading to errors in land surface projections. Here we run the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator Earth System configuration (JULES-ES) land surface model with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project second-phase future projections (ISIMIP2b) bias-corrected climate model data from four global climate models (GCMs). The bias correction reduces the impact of the climate biases present in individual models. We evaluate the performance of JULES-ES against present-day observations to demonstrate its usefulness for providing required information for impacts such as fire and river flow. We include a standard JULES-ES configuration without fire as a contribution to ISIMIP2b and JULES-ES with fire as a potential future development. Simulations for gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo compare well against observations. Including fire improves the simulations, especially for ET and albedo and vegetation distribution, with some degradation in shrub cover and river flow. This configuration represents some of the most current Earth system science for land surface modelling. The suite associated with this configuration provides a basis for past and future phases of ISIMIP, providing a simulation set-up, postprocessing and initial evaluation, using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. This suite ensures that it is as straightforward, reproducible and transparent as possible to follow the protocols and participate fully in ISIMIP using JULES.
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Accurate simulation of crop water use (evapotranspiration, ET) can help crop growth models to assess the likely effects of climate change on future crop productivity, as well as being an aid for irrigation scheduling for today's growers. To determine how well maize (Zea mays L.) growth models can simulate ET, an initial inter-comparison study was conducted in 2019 under the umbrella of AgMIP (Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison and Improvement Project). Herein, we present results of a second inter-comparison study of 41 maize models that was conducted using more comprehensive datasets from two additional sites - Mead, Nebraska, USA and Bushland, Texas, USA. There were 20 treatment-years with varying irrigation levels over multiple seasons at both sites. ET was measured using eddy covariance at Mead and using large weighing lysimeters at Bushland. A wide range in ET rates was simulated among the models, yet several generally were able to simulate ET rates adequately. The ensemble median values were generally close to the observations, but a few of the models sometimes performed better than the median. Many of the models that did well at simulating ET for the Mead site did poorly for drier, windy days at the Bushland site, suggesting they need to improve how they handle humidity and wind. Additional variability came from the approaches used to simulate soil water evaporation. Fortunately, several models were identified that did well at simulating soil water evaporation, canopy transpiration, biomass accumulation, and grain yield. These models were older and have been widely used, which suggests that a larger number of users have tested these models over a wider range of conditions leading to their improvement. These revelations of the better approaches are leading to model improvements and more accurate simulations of ET.

AbstractBioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision‐making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE parametrizations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and low‐water availability (CTW‐response). Both parametrizations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with a root mean squared error of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha−1 for stalk dry matter for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, respectively. The parametrizations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the years 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35°C become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production.

AbstractTimely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent and monitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five‐level alert system, which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017–2019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017–2019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning and mitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders.

Abstract. Land-surface models (LSMs) typically simulate a single crop per year in a field or location. However, actual cropping systems are characterized by a succession of distinct crop cycles that are sometimes interspersed with long periods of bare soil. Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is particularly common in tropical regions, where the crop seasons are largely dictated by the main wet season. In this paper, we implement sequential cropping in a branch of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and demonstrate its use at sites in France and India. We simulate all the crops grown within a year in a field or location in a seamless way to understand how sequential cropping influences the surface fluxes of a land-surface model. We evaluate JULES with sequential cropping in Avignon, France, providing over 15 years of continuous flux observations (a point simulation). We apply JULES with sequential cropping to simulate the rice–wheat rotation in a regional 25 km resolution gridded simulation for the northern Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and four single-grid-box simulations across these states, where each simulation is a 25 km grid box. The inclusion of a secondary crop in JULES using the sequential cropping method presented does not change the crop growth or development of the primary crop. During the secondary crop growing period, the carbon and energy fluxes for Avignon and India are modified; they are largely unchanged for the primary crop growing period. For India, the inclusion of a secondary crop using this sequential cropping method affects the available soil moisture in the top 1.0 m throughout the year, with larger fluctuations in sequential crops compared with single-crop simulations even outside the secondary crop growing period. JULES simulates sequential cropping in Avignon, the four India locations and the regional run, representing both crops within one growing season in each of the crop rotations presented. This development is a step forward in the ability of JULES to simulate crops in tropical regions where this cropping system is already prevalent. It also provides the opportunity to assess the potential for other regions to implement sequential cropping as an adaptation to climate change.
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Abstract. Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it myriad impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local and regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales and evaluated 10 different representations of soil moisture stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high-latitude (cold-region) sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high-latitude (cold) sites. Errors that were not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savanna and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14 and the soil depth from 3.0 to 10.8 m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation (the “soil14_psi” experiments), when the critical threshold value for inducing soil moisture stress was reduced (“soil14_p0”), and when plants were able to access soil moisture in deeper soil layers (“soil14_dr*2”). For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and increased model biases but improved the simulated seasonal cycle and brought the monthly variance closer to the measured variance of LE. Further evaluation of the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress. Increasing the soil depth and plant access to deep soil moisture improved many aspects of the simulations, and we recommend these settings in future work using JULES or as a general way to improve land surface carbon and water fluxes in other models. In addition, using soil matric potential presents the opportunity to include plant functional type-specific parameters to further improve modeled fluxes.

. <p>Monitoring of soil water is essential to assess drought risk over rainfed agriculture. Soil water indicates the onset or progress of dry spells, the start of the rainy season and good periods for sowing or harvesting. Monitoring soil water over rainfed agriculture can be a valuable tool to support field activities and the knowledge of climate risks.</p><p>A network of soil moisture sensors was established over the Brazilian North East semiarid region in 2015 with measurements at 10 and 20 cm, together with rainfall and other variables in a subset of locations. The data are currently being used to assess the available water over the region in monthly bulletins and reports of potential impacts on yields.</p><p>In this work, we present a comparison of a dataset of observations from 2015 to 2019 with the soil water estimated by the JULES land surface model (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator). Overall, the model captures the spatial and temporal variability observed in the measured data well, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.6 across the domain. The performance was compared for each station, resulting in a selection of locations with significant correlation.</p><p>Based on the regression results, we derive modelled soil moisture for the time span of the JULES run (1979 to 2016). The modeled data enabled the calculation of a standardized soil moisture anomaly (SSMA). The values of SSMA in the period were in agreement with the patterns of drought in the region, especially the recent long-term drought in the Brazilian semiarid region, with significant dry years in 2012, 2013 and 2015. Further analysis will focus on comparisons with other drought indices and measures of impacts on yields at the municipality level.</p>
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Abstract. Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important
anthropogenic greenhouse gas. O3 is detrimental to plant productivity,
and it has a significant impact on crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land
Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model includes a representation
of global crops (JULES-crop) but does not have crop-specific O3 damage
parameters and applies default C3 grass O3 parameters for soybean that
underestimate O3 damage. Physiological parameters for O3 damage
in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against leaf gas-exchange
measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE)
with O3 experiment in Illinois, USA. Other plant parameters were
calibrated using an extensive array of soybean observations such as crop
height and leaf carbon and meteorological data from FLUXNET sites near
Mead, Nebraska, USA. The yield, aboveground carbon, and leaf area index (LAI)
of soybean from the SoyFACE experiment were used to evaluate the newly
calibrated parameters. The result shows good performance for yield, with the
modelled yield being within the spread of the SoyFACE observations. Although
JULES-crop is able to reproduce observed LAI seasonality, its magnitude is
underestimated. The newly calibrated version of JULES will be applied
regionally and globally in future JULES simulations. This study helps to
build a state-of-the-art impact assessment model and contribute to a more
complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production.
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Abstract. Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. O3 is detrimental to plant productivity, and it has a significant impact on crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model includes a representation of global crops (JULES-crop), but does not have crop-specific O3 damage parameters, and applies default C3 grass O3 parameters for soybean that underestimates O3 damage. Physiological parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against leaf gas-exchange measurements from the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) with O3 experiment in Illinois, USA. Other plant parameters were calibrated using an extensive array of soybean observations such as crop height, leaf carbon, etc. and meteorological data from FLUXNET sites near Mead, Nebraska, USA. The yield, aboveground carbon and leaf area index (LAI) of soybean from the SoyFACE experiment were used to evaluate the newly calibrated parameters. The result shows good performance for yield, with the modelled yield being within the spread of the SoyFACE observations. Although JULES-crop is able to reproduce observed LAI seasonality, its magnitude is underestimated. The newly calibrated version of JULES will be applied regionally and globally in future JULES simulations. This study helps to build a state-of-the-art impact assessment model and contribute to a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production.
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Abstract. Drought is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change, bringing with it a myriad of impacts on ecosystems. Plants respond to drier soils by reducing stomatal conductance, in order to conserve water and avoid hydraulic damage. Despite the importance of plant drought responses for the global carbon cycle and local/regional climate feedbacks, land surface models are unable to capture observed plant responses to soil moisture stress. We assessed the impact of soil moisture stress on simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent energy flux (LE) in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) vn4.9 on seasonal and annual timescales, and evaluated ten different representations of stress in the model. For the default configuration, GPP was more realistic in temperate biome sites than in the tropics or high latitudes/cold region sites, while LE was best simulated in temperate and high latitude/cold sites. Errors not due to soil moisture stress, possibly linked to phenology, contributed to model biases for GPP in tropical savannah and deciduous forest sites. We found that three alternative approaches to calculating soil moisture stress produced more realistic results than the default parameterization for most biomes and climates. All of these involved increasing the number of soil layers from 4 to 14, and the soil depth from 3m to 10.8m. In addition, we found improvements when soil matric potential replaced volumetric water content in the stress equation, when the onset of stress was delayed, and when roots extended deeper into the soil. For LE, the biases were highest in the default configuration in temperate mixed forests, with overestimation occurring during most of the year. At these sites, reducing soil moisture stress (with the new parameterizations mentioned above) increased LE and made the simulation worse. Further evaluation into the reason for the high bias in LE at many of the sites would enable improvements in both carbon and energy fluxes with new parameterizations for soil moisture stress.
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Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) all models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

Abstract
. We investigate the skill of the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system for two carbon cycle processes, which are strong contributors to global CO2 variability: the impact of meteorological conditions on CO2 uptake by vegetation (characterised by net primary productivity, NPP), and on fire occurrences (characterised by fire risk indices). Current seasonal forecasts of global CO2 concentrations rely on the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), combined with estimated anthropogenic emissions. NPP and fire are key processes underlying that global CO2–ENSO relationship: in the tropics, during El Niño events, CO2 uptake by vegetation is reduced and fires occur more frequently, leading to higher global CO2 levels. Our study assesses the skill of these processes in the forecast model for the first time. We use the McArthur forest fire index, calculated from daily data from several meteorological variables. We also assess a simpler fire index, based solely on seasonal mean temperature and relative humidity, to test the need for additional complexity. For NPP, the skill is high in regions that respond strongly to ENSO, such as equatorial South America in boreal winter, and northeast Brazil in boreal summer. There is also skill in some regions without a strong ENSO response. The fire risk indices show significant skill across much of the tropics, including Indonesia, southern and eastern Africa, and parts of the Amazon. We relate this skill to the underlying meteorological variables, finding that fire risk in particular follows similar patterns to relative humidity. On the seasonal-mean timescale, the McArthur index offers no benefits over the simpler fire index: they show the same relationship to burnt area and response to ENSO, and the same levels of skill, in almost all cases. Our results highlight potentially useful prediction skill, as well as important limitations, for seasonal forecasts of land-surface impacts of climate variability.

Land surface models (LSMs) typically use empirical functions to represent vegetation responses to soil drought. These functions largely neglect recent advances in plant ecophysiology that link xylem hydraulic functioning with stomatal responses to climate. We developed an analytical stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) to predict plant responses to drought. Coupling SOX to the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) LSM, we conducted a global evaluation of SOX against leaf- and ecosystem-level observations. SOX simulates leaf stomatal conductance responses to climate for woody plants more accurately and parsimoniously than the existing JULES stomatal conductance model. An ecosystem-level evaluation at 70 eddy flux sites shows that SOX decreases the sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to soil moisture, which improves the model agreement with observations and increases the predicted annual GPP by 30% in relation to JULES. SOX decreases JULES root-mean-square error in GPP by up to 45% in evergreen tropical forests, and can simulate realistic patterns of canopy water potential and soil water dynamics at the studied sites. SOX provides a parsimonious way to incorporate recent advances in plant hydraulics and optimality theory into LSMs, and an alternative to empirical stress factors.

Abstract. Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase II. The GGCMI Phase II experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological mean yield response without relying on interannual variations; we show that these are quantitatively different. Climatological mean yield responses can be readily captured with a simple polynomial in nearly all locations, with errors significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase II dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.
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The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework (LAVENDAR) implements the method of four-dimensional ensemble variational (4D-En-Var) data assimilation (DA) for land surface models. Four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation negates the often costly calculation of a model adjoint required by traditional variational techniques (such as 4D-Var) for optimizing parameters or state variables over a time window of observations. In this paper we present the first application of LAVENDAR, implementing the framework with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. We show that the system can recover seven parameters controlling crop behaviour in a set of twin experiments. We run the same experiments at the Mead continuous maize FLUXNET site in Nebraska, USA, to show the technique working with real data. We find that the system accurately captures observations of leaf area index, canopy height and gross primary productivity after assimilation and improves posterior estimates of the amount of harvestable material from the maize crop by 74 %. LAVENDAR requires no modification to the model that it is being used with and is hence able to keep up to date with model releases more easily than other DA methods.

Abstract. Accurately representing the response of ecosystems to environmental change in land surface models (LSMs) is crucial to making accurate predictions of future climate. Many LSMs do not correctly capture plant respiration and growth fluxes, particularly in response to extreme climatic events. This is in part due to the unrealistic assumption that total plant carbon expenditure (PCE) is always equal to gross carbon accumulation by photosynthesis. We present and evaluate a simple model of labile carbon storage and utilisation (SUGAR) designed to be integrated into an LSM, which allows simulated plant respiration and growth to vary independent of photosynthesis. SUGAR buffers simulated PCE against seasonal variation in photosynthesis, producing more constant (less variable) predictions of plant growth and respiration relative to an LSM that does not represent labile carbon storage. This allows the model to more accurately capture observed carbon fluxes at a large-scale drought experiment in a tropical moist forest in the Amazon, relative to the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator LSM (JULES). SUGAR is designed to improve the representation of carbon storage in LSMs and provides a simple framework that allows new processes to be integrated as the empirical understanding of carbon storage in plants improves. The study highlights the need for future research into carbon storage and allocation in plants, particularly in response to extreme climate events such as drought.
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Abstract. Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common feature, particularly for tropical regions, where the crop seasons are largely dictated by the main wet season such as the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The ASM provides the water resources for crops grown for the whole year, thereby influencing crop production outside the ASM period. Land surface models (LSMs) typically simulate a single crop per year, however, in order to understand how sequential cropping influences demand for resources, we need to simulate all of the crops grown within a year in a seamless way. In this paper we implement sequential cropping in a branch of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and demonstrate its use at Avignon, a site that uses the sequential cropping system and provides over 15-years of continuous flux observations which we use to evaluate JULES with sequential cropping. In order to implement the method in future regional simulations where there may be large variations in growing conditions, we apply the same method to four locations in the North Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to simulate the rice--wheat rotation and compare model yields to observations at these locations. JULES is able to simulate sequential cropping at Avignon and the four India locations, representing both crops within one growing season in each of the crop rotations presented. At Avignon the maxima of LAI, above ground biomass and canopy height occur at approximately the correct time for both crops. The magnitudes of biomass, especially for winter wheat, are underestimated and the leaf area index is overestimated. The JULES fluxes are a good fit to observations (r-values greater than 0.7), either using grasses to represent crops or the crop model, implying that both approaches represent the surface coverage correctly. For the India simulations, JULES successfully reproduces observed yields for the eastern locations, however yields are under estimated for the western locations. This development is a step forward in the ability of JULES to simulate crops in tropical regions, where this cropping system is already prevalent, while also providing the opportunity to assess the potential for other regions to implement it as an adaptation to climate change.
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The First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE), Kansas, US, 1987-1989, made important contributions to the understanding of energy and CO2 exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere, which heavily influenced the development of numerical land-surface modelling. Now, 30 years on, we demonstrate how the wealth of data collected during FIFE and its subsequent in-depth analysis in the literature continue to be a valuable resource for the current generation of land-surface models. To illustrate, we use the FIFE dataset to evaluate the representation of water stress on tallgrass prairie vegetation in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and highlight areas for future development. We show that, while JULES is able to simulate a decrease in net carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration during a dry spell, the shape of the diurnal cycle is not well captured. Evaluating the model parameters and results against this dataset provides a case study on the assumptions in calibrating "unstressed" vegetation parameters and thresholds for water stress. In particular, the responses to low water availability and high temperatures are calibrated separately. We also illustrate the effect of inherent uncertainties in key observables, such as leaf area index, soil moisture and soil properties. Given these valuable lessons, simulations for this site will be a key addition to a compilation of simulations covering a wide range of vegetation types and climate regimes, which will be used to improve the way that water stress is represented within JULES.

Abstract. Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase II experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase II experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. Twelve crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (``CTWN'') for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase II archive. For example, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that indicates yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions, but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.
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Abstract. The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation fRamework (LaVEnDAR) implements the method of Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation for land surface models. Four-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation negates the often costly calculation of a model adjoint required by traditional variational techniques (such as 4DVar) for optimising parameters/state variables over a time window of observations. In this paper we implement LaVEnDAR with the JULES land surface model. We show the system can recover seven parameters controlling crop behaviour in a set of twin experiments. We run the same experiments at the Mead continuous maize FLUXNET site in Nebraska, USA to show the technique working with real data. We find that the system accurately captures observations of leaf area index, canopy height and gross primary productivity after assimilation and improves posterior estimates of the amount of harvestable material from the maize crop by 74 %. LaVEnDAR requires no modification to the model that it is being used with and is hence able to keep up to date with model releases more easily than other data assimilation methods.
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) represents the land surface in the Hadley Centre climate models and in the UK Earth System Model. Recently the number of plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES was expanded from five to nine to better represent functional diversity in global ecosystems. Here we introduce a more mechanistic representation of vegetation dynamics in TRIFFID, the dynamic vegetation component of JULES, which allows for any number of PFTs to compete based solely on their height; therefore, the previous hardwired dominance hierarchy is removed. With the new set of nine PFTs, JULES is able to more accurately reproduce global vegetation distribution compared to the former five PFT version. Improvements include the coverage of trees within tropical and boreal forests and a reduction in shrubs, the latter of which dominated at high latitudes. We show that JULES is able to realistically represent several aspects of the global carbon (C) cycle. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is within the range of observations, but simulated net primary productivity (NPP) is slightly too high. GPP in JULES from 1982 to 2011 is 133PgCyrg'1, compared to observation-based estimates (over the same time period) between 1238 and 150-175PgCyrg'1. NPP from 2000 to 2013 is 72PgCyrg'1, compared to satellite-derived NPP of 55PgCyrg'1 over the same period and independent estimates of 56.214.3PgCyrg'1. The simulated carbon stored in vegetation is 542PgC, compared to an observation-based range of 400-600PgC. Soil carbon is much lower (1422PgC) than estimates from measurements ( > 2400PgC), with large underestimations of soil carbon in the tropical and boreal forests. We also examined some aspects of the historical terrestrial carbon sink as simulated by JULES. Between the 1900s and 2000s, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels enhanced vegetation productivity and litter inputs into the soils, while land use change removed vegetation and reduced soil carbon. The result is a simulated increase in soil carbon of 57PgC but a decrease in vegetation carbon of 98PgC. The total simulated loss of soil and vegetation carbon due to land use change is 138PgC from 1900 to 2009, compared to a recent observationally constrained estimate of 15550PgC from 1901 to 2012. The simulated land carbon sink is 2.01.0PgCyrg'1 from 2000 to 2009, in close agreement with estimates from the IPCC and Global Carbon Project.

The JULES-crop model (Osborne et al. 2015) is a parametrisation of crops within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), which aims to simulate both the impact of weather and climate on crop productivity and the impact of croplands on weather and climate. In this evaluation paper, observations of maize at three FLUXNET sites in Nebraska (US-Ne1, US-Ne2 and US-Ne3) are used to test model assumptions and make appropriate input parameter choices. JULES runs are performed for the irrigated sites (US-Ne1 and US-Ne2) both with the crop model switched off (prescribing leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height) and with the crop model switched on. These are compared against GPP and carbon pool FLUXNET observations. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

Abstract. JULES-crop is a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). We investigate the sources of the interannual variability in the modelled maize yield, using global runs driven by reanalysis data, with a view to understanding the impact of various approximations in the driving data and initialisation. The standard forcing dataset for JULES consists of a combination of meteorological variables describing precipitation, radiation, temperature, pressure, specific humidity and wind, at subdaily time resolution. We find that the main characteristics of the modelled yield can be reproduced with a subset of these variables and using daily forcing, with internal disaggregation to the model timestep. This has implications in particular for the use of the model with seasonal forcing data, which may not have been provided at subdaily resolution for all required driving variables. We also investigate the effect on annual yield of initialising the model with climatology on the sowing date. This approximation has the potential to considerably simplify the use of the model with seasonal forecasts, since obtaining observations or reanalysis output for all the initialisation variables required by JULES for the start date of the seasonal forecast would present significant practical challenges.
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Abstract. Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soy bean, maize and rice is presented. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soy bean at the global level, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index and canopy height better than in standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging however, more effort is needed to develop the parameterisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the specification of the yield gap to enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.
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